Davidson (-3) at Winthrop – Off the top I’ll say that I like Davidson here. The Wildcats are playing well, especially on the road, and they match up well. Winthrop is at the top of the Big South, but that doesn’t mean too much. Of course, Davidson has faced only marginally better competition in the Southern conference. It comes down, then, to three things;

1) Non-conference competition – Winthrop has played a few decent teams, and they have a win over Miami that looks better after the Hurricanes stunned Duke. They haven’t played nearly the level of competition that Davidson has, though. The non-conference schedule holds more importance in my mind when the teams don’t play regularly, and these two programs have never met.

2) Stephen Curry – He’s one of the best players in the country, and the Davidson guard could be the difference here. Winthrop can’t score at all, but Davidson’s defense is only average, so the Wildcats won’t be able to exploit that edge as much as they could. Winthrop plays solid defense, but they haven’t seen an offense as strong as Davidson’s, or a player as good as Curry. I’m not confident that Winthrop is ready for the step up in class.

3) ATS records – It’s not Winthrop’s fault that they have only played three games with a spread, but it makes it difficult to know how they perform when bettors’ money is on the line. It also means that it is harder for the books to set an accurate line. On the other hand, Davidson, at 15-9 ATS, is a proven performer that has been decently consistent for bettors.

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Oregon (-10) at Arizona – I’m going to play this game because I have a good streak going on Thursday nights, and to give you all something to read, but it’s one I would probably pass most days. On the surface, I really like Oregon here. The Wildcats only have an average defense, and they look better than they really are thanks to their two game winning streak. They have won two in a row by beating up on struggling teams – Washington and UCLA. In both cases they gave up more points than I would have liked. I think that the Ducks will use their offensive balance to score, and Arizona and their one-dimensional, pass-only offense will struggle to keep up. Oregon has everything to play for here – they want to stay in the number two spot for their shot at the national title, and they are avenging an embarrassing lost to Arizona last year. Oregon has a clear edge, and I am comfortable with this line.

One thing makes me very uneasy here. The line opened at 13, a large majority of bettors are on Oregon, yet the line is falling significantly and fairly quickly. That either means that the books aren’t afraid of Oregon action for some reason because they are confident in Arizona, or that the smart money is pouring in on Arizona. Either way, the size of the line drop given the situation is why I would normally pass this game. For fun, though, I’ll make a pick. Pick: Oregon.

UPDATE: What a disaster. Dennis Dixon went down early, Brady Leaf played like we have come to expect from the Leaf family, and yet another number two has gone down the drain. There clearly was a good reason to pass this game.

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The college football schedule is set up nicely this week for interest – one game each night on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I ignored last night’s game between Rice and Southern Mississippi because, well, it was Rice and Southern Mississippi. Tonight’s game between Kentucky and South Carolina, though, is one I have had circled on my calendar for a few weeks. It is the first real chance we get to see if the upstart Wildcats are for real. Here’s my analysis:

Kentucky (+4.5) at South Carolina – This is a tough game. The Wildcats have an inflated record by playing three weak teams and two high profile teams with serious flaws. South Carolina is a fairly legitimate team, though they were clearly outclassed when they stepped up in competition to face LSU. Much is being made of the effectiveness of the SC pass defense, currently ranked first in the country. While this is true, I think that it is a bit of a hollow stat. They haven’t faced an offense that is great at passing yet, and they certainly haven’t seen anyone like Andre Woodson. Georgia isn’t exactly a passing powerhouse, and yet Matthew Stafford passed more more than his season average of yards against SC. I think that Woodson will still be able to move the ball, though maybe not quite as much as normal. The Wildcats have a solid pass defense which should be able to contain Chris Smelley (best name in college football? Or is it Casey Dick?) reasonably well. It looks like Kentucky has a bad run defense, but those numbers are skewed because they got torched on the ground by Arkansas. There is no shame in that, and South Carolina will offer nothing near that caliber. It comes down to this in my mind – Kentucky will still be able to score, though perhaps not as much. South Carolina has struggled to score a lot at the best of times, so I don’t see how they stay a touchdown or more ahead. That means that if they win they are most likely to win by a field goal in my mind, and that makes Kentucky +4.5 attractive. Pick: Kentucky +4.5

UPDATE: Oops. This game showed the reason why coaches frown on turnovers. Kentucky would have been competitive, and may very well have won, if they didn’t insist on turning the ball over every time they touched it. When you go over 200 yards in rushing and passing you shouldn’t lose by 15. I’ll be curious to see how the Heisman buzz for Woodson reacts to this game. Not well, I would guess. I was also somewhat impressed by Chris Smelley. Not perfect, but I doubt that we’ll see Blake Mitchell again.

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