Atlanta (+14.5) at Tampa Bay – I said I would pass on the Falcons, and I am a big Jeff Garcia guy, but this line is too much to ignore. Tampa Bay struggled badly last week, they aren’t consistent, and Atlanta is going to be fired up after the Petrino debacle. The Falcons are not good, but I think that their rage can keep them within two touchdowns here. Pick: Atlanta.

Indianapolis (-10.5) at Oakland – I don’t like backing the Colts this year, but they are in a good spot here. Their offense is on fire, and the Raiders have a world of troubles. They are experimenting at quarterback, Lane Kiffin is reportedly flirting with at least one college team, and the season is lost. Pick: Indy.

Cincinnati (-8) at San Francisco – As is the theme this week, Cincinnati is not a team I like to bet on. That being said, their offense is looking better recently, and San Francisco is a mess everywhere, but especially at quarterback this week. I’m not convinced that there is a ton of value in this pick, but there is enough for me to be on it. Pick: Cincinnati.

Saturday night update: Wow, are the Bengals ever a bad team. Marvin Lewis needs to not only be fired but also arrested for criminally wasting so much offensive talent. Their offense was terrible, and their defense was as bad as expected – they made first time starter Shaun Hill look like Tom Brady. What a disgusting display by a disgusting team.

Sunday night update: Let’s just say that Sunday didn’t go any better than Saturday and leave it at that.

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Oakland (-11) at Green Bay – I can’t believe I am actually going to take the Raiders, but it’s true. I think that 11 points is too many here. The Raiders have won two in a row, and they are running the ball very well. Until he proves me wrong I can’t believe that Favre is 100% healthy after his injury last week. I think that the Packers will win, but this is too many points. Pick: Oakland.

Tampa Bay (-3) at Houston – The Texans are not in a good place right now. They have lost two in a row, and they haven’t looked good doing it. Tampa Bay has had every reason to struggle this year, but they keep finding ways to win. Jeff Garcia may be back in action this week, and even if he isn’t Tampa Bay finds ways to get by. They are hungry and eager to put their division out of the grasp of others, and that should be enough to cover here. Pick: Tampa Bay.

Minnesota (-8.5) at San Francisco - I have a soft spot for San Francisco, but they are in a terrible spot here. Minnesota is incredible on the ground, and they have more confidence offensively than almost any team in the league right now. The Niners are weak on defense, and essentially incompetent against the run. Minnesota’s sprint to the playoffs continues here in a big way. Pick: Minnesota.

Cleveland (-3) at New York Jets – Cleveland has to be upset, because Kellen Winslow was the victim of a bad call that cost them the game last week. They are a proud team, and they are still very much in the playoff hunt. They need a win here, and I expect them to come out very hungry and feast on a vulnerable New York team. Pick: Cleveland.

San Diego (pick) at Tennessee – I have no faith in the Titans. San Diego is suddenly playing with confidence and passion that was lacking early. The combination of those two factors make the Chargers very attractive at this price. Pick: San Diego.

UPDATE: Nice wins by Minnesota, Cleveland and San Diego overcame incompetent performances by Tampa Bay and Oakland to move me to 3-2 on the weekend. I’ll certainly take that.

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New York Giants (-3) at Detroit – I know I said I was done with betting on the Lions, but I just can’t quit them. I don’t trust the Giants at all, and Detroit has been great at home, So the value lies in the Lions and the points. Pick: Detroit.

St. Louis (-3) at San Francisco – The Rams looked pretty good in winning last week, and I like their chances to do it again here. The Niners are in a deep, ugly funk. Pick: St. Louis.

Cleveland (-2.5) at Baltimore – This is an easy game for me to pick. I love teams that play with heart. Cleveland is playing with more than anyone right now, while Baltimore isn’t showing any of the heart that has made me like them for so long. Cleveland is in a good spot here. Pick: Cleveland.

UPDATE: 2-1 on the day. Cleveland and St. Louis didn’t win pretty, but at least they won and covered. Detroit, on the other hand, was a frustrating mess. I guess I should have meant it when I said I was done with them.

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Indianapolis (-6.5) at Carolina – I am concerned by the injury situations of both Marvin Harrison and Tony Ugoh. Despite that, Indy’s defense is healthy, and that makes the Panthers an automatic bet-against in my book thanks to the Vinny Testaverde factor. You can not get ready for a team like in as little time as Vinny has had, and I don’t care how Disney-like his story has been. Pick: Indy.

New York Giants (-9.5) vs. Miami in London - Given the recent play of both teams this spread seems about accurate. Add in the season ending injuries to Ronnie Brown and Renaldo Hill, and the absence of Zach Thomas, and I am more than happy to do the oftentimes unthinkable – put my faith in Eli manning. Pick: Giants.

Oakland (+6.5) at Tennessee – I was basing my pick on this game on one thing – reports out of Titans camp on the status of Vince Young. He’s apparently fine. The Raiders defense has been fading in recent weeks, and Young’s mobility and creativity ids the kind of thing that can cause a defense like that to have a very bad day. Pick: Tennessee.

Philadelphia (-1) at Minnesota – I like to take a first stab at handicapping games before I see the spread. When I looked at this one I thought that the Eagles would win a close game because Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass and because the Minnesota quarterbacking situation is cloudy at this point. This spread fit well with my theory. Pick: Philadelphia.

Buffalo (+3) at New York Jets – When you get to take the best team and the points then it’s a no-brainer. Buffalo is one crazy finish against Dallas away from being unbeaten in three. The Jest haven’t won since they saw the even more pathetic Dolphins. The Bills are playing with heart. That makes one team. Pick: Buffalo.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay’s defense will be able to give Quinn Gray fits, and Jeff Garcia will be as surgically precise as he has been all year against a Jaguars defense that had a pretty rough week last week. Pick: Tampa Bay.

New Orleans (-1) at San Francisco – I desperately want to like the 49ers, but they are making that a very tough thing to do this year. The Saints’ offense is finally showing signs of life, and the Niners have made competent offenses look very good in recent weeks. Pick: New Orleans.

Washington (+17) at New England – The Pats are better than the Redskins. Probably way better. 17 points against a decent team is way, way too many, though. I’ll take a shot with Washington. Pick: Redskins.

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