1. Inevitability – In the dictionary under inevitable it says ‘Patriots win 2008 Super Bowl’. I like sports for the drama, and I see about as much drama in this as in an elementary school production of Cats.

2. Eli Manning – I freaking hate this guy. I live in dread of the thought that I will have to spend the next two weeks listening to how this guy has matured and led this team to the promised land. They’ll miss the fact that he is still only barely above average as a QB, and that the Giants follow a long line of teams that got to the big game only because their QB made fewer mistakes than the other guys. Eli didn’t win those games for his team – he just didn’t lose them.

3. The rest of the Mannings – The royal family of football make me so sick I might choke on my Oreo. The coverage of their every move was mind-numbing enough when three of them had played in the NFL. Now that two of them have made the Super Bowl it will be the most nauseating thing I have been subjected to since we all got to learn Jerome Bettis was from Detroit every three seconds for two weeks before the Super Bowl was played there.

4. Glendale, Arizona – The new home of the Arizona Cardinals is a beautiful stadium, but it is located in the heart of suburban hell. One huge mall full of massive, soulless stores is right beside another, covering miles and miles of desert wasteland. I’m not going to the game and frankly I’m glad. A guy can only handle so many Target stores.

5. Brett Favre isn’t there – Don’t get me wrong – I’m not a big Favre fan or a Green Bay backer. I just know that we are going to be subjected to endless speculation about the playing future of the ageless one, and if he made the Super Bowl the whole thing could have been held off for two more blissful weeks.

6. The coaches – Tom Coughlin is good at his job, and Bill Belichick is a coaching ninja. The problem, though, is that they have the combined personality of a sheet of plywood. They won’t say anything interesting, and they won’t let their players say much, either. This will be two weeks of misdirection and doublespeak.

7. The spread – The Super Bowl is supposed to be the ultimate showdown of the two best teams in the world. The two best teams would not have an opening spread of two touchdowns. Spreads that big are the ones I ignore on principle in the regular season, but now its the only game in town.

8. Deja vu – I’ve seen this game before a month ago and it wasn’t that interesting then. The Giants played well but ultimately showed that they just weren’t good enough. That time they were on their home field. Now they have to travel and play against the most focused team in the history of sports. I don’t see why I should believe that this game is going to be closer or more interesting.

9. Tom Brady as God – Don’t get me wrong, I love Brady as I do every former Michigan player. He is the best quarterback in the league in my books, and with all due respect to Eli’s big brother I don’t think it is particularly close. Despite that, the talk of Brady’s brilliance over the next two weeks will be enough to make me puke. Reporters will be tripping over themselves to find metaphors to describe their man-crushes and there will be no escaping it.

10. No Shockey – Jeremy Shockey is the only guy on either team that could have been relied on to really do something truly stupid in the lead up to the game. With him out of action the chances of a total meltdown are low. Where’s the fun in that?

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

What an interesting start to the betting on Sunday’s game between the Patriots and the Steelers. All year the Pats have been the ultimate public team and money has been pouring in on them at ridiculous rates. They covered any number early in the season, but the last couple of weeks they haven’t even come close. Not only that, but they have looked vulnerable two weeks in a row in nationally televised games and they are now playing the best opponent they have played since Dallas. Suddenly, no one wants to bet on the Pats. Two thirds of the early action is on the Steelers. The line opened at 14.5 after the game last night, but was quickly adjusted down to 13 points. Actions is still heavy on the Steelers, so it will be very interesting to see how far the books are willing to drop a Patriots line. Watching it over the week will give us a pretty good indicator of how much faith the oddsmakers have in New England. The books have been making a pile of money on New England the last couple of weeks, and they know that if they drop it far enough then the fickle public will fall in love with New England again. I’m not yet sure how I will deal with it.

UPDATE: It has already plummeted  down to 10.5 as of late Tuesday afternoon and looks like it may not stop there. Is it possible that we may, for once, actually see value on the Patriots this year?

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

New England (-18.5) at Baltimore – I am on Baltimore tonight. There are a couple of emotional based reasons, including the impact of the pride of a very potentially solid defense for Baltimore. My biggest reason to be on Baltimore, though, is the line movement. More than two thirds of the bets made have been on the Pats. Despite that, though, the line has fallen from the opening level of 20.5 down two and a half points to 18 in some places. That’s contrary to expectations, and can be a good indicator that the books don’t fear action on the Pats. That means that there is value in finding the best price on the birds you can find. At this time that’s +20 at Bodog. At the price of +1150 on the moneyline I will probably throw a couple of bucks on that, too. Miracles can happen, after all. Pick: Baltimore

UPDATE: Soooo close. The cover was very easy, and the game was very close to being, and probably should have been,  a monumental upset. I would have enjoyed winning an 11.5/1 bet, but I am still happy to have been on the right side for the game.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

It is totally and utterly ridiculous that there is a 24 point spread in the NFL. Even more ridiculous, I can’t come up with a good reason to think that it is anything other than a legitimate spread. Don’t get me wrong – it’s a number that has been very inflated by the public support. I just don’t see how the Eagles can be competitive, so I don’t how how you could justify backing them. I normally would stay away from something this huge and silly, but I’ve had a winning weekend in the NFL already, and a loss here wouldn’t change that, and I can’t resist playing the second biggest spread in regular season history. Pick: New England.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

New England (-5) at Indianapolis – Normally I wouldn’t touch this game. Having the defending Super Bowl champs, who are undefeated after seven weeks, as five point underdogs at home is way too bizarre to have anything to do with. Since this game is the only thing that anyone is talking about, though, I figure I had better wade right into it. Despite the odd line, I like New England. I have six reasons:

1. Marvin Harrison, if he plays, isn’t at full health. Manning hasn’t developed a relationship with another receiver that comes close to replacing that.
2. Manning hasn’t been as sharp in recent weeks as he can be. Harrison’s absence is part, but not all, of that. His completion percentage is low at times, and he has looked off somehow.
3. Indy’s defense is good, but they don’t have the depth to contain New England’s three stellar receivers, along with a good tight end and a passable run game.
4. New England is playing with a ferociousness and determination which isn’t an act. They have lost three in a row to Indy, and I am sure that they will be out to avenge those losses.
5. Tom Brady is playing as well as a quarterback can play.
6. I hate Indianapolis.

This should be a heck of a game and I can’t wait to watch it. I have a feeling that, which ever team comes out ahead, it isn’t going to be close. Pick: New England.

UPDATE: The game went close to how I hoped, but just not quite enough. The Colts defensive depth was eventually a problem, and Manning missed his key personnel, but the team held on for longer than I was hoping. We did learn a couple of things – Manning relies heavily on Harrison, and the Pats are really, really, good. Those last nine minutes, especially since they were played in a hostile road environment, were incredible. It was a great game, but there was a good reason I had no interest in betting on it – way too many variables when teams that good face off.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet