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Missouri (-3) vs. Arkansas (Tuesday, Jan. 1, 11:30 a.m. ET) – I would have felt better about Missouri before they lost badly to Arkansas, but I still like them here. I’m a little bit concerned about Missouri’s ability to stop the run, but the Tigers are far more dynamic and explosive than Arkansas and I expect that to win out in the end. Let me put it this way – I feel better betting that the Missouri offense will persevere than Arkansas, and at this spread that is enough. Pick: Missouri.

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Central Michigan (-3) vs. Miami of Ohio – The MAC Championship won’t be the highest profile game of the day, but it should be a good one. I really like the Central Michigan offense. Dan LeFevour is a pleasure to watch at QB, and the unit is piling up the points lately. The defense can’t stop anything, but I’m not convinced that Miami has the offense to keep pace if this becomes a shootout. On a neutral field that should have a strong Central Michigan presence I like the Chippewas here. Pick: Central Michigan.

Tennessee (+7.5) vs. LSU – There are a lot of reasons in my mind to like Tennessee here. LSU lost some swagger, and their shot at a title, last weekend. Their coach is on the way out the door. Tennessee is playing well over the last month, and should have a huge boost coming off an emotional win against Kentucky last year. Tennessee QB Matt Flynn is questionable, and probably won’t be at his best even if he does play. I’m not confident that Tennessee will win, but I do like their chances of of keeping it close, and getting that extra half point on top of the touchdown makes them good value. Pick: Tennessee.

Missouri (+3) vs. Oklahoma - The top ranked team in the country is an underdog at a neutral site – this truly is a bizarre season. Missouri is in top form, they have the ultimate motivation to play for, and they showed last week that they can handle the pressure of huge games. Oklahoma struggled badly against Texas Tech, and the Mizzou offense is similarly elusive and explosive. It would be entirely different if the Tigers were heavily favored, but taking them and the points seems like a pretty solid idea. Pick: Missouri.

Arizona (+6.5) at Arizona State - USC will probably have the Pac-10 title wrapped up by the time this game kicks off, but I don’t expect that to diminish the effort the Sun Devils will show here.  For one, this is a huge rivalry for the team, and a chance to redeem themselves after a frustrating loss to USC. They also have a chance to play in a very big bowl game, and that would be a great way to cap a an outstanding an unexpected first year under Dennis Erickson. This line is as low as it is because Arizona has won three straight, but they have not been against good competition, so I am not buying it. Pick: Arizona State.

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Texas (-2.5) at Oklahoma State – I don’t love what Texas is doing this year, but I like them in this spot. The Horns have won three in a row, including an impressive comeback against Nebraska last weekend. Oklahoma State has a lousy pass defense which Texas will be able to exploit, and that will set up the Horns’ running game. Texas has won nine games in a row against the Cowboys, and I like their chances to do it again here. Pick: Texas.

Missouri (-3.5) at Colorado - Missouri has been doing a good job in recent weeks of shutting down opposing offenses and scoring a lot of points on their own. They are truly a classy team. Colorado has been surprisingly good, but in two of the last three weeks they have struggled against balanced teams like Missouri. This line provides value for the Tigers. Pick: Missouri.

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Tulsa (-2.5) at UTEP – Tulsa had a rough week last week, but they are still a fantastic offense, and they should be able to handily score more points than UTEP. The Miners have a terrible pass defense for Smith to exploit. If both teams are at their best then this line is a steal. Pick: Tulsa.

Nebraska and Missouri over 68 – I don’t play totals very often, but this one caught my eye. Both teams have offenses that can pile up the point, and neither team has shown any ability whatsoever to stop anyone. Both coaches will be looking to make a point and prove their worth and the worth of their team. I think this will be a serious shootout. Pick: Over.

Miami (-7.5) at North Carolina – North Carolina played Virginia Tech tight last week while Miami has disappointed against the spread in three of the last four weeks. Given that we get the extra half point above the touchdown here, I find the Tar Heels very attractive. Pick: North Carolina.

Oklahoma (-12) vs. Texas – I don’t often play the really high profile games like this, but I can’t resist here. Both teams had disastrous weeks last week, but I have much more confidence in Oklahoma’s ability to bounce back than I do with Texas. Texas is deeply flawed, and I expect Sam Bradford to be able to exploit those problems. Oklahoma will be pissed off after last week, and I don’t expect them to keep this close. Pick: Oklahoma.

Central Florida (-3.5) at East Carolina – East Carolina is getting more respect than they deserve here because they upset Houston last week. That was thanks to mistakes by Kevin Kolb’s replacement at QB, though, and it won’t happen here. Central Florida runs a ton, and they are very good at it. East Carolina struggles against the run. Pick: Central Florida.

Minnesota (+12) at Indiana – I like pretty much everything that Kellen Lewis and Indiana have done, and nothing that Minnesota has done. My wife cheers for Minnesota (she thinks the idea of a gopher as a mascot is ridiculous, and therefore great), so picking against her is always fun. This one could get ugly. Pick: Indiana

UPDATE: An ugly week, but if you don’t believe you are going to have those then you are delusional. It started well with nice wins by Indiana and North Carolina, but that was the end of the good times. Oklahoma played well, but were let down by their lack of discipline – key penalties cost them the drive that would have covered. Central Florida didn’t show up, Tulsa lost a squeaker, and the total didn’t come through because though Missouri did their job and scored a ton Nebraska decided to take the night off. We’ll get them next week. On the pus side, at least I’m not a USC fan.

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