Ultra Sports Bet

Five games strike my fancy today. The New England game is not one of them, but I will obviously be watching with interest. My feeling is that this is the game where the Pats get back into spread covering form. I don’t particularly believe in the Steelers, especially on the road. I don’t have enough faith in that particular conviction to bet on it, though. Here are the five:
Oakland (-11) at Green Bay – I can’t believe I am actually going to take the Raiders, but it’s true. I think that 11 points is too many here. The Raiders …read more

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Normally in this spot I would make a write up and a pick for the Thursday night NFL game between Chicago (+3) and Washington. I absolutely refuse to do it. This is a truly and utterly awful game, and I am not going to watch it because I don’t want the NFL to think I approve. I will come back to the NFL when they start showing better games (like Sunday – this isn’t a long strike), but I refuse to be part of such terrible football. In a pinch I guess I would lean towards Washington, but none of …read more

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New England (-18.5) at Baltimore – I am on Baltimore tonight. There are a couple of emotional based reasons, including the impact of the pride of a very potentially solid defense for Baltimore. My biggest reason to be on Baltimore, though, is the line movement. More than two thirds of the bets made have been on the Pats. Despite that, though, the line has fallen from the opening level of 20.5 down two and a half points to 18 in some places. That’s contrary to expectations, and can be a good indicator that the books don’t fear action on the …read more

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If you had told me at the beginning of the year that the biggest game of the year in the NFC would be Green Bay and Dallas I would have gently suggested that you find a way to get off the drugs. Regardless, that’s what it is, and it shapes up to be a great game. For once, I am in a television advantage in Canada – for some reason I get the NFL Network when millions down south don’t, and even if I didn’t it’s on regular cable here, too. That doesn’t make up for our inability to get …read more

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It is totally and utterly ridiculous that there is a 24 point spread in the NFL. Even more ridiculous, I can’t come up with a good reason to think that it is anything other than a legitimate spread. Don’t get me wrong – it’s a number that has been very inflated by the public support. I just don’t see how the Eagles can be competitive, so I don’t how how you could justify backing them. I normally would stay away from something this huge and silly, but I’ve had a winning weekend in the NFL already, and a loss here …read more

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It’s not a very interesting weekend to me on the football front. The Thursday games were boring, but they represented most of the weekend’s value in my mind. Only one NFL game captures my interest. Don’t worry, though – I have another game for you to look at, too.
Houston (+3) at Cleveland – Cleveland has won four in a row at home. Houston has won two straight, but I’m not convinced that they are for real. They’ve matched up situationally well the last two games, and I am not confident that they will again here. This game opened with a …read more

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Happy Thanksgiving to all you Americans out there. I’m a Canadian, so it’s not my Thanksgiving, but I work mostly for Americans, I will be lying on the couch watching football all day like most Americans, and I really, really love turkey, so there will be a bird in the oven at my house in the spirit of cross-border cooperation. It’s the least I can do.
The fun of watching the game will obviously be enhanced by having betting interests in them. I normally wouldn’t play all three of the NFL games, but then I wouldn’t normally spend a Thursday lying …read more

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There are more NFL games this weekend than we have seen since before the bye weeks started, yet there are only three that strike my fancy. I am intrigued by Buffalo and their mountain of points at home, but I can’t convince myself to pull the trigger on it.
New York Giants (-3) at Detroit – I know I said I was done with betting on the Lions, but I just can’t quit them. I don’t trust the Giants at all, and Detroit has been great at home, So the value lies in the Lions and the points. Pick: Detroit.
St. …read more

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There may be more, but as of Friday night these are the NFL games I will be paying speciall attention to:

Philadelphia (+2.5) at Washington – Neither of these teams are playing particularly well right now. The difference, I think, is that Washington has the chance to rebound and make the playoffs, while this has the stench of a lost season for Philadelphia. Washington has played better at home than on the road, and they are back in front of their faithful after a couple of weeks away. Given the reasonable spread, the value is on the Redskins. Pick: Washington.

Dallas (-1.5) …read more

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Baltimore (+10) at Pittsburgh – Sometimes the best handicapping decision you can make is to not play a game. I think that this is such a case. I like Pittsburgh, and I am reasonably confident that they will win, but there is a big difference between winning and winning by 10. Baltimore is just 4-3, but has only lost by more than ten points once. Pittsburgh is 5-2, and they have beaten up on teams this year, but look at their opponents that they have run the score up on – Cleveland, Buffalo, San Francisco, Seattle, Cincinnati. Those are all …read more

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