Davidson (-3) at Winthrop – Off the top I’ll say that I like Davidson here. The Wildcats are playing well, especially on the road, and they match up well. Winthrop is at the top of the Big South, but that doesn’t mean too much. Of course, Davidson has faced only marginally better competition in the Southern conference. It comes down, then, to three things;

1) Non-conference competition – Winthrop has played a few decent teams, and they have a win over Miami that looks better after the Hurricanes stunned Duke. They haven’t played nearly the level of competition that Davidson has, though. The non-conference schedule holds more importance in my mind when the teams don’t play regularly, and these two programs have never met.

2) Stephen Curry – He’s one of the best players in the country, and the Davidson guard could be the difference here. Winthrop can’t score at all, but Davidson’s defense is only average, so the Wildcats won’t be able to exploit that edge as much as they could. Winthrop plays solid defense, but they haven’t seen an offense as strong as Davidson’s, or a player as good as Curry. I’m not confident that Winthrop is ready for the step up in class.

3) ATS records – It’s not Winthrop’s fault that they have only played three games with a spread, but it makes it difficult to know how they perform when bettors’ money is on the line. It also means that it is harder for the books to set an accurate line. On the other hand, Davidson, at 15-9 ATS, is a proven performer that has been decently consistent for bettors.

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Bargains

I’m not saying that these teams are a lock to win or anything, but I think that their chances are better than their price:

Stanford (35/1) – The Cardinal are easiily the second best team in the Pac-10, and that’s a tough conference. This price doesn’t give them enough respect.

Purdue (100/1) – They swept Wisconsin and they beat Michigan State. This might not be the best year for the Big Ten, but leading that conference should always mean something, and this team is way tougher than this price would suggest.

Texas (35/1) – They couldn’t score worth a darn, yet they beat Kansas by playing defense. That’s a sign of a pretty good team.

Xavier (80/1) – At this price these boys are a very live longshot. They have done what is asked of them, and they have the experience of blowing a game against Ohio State last year to build on.

No Value

North Carolina (6/1) – There is a lot wrong with the way this team is playing, and it goes way beyond Ty Lawson’s injury. they are not as sharp as they should be, and they are underpriced as a result.

Georgetown (12/1) – Louisville had their way with the Hoyas in the second half, and other good teams could, too. This is a huge underlay.

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