Week 8 NFL picks (just 364 more days to the Breeders’ Cup)
I’m playing an abnormally high number of NFL games this week (8) because I am feeling post-Breeders’ Cup withdrawal, so the action will help me shake the blues.
Indianapolis (-6.5) at Carolina - I am concerned by the injury situations of both Marvin Harrison and Tony Ugoh. Despite that, Indy’s defense is healthy, and that makes the Panthers an automatic bet-against in my book thanks to the Vinny Testaverde factor. You can not get ready for a team like in as little time as Vinny has had, and I don’t care how Disney-like his story has been. Pick: Indy.
New York Giants (-9.5) vs. Miami in London - Given the recent play of both teams this spread seems about accurate. Add in the season ending injuries to Ronnie Brown and Renaldo Hill, and the absence of Zach Thomas, and I am more than happy to do the oftentimes unthinkable - put my faith in Eli manning. Pick: Giants.
Oakland (+6.5) at Tennessee - I was basing my pick on this game on one thing - reports out of Titans camp on the status of Vince Young. He’s apparently fine. The Raiders defense has been fading in recent weeks, and Young’s mobility and creativity ids the kind of thing that can cause a defense like that to have a very bad day. Pick: Tennessee.
Philadelphia (-1) at Minnesota - I like to take a first stab at handicapping games before I see the spread. When I looked at this one I thought that the Eagles would win a close game because Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass and because the Minnesota quarterbacking situation is cloudy at this point. This spread fit well with my theory. Pick: Philadelphia.
Buffalo (+3) at New York Jets - When you get to take the best team and the points then it’s a no-brainer. Buffalo is one crazy finish against Dallas away from being unbeaten in three. The Jest haven’t won since they saw the even more pathetic Dolphins. The Bills are playing with heart. That makes one team. Pick: Buffalo.
Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay’s defense will be able to give Quinn Gray fits, and Jeff Garcia will be as surgically precise as he has been all year against a Jaguars defense that had a pretty rough week last week. Pick: Tampa Bay.
New Orleans (-1) at San Francisco - I desperately want to like the 49ers, but they are making that a very tough thing to do this year. The Saints’ offense is finally showing signs of life, and the Niners have made competent offenses look very good in recent weeks. Pick: New Orleans.
Washington (+17) at New England - The Pats are better than the Redskins. Probably way better. 17 points against a decent team is way, way too many, though. I’ll take a shot with Washington. Pick: Redskins.
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POSTED IN: NFL, Selections
4 opinions for Week 8 NFL picks (just 364 more days to the Breeders’ Cup)
Danny
Oct 28, 2007 at 2:53 pm
I like a lot of your picks…but I have a ? 4 u! What’s your belief on betting spread runs.. i.e. The pats r 7-0 ATS and their record against the nfc is pretty stout!! I know about tom brady’s stat 0-1 against the redskins. So my ? is should u really bet against a team that is 7-0 ATS???
T.O.
Oct 28, 2007 at 3:03 pm
I have no problem with picking against them in this case. An ATS streak is a good sign that a team is playing really well (or really badly), but it is only relevant if the lines are accurate. The Pats are a huge public team, and I think that public excitement has driven this line too high. This is the same basic line as the Pats had against Miami last week. Are we honestly supposed to believe that the ‘Skins and Fins are comparable in any way? The Pats won’t go 16-0 ATS (16-0 straight up is a different question entirely), and this is as good a place as any to not cover one.
Danny
Oct 29, 2007 at 5:27 pm
I’m Glad I didn’t listen 2 u in this case!! I’m gonna ride the pat’s hard for the rest of the season!! I Like your pick tonight and will definitely be a regular on this site!! I hope u don’t mind… We’ll have lots to blog about!!!
T.O.
Oct 29, 2007 at 5:32 pm
Thanks, Danny. I look forward to seeing you around.
The bet on the Redskins certainly didn’t work out, but I am still okay with the decision making process behind it.
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