Ultra Sports Bet » philadelphia

Why not?

Sun, 25 Nov 2007 22:04:37 +0000

It is totally and utterly ridiculous that there is a 24 point spread in the NFL. Even more ridiculous, I can’t come up with a good reason to think that it is anything other than a legitimate spread. Don’t get me wrong – it’s a number that has been very inflated by the public support. I just don’t see how the Eagles can be competitive, so I don’t how how you could justify backing them. I normally would stay away from something this huge and silly, but I’ve had a winning weekend in the NFL already, and a loss here wouldn’t change that, and I can’t resist playing the second biggest spread in regular season history. Pick: New England.

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Sunday, Sunday, Sunday

Sat, 10 Nov 2007 06:53:21 +0000

There may be more, but as of Friday night these are the NFL games I will be paying speciall attention to:

Philadelphia (+2.5) at Washington – Neither of these teams are playing particularly well right now. The difference, I think, is that Washington has the chance to rebound and make the playoffs, while this has the stench of a lost season for Philadelphia. Washington has played better at home than on the road, and they are back in front of their faithful after a couple of weeks away. Given the reasonable spread, the value is on the Redskins. Pick: Washington.

Dallas (-1.5) at N.Y. Giants – This is being painted as a battle for the top of the NFC, but I’m not buying it. New York is getting way too much credit for it’s six game winning streak. The last four wins have been against a true pack of losers – Miami, San Francisco, Atlanta, and the Jets. They looked pathetic against Miami, and I am not certain that you could call their offense trustworthy or particularly legitimate. This game could be a shootout, and I don’t like the Giants’ chances of keeping up. Tony Romo isn’t going to be as bothered by the pass rush as other quarterbacks with less swagger have. Pick: Dallas.

Detroit (+1.5) at Arizona – Try as I might, I can’t come up with a particularly good reason not to take a shot on Detroit here. This line really caught me off guard. I’m going to quit trying to over think it and just put my money down. Pick: Detroit.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at San Diego – I think that there is a ton of value in Indianapolis. They are going to be pissed off after their loss last weekend, and they will take it out on the Chargers. San Diego looked dismal last week, and they have only beaten bad teams this year. Indy has some injury issues, but I don’t think they are serious enough to overcome the advantage that Indy has in how they have been playing. Pick: Indianapolis.

Buffalo (-2.5) at Miami - I love how Buffalo has played the last three games. I don’t love anything about Miami. They are ravaged by injuries, they have nothing to play for, and they see to be self-destructing under the watch of a terrible coaching staff. Buffalo is playing like they believe in what they are doing, and I am a sucker for a plucky upstart. That makes the Bills the pick. Pick: Buffalo.

UPDATE: A very frustrating Sunday. Buffalo and Dallas did just what I hoped, but nothing else went right. Washington collapsed badly at the end, Detroit just forgot to show up, and Indy lost one of the most disgustingly bad football games in recent memory. 2-3 and the first losing weekend in the NFL in a long time.

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Four more for Sunday

Sun, 04 Nov 2007 03:18:41 +0000

You would never guessed it based on the media, but there is actually more than one NFL game being played this weekend. Here are the games involving merely mortal teams that I will be paying special attention to. I’ll be paying special attention to these ones because they are the ones I will actually be playing. The Pats game is just for fun – as a bet there is no value:

Washington (-3.5) at New York Jets – Washington was embarrassed by New England last week. I suspect that their pride will lead them to take out their frustrations on a far inferior New York team. The last time they had a bad loss, to the Giants, they came back the next week and crushed Detroit. Kellen Clemens is starting, and Washington will do everything they can to make his life miserable. Pick: Washington.

Seattle (pick) at Cleveland – When the game is a pick you just put your money on the better team. That is, unbelievably, Cleveland. Their offense has really found its stride, and they are playing like they finally believe in themselves – something they haven’t done since Bernie Kosar retired. Seattle is coming off a bye, but they have been decidedly lackluster all year, and I am not expecting to be impressed. Pick: Cleveland.

Jacksonville (+3) at New Orleans – The Jags have struggled defensively the last few weeks. New Orleans is experiencing an offensive renaissance. The game could become a shootout. If it does then I would bet on New Orleans every time, because I don’t like Quinn Gray’s chances of keeping up. Pick: New Orleans.

Dallas (-3) at Philadelphia – I’ve been taking the public teams all the way along today, so I might as well stick with it. At this spread I think Dallas is a steal. They have had a bye week to prepare for an inferior team. They have an offense that Philly won’t be able to keep up with. They did a decent job of containing Minnesota’s potent run game and should be able to do the same for Philadelphia. If Dallas is near their best then I don’t see how the Eagles compete. Pick: Dallas.

UPDATE: Sooo close. 3-1 on the games today, and a lousy half a point in the Washington game away from 4-0 and a perfect weekend. I think that the Dallas line was one of the softest ones of the season.

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Week 8 NFL picks (just 364 more days to the Breeders’ Cup)

Sun, 28 Oct 2007 15:34:34 +0000

I’m playing an abnormally high number of NFL games this week (8) because I am feeling post-Breeders’ Cup withdrawal, so the action will help me shake the blues.

Indianapolis (-6.5) at Carolina – I am concerned by the injury situations of both Marvin Harrison and Tony Ugoh. Despite that, Indy’s defense is healthy, and that makes the Panthers an automatic bet-against in my book thanks to the Vinny Testaverde factor. You can not get ready for a team like in as little time as Vinny has had, and I don’t care how Disney-like his story has been. Pick: Indy.

New York Giants (-9.5) vs. Miami in London - Given the recent play of both teams this spread seems about accurate. Add in the season ending injuries to Ronnie Brown and Renaldo Hill, and the absence of Zach Thomas, and I am more than happy to do the oftentimes unthinkable – put my faith in Eli manning. Pick: Giants.

Oakland (+6.5) at Tennessee – I was basing my pick on this game on one thing – reports out of Titans camp on the status of Vince Young. He’s apparently fine. The Raiders defense has been fading in recent weeks, and Young’s mobility and creativity ids the kind of thing that can cause a defense like that to have a very bad day. Pick: Tennessee.

Philadelphia (-1) at Minnesota – I like to take a first stab at handicapping games before I see the spread. When I looked at this one I thought that the Eagles would win a close game because Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass and because the Minnesota quarterbacking situation is cloudy at this point. This spread fit well with my theory. Pick: Philadelphia.

Buffalo (+3) at New York Jets – When you get to take the best team and the points then it’s a no-brainer. Buffalo is one crazy finish against Dallas away from being unbeaten in three. The Jest haven’t won since they saw the even more pathetic Dolphins. The Bills are playing with heart. That makes one team. Pick: Buffalo.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay’s defense will be able to give Quinn Gray fits, and Jeff Garcia will be as surgically precise as he has been all year against a Jaguars defense that had a pretty rough week last week. Pick: Tampa Bay.

New Orleans (-1) at San Francisco – I desperately want to like the 49ers, but they are making that a very tough thing to do this year. The Saints’ offense is finally showing signs of life, and the Niners have made competent offenses look very good in recent weeks. Pick: New Orleans.

Washington (+17) at New England – The Pats are better than the Redskins. Probably way better. 17 points against a decent team is way, way too many, though. I’ll take a shot with Washington. Pick: Redskins.

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