The other way that you can know that this is a huge game is that the line came out on Wednesday night for a Saturday night game. That has happened, well, once this year that I am aware of. Memphis, the home team, has been installed as six point favorites.

Before I spend any time looking at this game I should be honest – I am a huge Memphis fan, and I have had a problem with Tennessee ever since Peyton Manning played there, so my objectivity isn’t all that it could be. That being said, I have to say that I was a little bit surprised to see Memphis favored by that much. I was expecting something more in the range of three or four points. I would lean towards taking Memphis, and the image that sticks in my mind is of how they dismantled Georgetown in the second half. I also don’t think that Tennessee will be able to play zone defense effectively enough to shut down the Memphis offense. I would certainly understand the opinion that the spread is a bit too big, though. I would anticipate that it will shrink a bit, and I would be inclined to wait a bit to see how it moves before I made a bet.

The one thing that excites me most about this game is how both teams came in. They played games on Wednesday night against lesser opponents – Tulane for Memphis, and Auburn for Tennessee. It would have been understandable to see the teams look beyond the easy games and put in a sub-par effort. Instead, both teams played well, won easily, and covered the large spreads. The focus isn’t that surprising given that both teams are exceptionally well coached, but it is still exciting to think that both teams are heading into the big game in top form. I’ll be counting the seconds until this one tips off.

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Unlike Saturday, these games do absolutely nothing to excite me. That doesn’t mean I won’t pick them, though. I am a wild man.

New York Giants (+2.5) at Tampa Bay – I have gone back and forth on this one, but in the end I just have to go with the Bucs. I don’t like where the Giants are mentally after losing to the Pats despite laying it all out, and I don’t like their injury status. I am concerned about the Giants pass rush, but not as concerned as the media seems to be. In the end, I just like the Bucs better, and I think that this line presents some value for them. Pick: Tampa Bay.

Tennessee (+9.5) at San Diego – This is the worst game of the weekend. Tennessee is far from healthy. Even at full strength they can’t score. San Diego can, and they have a serious swagger these days. I think the Titans will fold, and the Chargers will run all over them. I don’t trust the Chargers in general, and I hate laying this many points with them, but that’s the only way to go here. Pick: San Diego.

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Tennessee (-3) vs. Wisconsin (Tuesday, Jan. 1, 11:00 a.m. ET) – I had no problem coming to a conclusion in this game. Sometimes that’s kind of scary. Regardless, I like Tennessee. In recent weeks Tennessee tore up the SEC before falling to LSU in the championship. Wisconsin didn’t look competitive against Ohio State, and then finished with a hollow win over a short-handed Michigan and a meaningless victory over Minnesota. Tennessee played a tougher schedule and looked better doing it – especially later on in the season. At this spread I think Tennessee provides real value. Pick: Tennessee.

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Oakland (-11) at Green Bay – I can’t believe I am actually going to take the Raiders, but it’s true. I think that 11 points is too many here. The Raiders have won two in a row, and they are running the ball very well. Until he proves me wrong I can’t believe that Favre is 100% healthy after his injury last week. I think that the Packers will win, but this is too many points. Pick: Oakland.

Tampa Bay (-3) at Houston – The Texans are not in a good place right now. They have lost two in a row, and they haven’t looked good doing it. Tampa Bay has had every reason to struggle this year, but they keep finding ways to win. Jeff Garcia may be back in action this week, and even if he isn’t Tampa Bay finds ways to get by. They are hungry and eager to put their division out of the grasp of others, and that should be enough to cover here. Pick: Tampa Bay.

Minnesota (-8.5) at San Francisco - I have a soft spot for San Francisco, but they are in a terrible spot here. Minnesota is incredible on the ground, and they have more confidence offensively than almost any team in the league right now. The Niners are weak on defense, and essentially incompetent against the run. Minnesota’s sprint to the playoffs continues here in a big way. Pick: Minnesota.

Cleveland (-3) at New York Jets – Cleveland has to be upset, because Kellen Winslow was the victim of a bad call that cost them the game last week. They are a proud team, and they are still very much in the playoff hunt. They need a win here, and I expect them to come out very hungry and feast on a vulnerable New York team. Pick: Cleveland.

San Diego (pick) at Tennessee – I have no faith in the Titans. San Diego is suddenly playing with confidence and passion that was lacking early. The combination of those two factors make the Chargers very attractive at this price. Pick: San Diego.

UPDATE: Nice wins by Minnesota, Cleveland and San Diego overcame incompetent performances by Tampa Bay and Oakland to move me to 3-2 on the weekend. I’ll certainly take that.

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Central Michigan (-3) vs. Miami of Ohio – The MAC Championship won’t be the highest profile game of the day, but it should be a good one. I really like the Central Michigan offense. Dan LeFevour is a pleasure to watch at QB, and the unit is piling up the points lately. The defense can’t stop anything, but I’m not convinced that Miami has the offense to keep pace if this becomes a shootout. On a neutral field that should have a strong Central Michigan presence I like the Chippewas here. Pick: Central Michigan.

Tennessee (+7.5) vs. LSU – There are a lot of reasons in my mind to like Tennessee here. LSU lost some swagger, and their shot at a title, last weekend. Their coach is on the way out the door. Tennessee is playing well over the last month, and should have a huge boost coming off an emotional win against Kentucky last year. Tennessee QB Matt Flynn is questionable, and probably won’t be at his best even if he does play. I’m not confident that Tennessee will win, but I do like their chances of of keeping it close, and getting that extra half point on top of the touchdown makes them good value. Pick: Tennessee.

Missouri (+3) vs. Oklahoma - The top ranked team in the country is an underdog at a neutral site – this truly is a bizarre season. Missouri is in top form, they have the ultimate motivation to play for, and they showed last week that they can handle the pressure of huge games. Oklahoma struggled badly against Texas Tech, and the Mizzou offense is similarly elusive and explosive. It would be entirely different if the Tigers were heavily favored, but taking them and the points seems like a pretty solid idea. Pick: Missouri.

Arizona (+6.5) at Arizona State - USC will probably have the Pac-10 title wrapped up by the time this game kicks off, but I don’t expect that to diminish the effort the Sun Devils will show here.  For one, this is a huge rivalry for the team, and a chance to redeem themselves after a frustrating loss to USC. They also have a chance to play in a very big bowl game, and that would be a great way to cap a an outstanding an unexpected first year under Dennis Erickson. This line is as low as it is because Arizona has won three straight, but they have not been against good competition, so I am not buying it. Pick: Arizona State.

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Indianapolis (-6.5) at Carolina – I am concerned by the injury situations of both Marvin Harrison and Tony Ugoh. Despite that, Indy’s defense is healthy, and that makes the Panthers an automatic bet-against in my book thanks to the Vinny Testaverde factor. You can not get ready for a team like in as little time as Vinny has had, and I don’t care how Disney-like his story has been. Pick: Indy.

New York Giants (-9.5) vs. Miami in London - Given the recent play of both teams this spread seems about accurate. Add in the season ending injuries to Ronnie Brown and Renaldo Hill, and the absence of Zach Thomas, and I am more than happy to do the oftentimes unthinkable – put my faith in Eli manning. Pick: Giants.

Oakland (+6.5) at Tennessee – I was basing my pick on this game on one thing – reports out of Titans camp on the status of Vince Young. He’s apparently fine. The Raiders defense has been fading in recent weeks, and Young’s mobility and creativity ids the kind of thing that can cause a defense like that to have a very bad day. Pick: Tennessee.

Philadelphia (-1) at Minnesota – I like to take a first stab at handicapping games before I see the spread. When I looked at this one I thought that the Eagles would win a close game because Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass and because the Minnesota quarterbacking situation is cloudy at this point. This spread fit well with my theory. Pick: Philadelphia.

Buffalo (+3) at New York Jets – When you get to take the best team and the points then it’s a no-brainer. Buffalo is one crazy finish against Dallas away from being unbeaten in three. The Jest haven’t won since they saw the even more pathetic Dolphins. The Bills are playing with heart. That makes one team. Pick: Buffalo.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay’s defense will be able to give Quinn Gray fits, and Jeff Garcia will be as surgically precise as he has been all year against a Jaguars defense that had a pretty rough week last week. Pick: Tampa Bay.

New Orleans (-1) at San Francisco – I desperately want to like the 49ers, but they are making that a very tough thing to do this year. The Saints’ offense is finally showing signs of life, and the Niners have made competent offenses look very good in recent weeks. Pick: New Orleans.

Washington (+17) at New England – The Pats are better than the Redskins. Probably way better. 17 points against a decent team is way, way too many, though. I’ll take a shot with Washington. Pick: Redskins.

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Illinois (-3.5) at Iowa – When I was first looking at this game on the schedule this week, I had Illinois favored by 6.5 (and still attractive at that price). Since I get the extra field goal here this one is a no-brainer. Illinois is a team playing with passion, and passion is something that Iowa hasn’t had for well over a year. Pick: Illinois.

Tennessee (-7) at Mississippi State – Tennessee has been on a roll the last two weeks and I expect that to continue here. I don’t consider Auburn to be an elite team, so Mississippi State has played two elite SEC teams – South Carolina and LSU – and they haven’t been competitive with either here. I expect more of the same. Pick: Tennessee.

South Carolina (-6) at North Carolina – It is amazing to me that these two teams have never played before. I suspect that North Carolina will hope after this game that they never play again. The Gamecocks have won by more than seven against better opponents the last two weeks. They are an excellent 4-1 against the spread. North Carolina had a shocking win over Miami last week, but that should set them up for a letdown, and Miami is considerably more flawed than SC. Pick: South Carolina.

UPDATE: Over the course of the season there are inevitable periods of frustration. This is one of them. I can’t seem to get any traction the last couple of weeks Tennessee did as I hoped, but Illinois really didn’t, and South Carolina managed only the bare minimum.. That leaves me at 1-1-1 this week, and very hungry for success after two off weeks. Surviving periods like this with a solid attitude is what makes a sports bettor successful.

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