1. What the hell was that? I didn’t see that coming, and if you say you did then you are probably lying.

2. I’m not sure Brady has ever been hit like that. Judging by how he reacted to it, I would guess that he hasn’t. The most shocking part wasn’t the number of times he had to pick himself up, it was the number of pretty awful passes he threw as a result of the constant pressure.

3. That non-sack of Manning that essentially sealed the game was one of the sorriest things I have ever seen. There is no excuse for that from the Raiders, never mind an undefeated Super Bowl favorite.

4. Nice catch, David Tyree. Enjoy your 15 seconds.

5. I still hate Eli. I don’t see that changing.

6. How is it that the Patriots didn’t have a way figured out to contain the pass rush when they had two weeks to prepare? That’s the biggest story of the game in my mind. I was watching the game with a couple of people who aren’t even close to football fans, yet by about the second snap they had figured out that the Giants were going to rush Brady every time he touched the ball. It wasn’t a secret.

7. I was interested to see how quickly the Pats gave up on the run. It was working well in the playoffs, but it didn’t start well in the big game, and they moved away from it. As a result, especially with the Kevin Faulk hamstring tweak, the play seemed to be a pass to Welker every time out. It’s not hard to look like a defensive genius when you just have to defend the same play every time out.

8. I keep hearing about how this was one of the all-time great Super Bowls. I’m not buying it. The first half was defensively impressive, but the offenses did little to help themselves out. The third quarter was sloppy. The fourth quarter was entertaining, and the last scoring drives by both teams were impressive, but for me that payoff at the end doesn’t outweigh the disappointment and boredom of early on. As good as the Giants were defensively, a game can’t be great when the teams don’t play like they can, and the Pats were a shadow of themselves. That was partly because of the Giants, but only partly.

9. The Patriots’ decision on what to do with Randy Moss just got much harder.

10. It seems poetic that the biggest total in Super Bowl history resulted in the biggest margin that two teams have gone under the total in Super Bowl history. The teams went under by 24 points.

11. That’s four unders in a row after the games had gone over in six of eight. Trend watchers will have to adjust expectations.

12. Man, do I hate the Mannings.

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2. Momentum. I’m not sure that I believe in momentum in football, but if it exists then the Giants have it. They are playing truly possessed football of late – their run through the playoffs has been nothing short of remarkable.

3. Manning is limiting mistakes. The Giants get into trouble when Eli Manning tries to do too much. He is an above average quarterback, but not by a wide margin. In the playoffs he has done what he knows he can do, and that has meant accuracy, fewer turnovers and far more effective overall play. If he keeps that up he can keep this game competitive.

4. The pass rush. The Giants had no luck getting to Brady last time, but the quarterback isn’t likely to be at his full mobillity. If the pass rush can get to him and bother him then they can neutralize the mid and deep passing games that are so potent. If the Giants can’t do it then no one can.

5. Ahmad Bradshaw. A rookie kick returner rarely factors in significantly, but Bradshaw has become much more than that. When he showed late in the year that he was a legitimate running back he created a real matchup problem. He is small and lightning fast. Brandon Jacobs is a bulldozer. Those two trading off carries will help keep the Pats defense off balance, and could leaad to the team to success on the ground.

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New York Giants (+7) at Green Bay – I’ve burned money two weekends in a row by betting against the Giants. Why stop now? I don’t believe in this team despite their recent playoff run, and I am not confident that their pass rush will be able to shut down an opposing quarterback three weeks in a row. With the spread where it is I wouldn’t at all be surprised to have my money refunded for a push, but I still think that the value lies with the better team playing at home. Pick: Green Bay.

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San Diego (+10) at Indianapolis – The Chargers are cocky, they are playing as well as they have all year, there is a good chance the Antonio Gates will be back, and they already beat Indy once this year. It seems to me like there is a decent chance that San Diego can stay within 10. The Colts should win, but it won’t be easy and I’ll happily take the points. Pick: San Diego.

New York Giants (+7.5) at Dallas – My hatred of the Giants cost me money last weekend, but not enough that I’m not going to bet against them again. Dallas hasn’t had much trouble with the Giants in recent history, and I don’t think that they will again here. I really don’t give a damn whether Jessica Simpson shows up at the game or not, and I have no doubts about Romo’s preparation or ability to handle the Giants. New York has had two big games in a row to get up for and I think they could be in for a step back against a rested, superior team. Pick: Dallas.

UPDATE: I’ll take 3-1 this weekend over the 1-3 of last weekend any time. It certainly didn’t happen how I expected, though. Saturday was pretty true to form, but I didn’t see Indy lying down when the pressure got intense, and I really don’t see Dallas failing to show up at home.

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Detroit (+1.5) at Arizona – Try as I might, I can’t come up with a particularly good reason not to take a shot on Detroit here. This line really caught me off guard. I’m going to quit trying to over think it and just put my money down. Pick: Detroit.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at San Diego – I think that there is a ton of value in Indianapolis. They are going to be pissed off after their loss last weekend, and they will take it out on the Chargers. San Diego looked dismal last week, and they have only beaten bad teams this year. Indy has some injury issues, but I don’t think they are serious enough to overcome the advantage that Indy has in how they have been playing. Pick: Indianapolis.

Buffalo (-2.5) at Miami - I love how Buffalo has played the last three games. I don’t love anything about Miami. They are ravaged by injuries, they have nothing to play for, and they see to be self-destructing under the watch of a terrible coaching staff. Buffalo is playing like they believe in what they are doing, and I am a sucker for a plucky upstart. That makes the Bills the pick. Pick: Buffalo.

UPDATE: A very frustrating Sunday. Buffalo and Dallas did just what I hoped, but nothing else went right. Washington collapsed badly at the end, Detroit just forgot to show up, and Indy lost one of the most disgustingly bad football games in recent memory. 2-3 and the first losing weekend in the NFL in a long time.

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Giants (-4.5) at Atlanta – This is a particularly interesting game to evaluate because it seems a bit too good to be true. The Giants looked rough early last week against the Jets, but they came back nicely to deliver their third straight solid win. Atlanta looked terrible last week in a loss to Tennessee which came a week after a win against Houston that gave team observers a bit of hope. The veterans on the team are speaking out against the new coach, and the offensive line is full of injuries, forcing two youngsters to start against the fierce New York pass rush. Quarterbacking is clearly an issue for Atlanta – Harrington is wildly inconsistent, but Byron Leftwich looked unprepared in relief last week.

That all looks like it should lead to an easy game to handicap, but then you see that the line only opened at 3.5 and is moving up, but slowly. If I were to pick a line in this game I would have said at least seven. Why is the line so low? The public is jumping all over the Giants, which is a predictable result, so the oddsmakers must have less faith in the Giants than seems obvious. There are a couple of explanations for the fact that the Giants are not more heavily favored – Plaxico Burress, their chief passing threat, is playing on a sore ankle, and the team has struggled to stop kick returns. The kick return, thanks to Jerious Norwood, is the one aspect of the game that Atlanta is actually doing well in.

The signs point to avoiding the Giants because it seems to easy. I’m going to tempt fate here, though, and I’ll see how that turns out. I see the Giants harassing the Fallcons offense every time the ball is snapped, and I see New York continuing on the offensive confidence they built in the second half of the Jets game to punish the inevitable mistakes Atlanta will make. I don’t think that this will be a terrible blowout, but I do think that the Giants will win by more than 4.5. Pick: Giants.

UPDATE: It’s games like this that make sports betting challenging. The Giants were the obvious pick and they got an easy win, but there were more than ample reasons out there for a bettor to talk themselves out of making that bet. I’m just glad I didn’t do that. Atlanta looks terrible. They just can’t drop that any passes in a game. It’s nice to end the football weekend with another win.

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