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Kentucky (-1) vs. Florida State (Monday, Dec. 31, 4:00 p.m. ET) – Tough game between two flawed teams. In the end I think Kentucky has the edge in a game that is essentially a pick ‘em. Three reasons – Kentucky can score more points than Florida State and I don’t think the Seminoles can keep up in a shootout; Kentucky will be more motivated because it is the end of the line for this offense thanks to the graduation of Andre Woodson, and Kentucky should have a big crowd because it is close to home. Pick: Kentucky.

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Michigan (-2.5) at Wisconsin – I have a firm rule that I will never bet on my beloved Michigan Wolverines. Rules, of course, are made to be broken. I am a little concerned that Michigan won’t be at full effort because a win here doesn’t affect the team’s ability to win the conference if they beat Ohio State. Regardless, Michigan is on a roll, they are playing with focus and determination, and I don’t think that Lloyd Carr will let them slack off – this Ohio State game matters as much as any in a long time, and they need to stay sharp to win it. I wouldn’t be interested in betting on this game if the spread were a little wider, but I had set it in my mind at well over the key number of three, so the fact that my Wolverines only need to win by a field goal to pay off here gives the bet too much value to pass up. Pick: Michigan.

Virginia (+3.5) at Miami - I love this game. From a betting perspective, that is – I doubt it will be fascinating to watch. Virginia has been playing tough, determined football, and they stay close virtually every time out. They are in the unfamiliar position of being ranked, and I think that they want to stay there. They have much more to play for than Miami, they are a better team right now, and they are solid value at this price. Pick: Virginia.

Kentucky (-3.5) at Vanderbilt – The Wildcats are going through a rough stretch right now. After a very impressive start, Kentucky has lost three of four, and have had a word of troubles. They’ve had a week off to get their act together, and I look for them to finish strong down the stretch. Vanderbilt has a nice win against South Carolina on their record, but for the most part they just haven’t been good enough against top teams. I think that this game has the potential to get out of hand. Pick: Kentucky.

UPDATE: You’d never guess that the Big Ten is my favorite conference, because I sucked at picking them this weekend. Thankfully, I am good at picking conferences I don’t care about. Kentucky won a close game and covered, and Virginia laid a royal beatdown on Miami. That leaves me at an acceptable 3-2 for the weekend (including Thursday). I’m not making excuses, but I never would have been on Michigan if I had have made the choices late Saturday morning instead of Friday night, because the game was very different once Mike Hart wasn’t playing. Regardless, I made the pick and I will live with it.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

The college football schedule is set up nicely this week for interest – one game each night on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I ignored last night’s game between Rice and Southern Mississippi because, well, it was Rice and Southern Mississippi. Tonight’s game between Kentucky and South Carolina, though, is one I have had circled on my calendar for a few weeks. It is the first real chance we get to see if the upstart Wildcats are for real. Here’s my analysis:

Kentucky (+4.5) at South Carolina – This is a tough game. The Wildcats have an inflated record by playing three weak teams and two high profile teams with serious flaws. South Carolina is a fairly legitimate team, though they were clearly outclassed when they stepped up in competition to face LSU. Much is being made of the effectiveness of the SC pass defense, currently ranked first in the country. While this is true, I think that it is a bit of a hollow stat. They haven’t faced an offense that is great at passing yet, and they certainly haven’t seen anyone like Andre Woodson. Georgia isn’t exactly a passing powerhouse, and yet Matthew Stafford passed more more than his season average of yards against SC. I think that Woodson will still be able to move the ball, though maybe not quite as much as normal. The Wildcats have a solid pass defense which should be able to contain Chris Smelley (best name in college football? Or is it Casey Dick?) reasonably well. It looks like Kentucky has a bad run defense, but those numbers are skewed because they got torched on the ground by Arkansas. There is no shame in that, and South Carolina will offer nothing near that caliber. It comes down to this in my mind – Kentucky will still be able to score, though perhaps not as much. South Carolina has struggled to score a lot at the best of times, so I don’t see how they stay a touchdown or more ahead. That means that if they win they are most likely to win by a field goal in my mind, and that makes Kentucky +4.5 attractive. Pick: Kentucky +4.5

UPDATE: Oops. This game showed the reason why coaches frown on turnovers. Kentucky would have been competitive, and may very well have won, if they didn’t insist on turning the ball over every time they touched it. When you go over 200 yards in rushing and passing you shouldn’t lose by 15. I’ll be curious to see how the Heisman buzz for Woodson reacts to this game. Not well, I would guess. I was also somewhat impressed by Chris Smelley. Not perfect, but I doubt that we’ll see Blake Mitchell again.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet