1. What the hell was that? I didn’t see that coming, and if you say you did then you are probably lying.

2. I’m not sure Brady has ever been hit like that. Judging by how he reacted to it, I would guess that he hasn’t. The most shocking part wasn’t the number of times he had to pick himself up, it was the number of pretty awful passes he threw as a result of the constant pressure.

3. That non-sack of Manning that essentially sealed the game was one of the sorriest things I have ever seen. There is no excuse for that from the Raiders, never mind an undefeated Super Bowl favorite.

4. Nice catch, David Tyree. Enjoy your 15 seconds.

5. I still hate Eli. I don’t see that changing.

6. How is it that the Patriots didn’t have a way figured out to contain the pass rush when they had two weeks to prepare? That’s the biggest story of the game in my mind. I was watching the game with a couple of people who aren’t even close to football fans, yet by about the second snap they had figured out that the Giants were going to rush Brady every time he touched the ball. It wasn’t a secret.

7. I was interested to see how quickly the Pats gave up on the run. It was working well in the playoffs, but it didn’t start well in the big game, and they moved away from it. As a result, especially with the Kevin Faulk hamstring tweak, the play seemed to be a pass to Welker every time out. It’s not hard to look like a defensive genius when you just have to defend the same play every time out.

8. I keep hearing about how this was one of the all-time great Super Bowls. I’m not buying it. The first half was defensively impressive, but the offenses did little to help themselves out. The third quarter was sloppy. The fourth quarter was entertaining, and the last scoring drives by both teams were impressive, but for me that payoff at the end doesn’t outweigh the disappointment and boredom of early on. As good as the Giants were defensively, a game can’t be great when the teams don’t play like they can, and the Pats were a shadow of themselves. That was partly because of the Giants, but only partly.

9. The Patriots’ decision on what to do with Randy Moss just got much harder.

10. It seems poetic that the biggest total in Super Bowl history resulted in the biggest margin that two teams have gone under the total in Super Bowl history. The teams went under by 24 points.

11. That’s four unders in a row after the games had gone over in six of eight. Trend watchers will have to adjust expectations.

12. Man, do I hate the Mannings.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

1. I can’t get over the fact that Bill Belichick and company have seen Eli Manning once already, so they know what to expect from him. If you listen to the media talk, Manning has suddenly surpassed his brother in excellence. I don’t buy that at all. I think he is a suspect quarterback, and I think that the Patriots have the ability to plan and scheme better than anyone, so they will be able to shut him down.

2. I think that the running game is going to be more of a wash than it is initially thought. The Giants have the better numbers, but the Patriots have been much improved in recent weeks. The Giants were not hugely effective on the ground last time the teams met, and I don’t expect much more here. Ultimately, they have to rely on two inexperienced backs playing on a huge stage against season defensive veterans for New England. The mistakes won’t be made by the Patriots. The difference is that the Giants need a strong running game to succeed, while the Patriots have shown repeatedly that they can win without one.

3. Despite what Plaxico Burress claims, the passing game is a total mismatch. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the league, and he has a ridiculous number of weapons. The Patriots can ruthlessly pick apart teams when they want to, and they will certainly want to here.

4. Experience matters, and the Patriots have all of it. Their players will be more prepared for the game, they are better coached, and they have played under much more pressure all year. Despite what people claim, the Giants haven’t proven that they can come through when it truly matters, and they have way more vulnerability than the Patriots do.

5. I think that the Patriots feel like they have been disrespected for a while now. They aren’t going to like that. They have been an ATS disaster for a couple of months, but they haven’t had much to play for and have gotten a bit complacent. They won’t be this week. I look for them to come out and try to crush the soul out of the Giants like they did against some of the other legitimate contenders they faced during the season – Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Diego, Cincinnati.

6. The public likes the Giants. Two thirds of bets placed have been on the underdog, yet the line hasn’t moved significantly since the first move down from 14. That strikes me as a bit odd, and it would make me uncomfortable to be on the same side as so much dumb money.

7. The Patriots are much, much better. They have a huge advantage at quarterback, they have a better offensive line, they have much better receivers, their running backs are comparable, they have a better secondary, and their coaching staff is far superior. On top of all that, they have not lost this year, and they have toyed with top teams when they have chosen to. I was going to bet that the Giants could keep it close, but ultimately I couldn’t justify saying that a decidedly inferior team was only going to lose by a bit.

