I like Saturday’s games way more than I like Sunday’s. That doesn’t mean that I am going to be original, though – it’s going to be all about the chalk today. I don’t love being in line with the public, but I can’t justify going another way here.

Washington (+3.5) at Seattle – The Redskins have been playing with emotion and determination. The Seahawks really haven’t. Washington matches up well on the run against the Seattle front line, and should be able to score. If Seattle wins they should win a close game, and my guess is that they won’t even manage that. Pick: Washington.

Jacksonville (-2.5) at Pittsburgh – Jacksonville is the total media darling, but in this case they deserve it. Pittsburgh has looked lackluster recently. They have lost three of four. Jacksonville beat them less than a month ago, and that was before the Steelers got hit badly by injuries. The Jags will be able to run all day, and they will score at a pace that I am not sure Pittsburgh can match in their current state. This is my favorite game of the weekend. Pick: Jacksonville.

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Washington (-3.5) at New York Jets – Washington was embarrassed by New England last week. I suspect that their pride will lead them to take out their frustrations on a far inferior New York team. The last time they had a bad loss, to the Giants, they came back the next week and crushed Detroit. Kellen Clemens is starting, and Washington will do everything they can to make his life miserable. Pick: Washington.

Seattle (pick) at Cleveland – When the game is a pick you just put your money on the better team. That is, unbelievably, Cleveland. Their offense has really found its stride, and they are playing like they finally believe in themselves – something they haven’t done since Bernie Kosar retired. Seattle is coming off a bye, but they have been decidedly lackluster all year, and I am not expecting to be impressed. Pick: Cleveland.

Jacksonville (+3) at New Orleans – The Jags have struggled defensively the last few weeks. New Orleans is experiencing an offensive renaissance. The game could become a shootout. If it does then I would bet on New Orleans every time, because I don’t like Quinn Gray’s chances of keeping up. Pick: New Orleans.

Dallas (-3) at Philadelphia – I’ve been taking the public teams all the way along today, so I might as well stick with it. At this spread I think Dallas is a steal. They have had a bye week to prepare for an inferior team. They have an offense that Philly won’t be able to keep up with. They did a decent job of containing Minnesota’s potent run game and should be able to do the same for Philadelphia. If Dallas is near their best then I don’t see how the Eagles compete. Pick: Dallas.

UPDATE: Sooo close. 3-1 on the games today, and a lousy half a point in the Washington game away from 4-0 and a perfect weekend. I think that the Dallas line was one of the softest ones of the season.

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Indianapolis (-6.5) at Carolina – I am concerned by the injury situations of both Marvin Harrison and Tony Ugoh. Despite that, Indy’s defense is healthy, and that makes the Panthers an automatic bet-against in my book thanks to the Vinny Testaverde factor. You can not get ready for a team like in as little time as Vinny has had, and I don’t care how Disney-like his story has been. Pick: Indy.

New York Giants (-9.5) vs. Miami in London - Given the recent play of both teams this spread seems about accurate. Add in the season ending injuries to Ronnie Brown and Renaldo Hill, and the absence of Zach Thomas, and I am more than happy to do the oftentimes unthinkable – put my faith in Eli manning. Pick: Giants.

Oakland (+6.5) at Tennessee – I was basing my pick on this game on one thing – reports out of Titans camp on the status of Vince Young. He’s apparently fine. The Raiders defense has been fading in recent weeks, and Young’s mobility and creativity ids the kind of thing that can cause a defense like that to have a very bad day. Pick: Tennessee.

Philadelphia (-1) at Minnesota – I like to take a first stab at handicapping games before I see the spread. When I looked at this one I thought that the Eagles would win a close game because Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass and because the Minnesota quarterbacking situation is cloudy at this point. This spread fit well with my theory. Pick: Philadelphia.

Buffalo (+3) at New York Jets – When you get to take the best team and the points then it’s a no-brainer. Buffalo is one crazy finish against Dallas away from being unbeaten in three. The Jest haven’t won since they saw the even more pathetic Dolphins. The Bills are playing with heart. That makes one team. Pick: Buffalo.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay’s defense will be able to give Quinn Gray fits, and Jeff Garcia will be as surgically precise as he has been all year against a Jaguars defense that had a pretty rough week last week. Pick: Tampa Bay.

New Orleans (-1) at San Francisco – I desperately want to like the 49ers, but they are making that a very tough thing to do this year. The Saints’ offense is finally showing signs of life, and the Niners have made competent offenses look very good in recent weeks. Pick: New Orleans.

Washington (+17) at New England – The Pats are better than the Redskins. Probably way better. 17 points against a decent team is way, way too many, though. I’ll take a shot with Washington. Pick: Redskins.

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