Ultra Sports Bet

New York Giants (+7) at Green Bay – I’ve burned money two weekends in a row by betting against the Giants. Why stop now? I don’t believe in this team despite their recent playoff run, and I am not confident that their pass rush will be able to shut down an opposing quarterback three weeks in a row. With the spread where it is I wouldn’t at all be surprised to have my money refunded for a push, but I still think that the value lies with the better team playing at home. Pick: Green Bay.

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San Diego (+14.5) at New England – I said it earlier in the week, and I am going to stick by it – I’m taking the Chargers. They are probably outclassed, and injuries will hurt, but two touchdowns is  a pretty big cushion, and I am more confident in their ability to keep it close than I am in the Pats to run away with it. I don’t see how New England won’t win, but San Diego is the choice here. Pick: San Diego.
Incidentally, as I suspected on Friday, the public seems to be jumping onto the Pats’ bandwagon with …read more

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Let me say this from the start – the Patriots are going to win the AFC Championship. They are then going to win the Super Bowl. I have very few doubts about that. That being said, I can’t help but jump on the Chargers right now. The spread is available in places at 14.5, and I want to take it now because I am unsure that it will continue to be available at better than two touchdowns for long. I think that betting that the Chargers can stay within two touchdowns of the future champs is the closest thing to …read more

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San Diego (+10) at Indianapolis – The Chargers are cocky, they are playing as well as they have all year, there is a good chance the Antonio Gates will be back, and they already beat Indy once this year. It seems to me like there is a decent chance that San Diego can stay within 10. The Colts should win, but it won’t be easy and I’ll happily take the points. Pick: San Diego.

New York Giants (+7.5) at Dallas – My hatred of the Giants cost me money last weekend, but not enough that I’m not going to bet …read more

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I had a pretty good feeling about the games last Saturday, and I got them both wrong. Maybe it’s a good thing, then, that I don’t feel great about either of today’s games.

Seattle (+8) at Green Bay – I have no doubt that Green Bay is the better team and the pick. I’m just not particularly thrilled about having to give up eight points to take them. I don’t like the Seahawks at all, but last week is a clear sign that I underestimate them. Green Bay has more talent, more emotion, and they are at home, so I have …read more

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Unlike Saturday, these games do absolutely nothing to excite me. That doesn’t mean I won’t pick them, though. I am a wild man.
New York Giants (+2.5) at Tampa Bay – I have gone back and forth on this one, but in the end I just have to go with the Bucs. I don’t like where the Giants are mentally after losing to the Pats despite laying it all out, and I don’t like their injury status. I am concerned about the Giants pass rush, but not as concerned as the media seems to be. In the end, I just …read more

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I like Saturday’s games way more than I like Sunday’s. That doesn’t mean that I am going to be original, though – it’s going to be all about the chalk today. I don’t love being in line with the public, but I can’t justify going another way here.
Washington (+3.5) at Seattle – The Redskins have been playing with emotion and determination. The Seahawks really haven’t. Washington matches up well on the run against the Seattle front line, and should be able to score. If Seattle wins they should win a close game, and my guess is that they won’t even …read more

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The Poinsettia Bowl is the most exciting game tonight in my mind, but then I’m a bowl junkie. While tonight’s NFL game isn’t as exciting, it is an interesting puzzle:
Pittsburgh (-7.5) at St. Louis – Normally, I would love to find a way to pick against the Steelers. They are playing poorly in recent weeks and I haven’t had a lot of faith in them all year. The problem, of course, is that they are playing the Rams. St. Louis has found all sorts of ways to be pitiful, their quarterbacking situation is one big uncertainty, and they don’t …read more

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As I said on Friday, I am not particularly thrilled with the NFL these days. Finding value this week was a mind-numbing challenge. There are so many games that are automatic passes, and a couple of the interesting games have lines that are pretty tight. I only found three games this week that I will be taking a piece of. They are the best of the week, but in all of them there is still a bit of a reason to be nervous about the team I am backing. It’s also a bit odd that I am on three road …read more

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Dear NFL,
I think it’s time we see other people. We have had a long relationship, and we have had lots of good times, but I just don’t love you like I used to. Oh yeah, and it’s not me, it’s you.
When we first got together you seemed so fresh and exciting. I got excited each week about what was coming, and I was never disappointed. You provided what I needed. You completed me. Recently, though, I can’t help but notice that you are letting yourself go. Too many of your teams don’t care any more – it’s like they are …read more

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