There it is then. I will take the Giants and the points. It is down to 11.5 in some places now, but the most attractive price in my mind is -12 -104 at 5Dimes.

Whether you are with me or against me, enjoy the game – drink too much, eat too much, and don’t lose too much. I’ll be back after the game with my 12 observations on what happened.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

It’s incredible to see the number of Super Bowl prop bets that are being offered by books this year. You can bet on almost everything from the relevant and interesting to the truly ridiculous. As hard as it is to believe, though, there are quite a few bets that I was looking to make that I couldn’t find anyone offering action on. Here, then, are the 25 bets I wish I could make, with my chosen side in brackets. If anyone wants a piece of any of them just drop me a line.

Percentage of ads that will leave me with a sense of general disappointment (over)

Percentage of the game that will leave me with a sense of general disappointment (over)

Number of times that Joe Buck says something mind-numbingly obvious (way over)

Number of times Troy Aikman will not so subtly suggest that he is a better quarterback than Tom Brady will ever be (over)

Blood alcohol level of Tom Petty when he takes the stage (so far over that most human beings would be dead)

Number of times I will get frustrated by something someone I am watching the game with says (over)

Chances that I will throw something at that person (over)

Length of time my wife won’t talk to me after I throw something at one of our guests (over)

Number of times I say to myself during the game ‘okay, just one more Dorito’. (over)

Times we will hear about Randy Moss’ troubled past, and his rebirth after the Pats took a chance on him (over)

Times I almost throw up my Doritos after hearing about Moss (over)

What will we hear more – Plaxico Burress is tall, or Wes Welker is small? (Welker – and I’ll parlay it with ‘Brandon Jacobs is a bull’)

Color of Tom Coughlin’s face by halftime (some shade of purple)

Chances that Bill Belichick looks like a homeless man on the sidelines (over – this is a stone cold lock)

Over/under on the number of presidential candidates in the crowd (most of the ones that didn’t drop out this week)

Number of those candidates that could have named the teams playing in the game before they entered the stadium (all of them)

Number of stars of Fox shows that just happen to be sitting in the crowd watching the game (does Fox have stars?)

Number of American Idol plugs in the first half (I’d confidently take the over regardless of what the number was)

Number of times the words Brady and Hall-of-fame will be used in the same sentence (I’ll take the over)

Number of times the words Strahan and orthodontist will be used in the same sentence (definitely the under)

Point in the game at which I will first look at my watch and wonder why it feels like the game has been going on for three days (first quarter)

Number of times the words maturity and Eli will be used in the same sentence (over)

Number of times during the game I will mumble the phrase ‘I hate the Mannings’ (way over)

Amount I will have to spend on therapy if another Manning wins a Super Bowl (way, way over – and I doubt my insurance will cover it)

Amount of time it will take, if the Giants win, for Tiki Barber to run on to the field, grab the Lombardi Trophy, and claim that he is the only reason they won (under)

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

Will the game ever be tied after the first score? – Yes +130 – $250 – The score has been tied twice in the Pats two playoff games and four times in the Giants three games, so the price seems to be right to bet that it will happen again here.

Team to have most first downs in first quarter – Patriots -2 +130 – $250 – The way I see this game being played out is that the Pats won’t let the Giants hang around early like they did last time. That means that I see them getting off to a strong start on both sides of the ball, and that makes this bet good value.

First scoring play of the game will be? – Patriots field goal 7/2 – $250 – I don’t necessarily think that this is what will happen, but the price is much more attractive than any kind of touchdown, and they certainly could have to settle for three points if the Giants defense is feeling good.

Team to record first sack? - Giants +120 – $250 – I know Tom Brady can be hard to get to, but getting better than even money betting that the best pass rush in league will get the first sack seems like a decent deal to me.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

Eli Manning’s first pass of the game will be incomplete – 8/5 – $150 – I think that Manning will be uncomfortable early on, and the Patriots defense  will do everything they can to keep him that way. That makes this price attractive to me.

Will Randy Moss score two or more TDs? – Yes – +250 – $150 – Manning has had a rough playoff stretch, but he had eight multi-touchdown games on the season, and he torched the Giants last time out.

Donte Stallworth over three receptions – +115 – $150 – I like the price, and I think Stallworth will be looked at as a real option if Moss can’t get free.

Stephen Gostkowski over 8.5 points – +110 – $150 – The Patriots’ kicker had 12 points the last time the teams played.

Most TD Passes – Tom Brady – -1.5 +160 – $250 – Needless to say, this bet reflects my belief that this is going to be a one-sided game, and that the imbalance in quarterback play will reflect that.

Player to score first pats TD – Randy Moss – 5/2 – $150 – I think the Pats are going to go to Moss early and often after his ineffectiveness two weeks in a row. Going to him early will show that the Pats don’t fear or respect the Giants.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

2. Momentum. I’m not sure that I believe in momentum in football, but if it exists then the Giants have it. They are playing truly possessed football of late – their run through the playoffs has been nothing short of remarkable.

3. Manning is limiting mistakes. The Giants get into trouble when Eli Manning tries to do too much. He is an above average quarterback, but not by a wide margin. In the playoffs he has done what he knows he can do, and that has meant accuracy, fewer turnovers and far more effective overall play. If he keeps that up he can keep this game competitive.

4. The pass rush. The Giants had no luck getting to Brady last time, but the quarterback isn’t likely to be at his full mobillity. If the pass rush can get to him and bother him then they can neutralize the mid and deep passing games that are so potent. If the Giants can’t do it then no one can.

5. Ahmad Bradshaw. A rookie kick returner rarely factors in significantly, but Bradshaw has become much more than that. When he showed late in the year that he was a legitimate running back he created a real matchup problem. He is small and lightning fast. Brandon Jacobs is a bulldozer. Those two trading off carries will help keep the Pats defense off balance, and could leaad to the team to success on the ground.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

2. Depth. The offense is scary. They have pass catching threats everywhere, Brady will get the time he needs, and they can run at will. On the defensive side they aren’t quite as scary, but they can still give the Giants nightmares. They are more talented in a significant majority of positions.

3. Experience. Just think about this – this is the fourth time in seven years that the Pats have been here. The roster and coaching staff has undergone changes along the way, but the core is the same, the attitude is the same, and the hunger is stronger than ever. It is not a coincidence that the Patriots have been as consistently outstanding as they have been, and they’re ongoing excellence is a compelling reason to support them.

4. 19-0. The chance to be the first team to do something that seems impossible has been motivating this team all year, and it will be a huge motivator in this game. They could decide that they really want to put an exclamation point on the victory, and that would mean a cover.

5. The public doesn’t believe it. For the first time all year, the public is firmly on the side of the other guys. The spread is seen as too big by bettors, and more than two-thirds of bets have been on the Giants. Going against the public is never a bad thing, and especially not in a game where so much of the public money isn’t backed by a lot of rational thought.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

•  This system makes some impressive and fairly unbelievable claims. I don’t buy that it is as good as it claims, but it is interesting. For what it’s worth, the Patriots are ahead by more than a 2-1 margin when you add up the points.
• This isn’t perfect or particularly insightful, but it is a decent overview of the matchups.
• More on walking-cast-gate. I strongly suspect that this will be the most overblown, irrelevant story in the history of overblown, irrelevant Super Bowl stories.
• Stunning news about Tom Brady – apparently he isn’t a zombie. Who knew?
• According to the result of 10,001 simulations, the final score will be 30-16 for the Pats. That’s a cover.
• Tickets to the big game aren’t cheap – $4,300 on average from scalpers.
• Every line and total in Super Bowl history – if you stare at it long enough you start seeing patterns.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

1. Don’t fear the favorites – It may seem like a good idea to fade the favorite because the public likes the favorite so much. That isn’t a good idea. In the previous 41 Super Bowls the favorite has covered 24 times, and two games have been a push. That means that the favorite has covered 61.5 percent of the time. That’s pretty overwhelming.

2. Have a good reason to back the NFC - the lesser conference (for now, anyway) has won just twice in the last ten Super Bowls, and the AFC is 6-3-1 ATS in that time. Teams with a winning record in the AFC this year were an overwhelming 25-7 against the NFC.

3. Ignore injury reports – No team in their right mind would tell the truth about the health of their players at this time of year. Making your picks assuming that everyone who is active will play and contribute gives you the best chance of avoiding being burned.

4. Momentum is crap – Teams are forced to take a week off before the Super Bowl, and they are subjected to more scrutiny and distractions than is imaginable. I’m not sure I really believe in momentum in football at the best of times, but it sure isn’t a factor in this game. Make your decision based on which team is better, not which team is hotter.

5. Rushing will likely be the deciding factor - It doesn’t matter how much the teams like to pass – the game is probably going to come down to who runs better. Think about this – the team that has had the most rushing attempts has won 29 of 41 Super Bowls. If you are going to focus on just one thing, spend your time figuring out who will run more instead of which set of receivers has a bigger advantage.

6. Ignore the hype – With so much time to fill, the media finds favorite stories and pet theories every year about what will impact the outcome of the game. They are almost never right. Ignore what everyone is saying and make the decisions that make you happy.

7. Pretend Media Day never happened – Media day is a waste of time. Players are forced to be interviewed, and many will say whatever they think people will want to hear. There is a good chance that what you hear on media day is true, but there is just as good a chance that it is totally made up. Save yourself a headache and forget about the whole thing.

8. Ignore practice reports – There is a media presence at every practice in the week before Super Bowl, and you will often hear enthusiastic reports about what a team is or isn’t doing during those practices. Do you honestly believe that a team getting ready for a game this big is going to tip its hand about anything meaningful in an open practice?

9. Go with your gut – In the end, the best way to approach the game is to go with what you feel. There are a million different ways to handicap this unique game, but few are significantly more reliable than coming to a conclusion your mind can run with and going with it.

10. Just have fun with it – Trying to effectively handicap the Super Bowl is ridiculous. There are so many intangibles, so many factors that normally don’t have to be dealt with, and so much uncertainty around the quality of the line that the game would be an automatic pass if it were played any other week. Bet this game for fun and bragging rights, not to prove that you are a handicapping superstar.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

1. Inevitability – In the dictionary under inevitable it says ‘Patriots win 2008 Super Bowl’. I like sports for the drama, and I see about as much drama in this as in an elementary school production of Cats.

2. Eli Manning – I freaking hate this guy. I live in dread of the thought that I will have to spend the next two weeks listening to how this guy has matured and led this team to the promised land. They’ll miss the fact that he is still only barely above average as a QB, and that the Giants follow a long line of teams that got to the big game only because their QB made fewer mistakes than the other guys. Eli didn’t win those games for his team – he just didn’t lose them.

3. The rest of the Mannings – The royal family of football make me so sick I might choke on my Oreo. The coverage of their every move was mind-numbing enough when three of them had played in the NFL. Now that two of them have made the Super Bowl it will be the most nauseating thing I have been subjected to since we all got to learn Jerome Bettis was from Detroit every three seconds for two weeks before the Super Bowl was played there.

4. Glendale, Arizona – The new home of the Arizona Cardinals is a beautiful stadium, but it is located in the heart of suburban hell. One huge mall full of massive, soulless stores is right beside another, covering miles and miles of desert wasteland. I’m not going to the game and frankly I’m glad. A guy can only handle so many Target stores.

5. Brett Favre isn’t there – Don’t get me wrong – I’m not a big Favre fan or a Green Bay backer. I just know that we are going to be subjected to endless speculation about the playing future of the ageless one, and if he made the Super Bowl the whole thing could have been held off for two more blissful weeks.

6. The coaches – Tom Coughlin is good at his job, and Bill Belichick is a coaching ninja. The problem, though, is that they have the combined personality of a sheet of plywood. They won’t say anything interesting, and they won’t let their players say much, either. This will be two weeks of misdirection and doublespeak.

7. The spread – The Super Bowl is supposed to be the ultimate showdown of the two best teams in the world. The two best teams would not have an opening spread of two touchdowns. Spreads that big are the ones I ignore on principle in the regular season, but now its the only game in town.

8. Deja vu – I’ve seen this game before a month ago and it wasn’t that interesting then. The Giants played well but ultimately showed that they just weren’t good enough. That time they were on their home field. Now they have to travel and play against the most focused team in the history of sports. I don’t see why I should believe that this game is going to be closer or more interesting.

9. Tom Brady as God – Don’t get me wrong, I love Brady as I do every former Michigan player. He is the best quarterback in the league in my books, and with all due respect to Eli’s big brother I don’t think it is particularly close. Despite that, the talk of Brady’s brilliance over the next two weeks will be enough to make me puke. Reporters will be tripping over themselves to find metaphors to describe their man-crushes and there will be no escaping it.

10. No Shockey – Jeremy Shockey is the only guy on either team that could have been relied on to really do something truly stupid in the lead up to the game. With him out of action the chances of a total meltdown are low. Where’s the fun in that?

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet