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Sunday, Sunday, Sunday

Sat, 10 Nov 2007 06:53:21 +0000

There may be more, but as of Friday night these are the NFL games I will be paying speciall attention to:

Philadelphia (+2.5) at Washington – Neither of these teams are playing particularly well right now. The difference, I think, is that Washington has the chance to rebound and make the playoffs, while this has the stench of a lost season for Philadelphia. Washington has played better at home than on the road, and they are back in front of their faithful after a couple of weeks away. Given the reasonable spread, the value is on the Redskins. Pick: Washington.

Dallas (-1.5) at N.Y. Giants – This is being painted as a battle for the top of the NFC, but I’m not buying it. New York is getting way too much credit for it’s six game winning streak. The last four wins have been against a true pack of losers – Miami, San Francisco, Atlanta, and the Jets. They looked pathetic against Miami, and I am not certain that you could call their offense trustworthy or particularly legitimate. This game could be a shootout, and I don’t like the Giants’ chances of keeping up. Tony Romo isn’t going to be as bothered by the pass rush as other quarterbacks with less swagger have. Pick: Dallas.

Detroit (+1.5) at Arizona – Try as I might, I can’t come up with a particularly good reason not to take a shot on Detroit here. This line really caught me off guard. I’m going to quit trying to over think it and just put my money down. Pick: Detroit.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at San Diego – I think that there is a ton of value in Indianapolis. They are going to be pissed off after their loss last weekend, and they will take it out on the Chargers. San Diego looked dismal last week, and they have only beaten bad teams this year. Indy has some injury issues, but I don’t think they are serious enough to overcome the advantage that Indy has in how they have been playing. Pick: Indianapolis.

Buffalo (-2.5) at Miami - I love how Buffalo has played the last three games. I don’t love anything about Miami. They are ravaged by injuries, they have nothing to play for, and they see to be self-destructing under the watch of a terrible coaching staff. Buffalo is playing like they believe in what they are doing, and I am a sucker for a plucky upstart. That makes the Bills the pick. Pick: Buffalo.

UPDATE: A very frustrating Sunday. Buffalo and Dallas did just what I hoped, but nothing else went right. Washington collapsed badly at the end, Detroit just forgot to show up, and Indy lost one of the most disgustingly bad football games in recent memory. 2-3 and the first losing weekend in the NFL in a long time.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

Seeking value on a college football Saturday

Sat, 10 Nov 2007 05:44:55 +0000

There are four games that have caught my eye this weekend because of the value they offer:

Indiana (-1.5) at Northwestern – This is a game between two teams who are better than they have been in recent years, but still are a long way from being great. Of the two, though, I think Indiana is further ahead. It hasn’t been a smooth road, and they were struggling before a big win last week, but I think that their offense has more depth and is a bit more reliable. Northwestern has had big wins, but they seem to be playing above themselves when they do well. Given that the spread is essentially a pick, I think that the value is with the Hoosiers. Pick: Indiana.

Michigan (-2.5) at Wisconsin – I have a firm rule that I will never bet on my beloved Michigan Wolverines. Rules, of course, are made to be broken. I am a little concerned that Michigan won’t be at full effort because a win here doesn’t affect the team’s ability to win the conference if they beat Ohio State. Regardless, Michigan is on a roll, they are playing with focus and determination, and I don’t think that Lloyd Carr will let them slack off – this Ohio State game matters as much as any in a long time, and they need to stay sharp to win it. I wouldn’t be interested in betting on this game if the spread were a little wider, but I had set it in my mind at well over the key number of three, so the fact that my Wolverines only need to win by a field goal to pay off here gives the bet too much value to pass up. Pick: Michigan.

Virginia (+3.5) at Miami - I love this game. From a betting perspective, that is – I doubt it will be fascinating to watch. Virginia has been playing tough, determined football, and they stay close virtually every time out. They are in the unfamiliar position of being ranked, and I think that they want to stay there. They have much more to play for than Miami, they are a better team right now, and they are solid value at this price. Pick: Virginia.

Kentucky (-3.5) at Vanderbilt – The Wildcats are going through a rough stretch right now. After a very impressive start, Kentucky has lost three of four, and have had a word of troubles. They’ve had a week off to get their act together, and I look for them to finish strong down the stretch. Vanderbilt has a nice win against South Carolina on their record, but for the most part they just haven’t been good enough against top teams. I think that this game has the potential to get out of hand. Pick: Kentucky.

UPDATE: You’d never guess that the Big Ten is my favorite conference, because I sucked at picking them this weekend. Thankfully, I am good at picking conferences I don’t care about. Kentucky won a close game and covered, and Virginia laid a royal beatdown on Miami. That leaves me at an acceptable 3-2 for the weekend (including Thursday). I’m not making excuses, but I never would have been on Michigan if I had have made the choices late Saturday morning instead of Friday night, because the game was very different once Mike Hart wasn’t playing. Regardless, I made the pick and I will live with it.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

Week 8 NFL picks (just 364 more days to the Breeders’ Cup)

Sun, 28 Oct 2007 15:34:34 +0000

I’m playing an abnormally high number of NFL games this week (8) because I am feeling post-Breeders’ Cup withdrawal, so the action will help me shake the blues.

Indianapolis (-6.5) at Carolina – I am concerned by the injury situations of both Marvin Harrison and Tony Ugoh. Despite that, Indy’s defense is healthy, and that makes the Panthers an automatic bet-against in my book thanks to the Vinny Testaverde factor. You can not get ready for a team like in as little time as Vinny has had, and I don’t care how Disney-like his story has been. Pick: Indy.

New York Giants (-9.5) vs. Miami in London - Given the recent play of both teams this spread seems about accurate. Add in the season ending injuries to Ronnie Brown and Renaldo Hill, and the absence of Zach Thomas, and I am more than happy to do the oftentimes unthinkable – put my faith in Eli manning. Pick: Giants.

Oakland (+6.5) at Tennessee – I was basing my pick on this game on one thing – reports out of Titans camp on the status of Vince Young. He’s apparently fine. The Raiders defense has been fading in recent weeks, and Young’s mobility and creativity ids the kind of thing that can cause a defense like that to have a very bad day. Pick: Tennessee.

Philadelphia (-1) at Minnesota – I like to take a first stab at handicapping games before I see the spread. When I looked at this one I thought that the Eagles would win a close game because Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass and because the Minnesota quarterbacking situation is cloudy at this point. This spread fit well with my theory. Pick: Philadelphia.

Buffalo (+3) at New York Jets – When you get to take the best team and the points then it’s a no-brainer. Buffalo is one crazy finish against Dallas away from being unbeaten in three. The Jest haven’t won since they saw the even more pathetic Dolphins. The Bills are playing with heart. That makes one team. Pick: Buffalo.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay’s defense will be able to give Quinn Gray fits, and Jeff Garcia will be as surgically precise as he has been all year against a Jaguars defense that had a pretty rough week last week. Pick: Tampa Bay.

New Orleans (-1) at San Francisco – I desperately want to like the 49ers, but they are making that a very tough thing to do this year. The Saints’ offense is finally showing signs of life, and the Niners have made competent offenses look very good in recent weeks. Pick: New Orleans.

Washington (+17) at New England – The Pats are better than the Redskins. Probably way better. 17 points against a decent team is way, way too many, though. I’ll take a shot with Washington. Pick: Redskins.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

Week six college picks (rhyme intentional – I’m a poet)

Sat, 06 Oct 2007 13:30:45 +0000

It’s not the most exciting and enticing week of the season in my eyes, but there are still six games I will be playing. Here’s a look:

Tulsa (-2.5) at UTEP – Tulsa had a rough week last week, but they are still a fantastic offense, and they should be able to handily score more points than UTEP. The Miners have a terrible pass defense for Smith to exploit. If both teams are at their best then this line is a steal. Pick: Tulsa.

Nebraska and Missouri over 68 – I don’t play totals very often, but this one caught my eye. Both teams have offenses that can pile up the point, and neither team has shown any ability whatsoever to stop anyone. Both coaches will be looking to make a point and prove their worth and the worth of their team. I think this will be a serious shootout. Pick: Over.

Miami (-7.5) at North Carolina – North Carolina played Virginia Tech tight last week while Miami has disappointed against the spread in three of the last four weeks. Given that we get the extra half point above the touchdown here, I find the Tar Heels very attractive. Pick: North Carolina.

Oklahoma (-12) vs. Texas – I don’t often play the really high profile games like this, but I can’t resist here. Both teams had disastrous weeks last week, but I have much more confidence in Oklahoma’s ability to bounce back than I do with Texas. Texas is deeply flawed, and I expect Sam Bradford to be able to exploit those problems. Oklahoma will be pissed off after last week, and I don’t expect them to keep this close. Pick: Oklahoma.

Central Florida (-3.5) at East Carolina – East Carolina is getting more respect than they deserve here because they upset Houston last week. That was thanks to mistakes by Kevin Kolb’s replacement at QB, though, and it won’t happen here. Central Florida runs a ton, and they are very good at it. East Carolina struggles against the run. Pick: Central Florida.

Minnesota (+12) at Indiana – I like pretty much everything that Kellen Lewis and Indiana have done, and nothing that Minnesota has done. My wife cheers for Minnesota (she thinks the idea of a gopher as a mascot is ridiculous, and therefore great), so picking against her is always fun. This one could get ugly. Pick: Indiana

UPDATE: An ugly week, but if you don’t believe you are going to have those then you are delusional. It started well with nice wins by Indiana and North Carolina, but that was the end of the good times. Oklahoma played well, but were let down by their lack of discipline – key penalties cost them the drive that would have covered. Central Florida didn’t show up, Tulsa lost a squeaker, and the total didn’t come through because though Missouri did their job and scored a ton Nebraska decided to take the night off. We’ll get them next week. On the pus side, at least I’m not a USC fan.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet