I like Saturday’s games way more than I like Sunday’s. That doesn’t mean that I am going to be original, though – it’s going to be all about the chalk today. I don’t love being in line with the public, but I can’t justify going another way here.

Washington (+3.5) at Seattle – The Redskins have been playing with emotion and determination. The Seahawks really haven’t. Washington matches up well on the run against the Seattle front line, and should be able to score. If Seattle wins they should win a close game, and my guess is that they won’t even manage that. Pick: Washington.

Jacksonville (-2.5) at Pittsburgh – Jacksonville is the total media darling, but in this case they deserve it. Pittsburgh has looked lackluster recently. They have lost three of four. Jacksonville beat them less than a month ago, and that was before the Steelers got hit badly by injuries. The Jags will be able to run all day, and they will score at a pace that I am not sure Pittsburgh can match in their current state. This is my favorite game of the weekend. Pick: Jacksonville.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

The Poinsettia Bowl is the most exciting game tonight in my mind, but then I’m a bowl junkie. While tonight’s NFL game isn’t as exciting, it is an interesting puzzle:

Pittsburgh (-7.5) at St. Louis – Normally, I would love to find a way to pick against the Steelers. They are playing poorly in recent weeks and I haven’t had a lot of faith in them all year. The problem, of course, is that they are playing the Rams. St. Louis has found all sorts of ways to be pitiful, their quarterbacking situation is one big uncertainty, and they don’t have a whole lot to play for. I look for Pittsburgh to seek redemption after two big losses. Pick: Pittsburgh.

UPDATE: It was close for longer than I thought it might be, and the Rams did some things well, but in the end they were just too flawed and the Steelers were too strong.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

What an interesting start to the betting on Sunday’s game between the Patriots and the Steelers. All year the Pats have been the ultimate public team and money has been pouring in on them at ridiculous rates. They covered any number early in the season, but the last couple of weeks they haven’t even come close. Not only that, but they have looked vulnerable two weeks in a row in nationally televised games and they are now playing the best opponent they have played since Dallas. Suddenly, no one wants to bet on the Pats. Two thirds of the early action is on the Steelers. The line opened at 14.5 after the game last night, but was quickly adjusted down to 13 points. Actions is still heavy on the Steelers, so it will be very interesting to see how far the books are willing to drop a Patriots line. Watching it over the week will give us a pretty good indicator of how much faith the oddsmakers have in New England. The books have been making a pile of money on New England the last couple of weeks, and they know that if they drop it far enough then the fickle public will fall in love with New England again. I’m not yet sure how I will deal with it.

UPDATE: It has already plummeted  down to 10.5 as of late Tuesday afternoon and looks like it may not stop there. Is it possible that we may, for once, actually see value on the Patriots this year?

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet