Harvard (+7) at Columbia - I like Columbia here for several reasons:

1. They beat Harvard by nine on the road two weeks ago.
2. They are an impressive 10-4 ATS, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight.
3. John Baumann, the Columbia forward who is the only real scoring threat on either team, is in fine form recently and he will be able to feast on the truly pathetic Harvard D.
4. I hate Tommy Amaker, blame him for ruining my beloved Michigan basketball program, and want to see him suffer as much as possible.
5. Neither team has anything left to play for, so the home crowd (such as it will be) will make a big difference.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

Davidson (-3) at Winthrop – Off the top I’ll say that I like Davidson here. The Wildcats are playing well, especially on the road, and they match up well. Winthrop is at the top of the Big South, but that doesn’t mean too much. Of course, Davidson has faced only marginally better competition in the Southern conference. It comes down, then, to three things;

1) Non-conference competition – Winthrop has played a few decent teams, and they have a win over Miami that looks better after the Hurricanes stunned Duke. They haven’t played nearly the level of competition that Davidson has, though. The non-conference schedule holds more importance in my mind when the teams don’t play regularly, and these two programs have never met.

2) Stephen Curry – He’s one of the best players in the country, and the Davidson guard could be the difference here. Winthrop can’t score at all, but Davidson’s defense is only average, so the Wildcats won’t be able to exploit that edge as much as they could. Winthrop plays solid defense, but they haven’t seen an offense as strong as Davidson’s, or a player as good as Curry. I’m not confident that Winthrop is ready for the step up in class.

3) ATS records – It’s not Winthrop’s fault that they have only played three games with a spread, but it makes it difficult to know how they perform when bettors’ money is on the line. It also means that it is harder for the books to set an accurate line. On the other hand, Davidson, at 15-9 ATS, is a proven performer that has been decently consistent for bettors.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

Xavier (+2.5) at Rhode Island - Xavier has struggled a bit lately, but they have still won seven in a row even if the margin hasn’t been as big as it could be. This is a battle for A-10 supremacy, and I truly believe that Xavier is the better squad. That makes them attractive here.

Austin Peay (+1) at Tennessee State – Austin Peay is the better team by a wide margin, and they are playing reasonably well. The edge isn’t huge here, but it is big enough to make it worth a play.

Texas A&M (+5) at Texas – Texas is playing as well as anyway and they are at home. Texas A&M is great when they are on their game, but they are wildly inconsistent. The value is on the Longhorns.

Gonzaga (-6.5) at San Diego - The Bulldogs aren’t getting a lot of press this year, but they are still headed to the tourney, and they have made a habit of covering huge spreads lately. I expect them to cover a much more modest one here as they ramp their game up in anticipation of the postseason.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

Louisville (-5.5) at Providence -  I love how Louisville is laying, I think that they match up well here, and I think that Rick Pitino gets a little more fired up than usual(which is saying something) when he goes back to Providence. The Cardinals seem attractive.

Drake (-1.5) at Northern Iowa – Drake had a long winning streak snapped last time out. If they are going to bounce back then this is a great spot for them to do it. The line seems soft. I’d take Drake.

Creighton (+2) at Bradley – I have been very disappointed by Bradley this year. Creighton has played reasonably well, and they know they need to step their game up a bit to make the tournament. This seems like a good place for them to start.

Stanford (+1.5) at Arizona - This is a tough one because I like both teams. Stanford is a bit deeper, though, and they are coming off a tough loss. They should be able to bounce back and win a game that should be fascinating.

Purdue (-8) at Northwestern – Purdue is as hot as any team in the country. Northwestern really, really isn’t. Northwestern can’t compete on any level here, and I think that this one could get ugly.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

1. I can’t get over the fact that Bill Belichick and company have seen Eli Manning once already, so they know what to expect from him. If you listen to the media talk, Manning has suddenly surpassed his brother in excellence. I don’t buy that at all. I think he is a suspect quarterback, and I think that the Patriots have the ability to plan and scheme better than anyone, so they will be able to shut him down.

2. I think that the running game is going to be more of a wash than it is initially thought. The Giants have the better numbers, but the Patriots have been much improved in recent weeks. The Giants were not hugely effective on the ground last time the teams met, and I don’t expect much more here. Ultimately, they have to rely on two inexperienced backs playing on a huge stage against season defensive veterans for New England. The mistakes won’t be made by the Patriots. The difference is that the Giants need a strong running game to succeed, while the Patriots have shown repeatedly that they can win without one.

3. Despite what Plaxico Burress claims, the passing game is a total mismatch. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the league, and he has a ridiculous number of weapons. The Patriots can ruthlessly pick apart teams when they want to, and they will certainly want to here.

4. Experience matters, and the Patriots have all of it. Their players will be more prepared for the game, they are better coached, and they have played under much more pressure all year. Despite what people claim, the Giants haven’t proven that they can come through when it truly matters, and they have way more vulnerability than the Patriots do.

5. I think that the Patriots feel like they have been disrespected for a while now. They aren’t going to like that. They have been an ATS disaster for a couple of months, but they haven’t had much to play for and have gotten a bit complacent. They won’t be this week. I look for them to come out and try to crush the soul out of the Giants like they did against some of the other legitimate contenders they faced during the season – Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Diego, Cincinnati.

6. The public likes the Giants. Two thirds of bets placed have been on the underdog, yet the line hasn’t moved significantly since the first move down from 14. That strikes me as a bit odd, and it would make me uncomfortable to be on the same side as so much dumb money.

7. The Patriots are much, much better. They have a huge advantage at quarterback, they have a better offensive line, they have much better receivers, their running backs are comparable, they have a better secondary, and their coaching staff is far superior. On top of all that, they have not lost this year, and they have toyed with top teams when they have chosen to. I was going to bet that the Giants could keep it close, but ultimately I couldn’t justify saying that a decidedly inferior team was only going to lose by a bit.

There it is then. I will take the Giants and the points. It is down to 11.5 in some places now, but the most attractive price in my mind is -12 -104 at 5Dimes.

Whether you are with me or against me, enjoy the game – drink too much, eat too much, and don’t lose too much. I’ll be back after the game with my 12 observations on what happened.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

New York Giants (+7) at Green Bay – I’ve burned money two weekends in a row by betting against the Giants. Why stop now? I don’t believe in this team despite their recent playoff run, and I am not confident that their pass rush will be able to shut down an opposing quarterback three weeks in a row. With the spread where it is I wouldn’t at all be surprised to have my money refunded for a push, but I still think that the value lies with the better team playing at home. Pick: Green Bay.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

San Diego (+14.5) at New England – I said it earlier in the week, and I am going to stick by it – I’m taking the Chargers. They are probably outclassed, and injuries will hurt, but two touchdowns is  a pretty big cushion, and I am more confident in their ability to keep it close than I am in the Pats to run away with it. I don’t see how New England won’t win, but San Diego is the choice here. Pick: San Diego.

Incidentally, as I suspected on Friday, the public seems to be jumping onto the Pats’ bandwagon with more authority. Their support has jumped from 48 percent to 54 in just over a day.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

The concern, of course, is the health of the Chargers. This is up in the air, but the only guy I am really concerned about in terms of potentially not playing is Philip Rivers, and Billy Volek isn’t a huge step back. This line reflects overcompensation for those injuries by the public in my mind.

I’ll make my bet on San Diego now, and if I get nervous between now and game time I can always reverse it by making a bet on New England.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

San Diego (+10) at Indianapolis – The Chargers are cocky, they are playing as well as they have all year, there is a good chance the Antonio Gates will be back, and they already beat Indy once this year. It seems to me like there is a decent chance that San Diego can stay within 10. The Colts should win, but it won’t be easy and I’ll happily take the points. Pick: San Diego.

New York Giants (+7.5) at Dallas – My hatred of the Giants cost me money last weekend, but not enough that I’m not going to bet against them again. Dallas hasn’t had much trouble with the Giants in recent history, and I don’t think that they will again here. I really don’t give a damn whether Jessica Simpson shows up at the game or not, and I have no doubts about Romo’s preparation or ability to handle the Giants. New York has had two big games in a row to get up for and I think they could be in for a step back against a rested, superior team. Pick: Dallas.

UPDATE: I’ll take 3-1 this weekend over the 1-3 of last weekend any time. It certainly didn’t happen how I expected, though. Saturday was pretty true to form, but I didn’t see Indy lying down when the pressure got intense, and I really don’t see Dallas failing to show up at home.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

I had a pretty good feeling about the games last Saturday, and I got them both wrong. Maybe it’s a good thing, then, that I don’t feel great about either of today’s games.

Seattle (+8) at Green Bay – I have no doubt that Green Bay is the better team and the pick. I’m just not particularly thrilled about having to give up eight points to take them. I don’t like the Seahawks at all, but last week is a clear sign that I underestimate them. Green Bay has more talent, more emotion, and they are at home, so I have to just bite the bullet and give the points. Hasselbeck’s bruised thigh makes me feel a bit better about having to do it. Pick: Green Bay.

Jacksonville (+15) at New England – I wasn’t at all happy about making a pick, but I feel a bit better now that I was able to find -15 at 5Dimes. The best bet there is on this game, I guess, is to take Jacksonville and hope that they can stay within two touchdowns. If they play at their best then I don’t see why that can’t happen. The problem is that I also don’t struggle to much to see the Pats win it by 30. reagrdless, the closest thing to value is the Jags. Pick: Jacksonville.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet