Atlanta (+14.5) at Tampa Bay – I said I would pass on the Falcons, and I am a big Jeff Garcia guy, but this line is too much to ignore. Tampa Bay struggled badly last week, they aren’t consistent, and Atlanta is going to be fired up after the Petrino debacle. The Falcons are not good, but I think that their rage can keep them within two touchdowns here. Pick: Atlanta.

Indianapolis (-10.5) at Oakland – I don’t like backing the Colts this year, but they are in a good spot here. Their offense is on fire, and the Raiders have a world of troubles. They are experimenting at quarterback, Lane Kiffin is reportedly flirting with at least one college team, and the season is lost. Pick: Indy.

Cincinnati (-8) at San Francisco – As is the theme this week, Cincinnati is not a team I like to bet on. That being said, their offense is looking better recently, and San Francisco is a mess everywhere, but especially at quarterback this week. I’m not convinced that there is a ton of value in this pick, but there is enough for me to be on it. Pick: Cincinnati.

Saturday night update: Wow, are the Bengals ever a bad team. Marvin Lewis needs to not only be fired but also arrested for criminally wasting so much offensive talent. Their offense was terrible, and their defense was as bad as expected – they made first time starter Shaun Hill look like Tom Brady. What a disgusting display by a disgusting team.

Sunday night update: Let’s just say that Sunday didn’t go any better than Saturday and leave it at that.

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Happy Thanksgiving to all you Americans out there. I’m a Canadian, so it’s not my Thanksgiving, but I work mostly for Americans, I will be lying on the couch watching football all day like most Americans, and I really, really love turkey, so there will be a bird in the oven at my house in the spirit of cross-border cooperation. It’s the least I can do.

The fun of watching the game will obviously be enhanced by having betting interests in them. I normally wouldn’t play all three of the NFL games, but then I wouldn’t normally spend a Thursday lying on the couch and gorging myself on Turkey, so it seems fitting to go all the way:

Green Bay (-3) at Detroit – I don’t want to overthink this one. I am sick of losing money on the Lions, and I don’t trust them. I don’t understand how it is happening, but the Packers are consistently winning. I think that they will continue their winning ways, and I think that only having to give up a field goal is a relative field goal. Pick: Green Bay

New York Jets (+14) at Dallas – I have gone back and forth on this one. Obviously the Cowboys are far superior, but they haven’t been blowing teams away, and the Jets did post a big upset last week. Despite that, New York can’t stop the run, and Dallas will be able to pound their backs, which will in turn provide opportunities for the passing game. I wish that the line were a bit smaller (and I think it probably should be), but I can’t convince myself to take the Jets. Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis (-13) at Atlanta – I must say in advance that I can’t believe I am actually going to pick the Falcons. The woes of the Colts are so extreme that I have no choice, though. The injury problems, most notably Marvin Harrison, are still a problem, and the team has lost its mojo. Though Atlanta is only 3-7, they have a surprisingly good record of 6-4 against the spread. They have played well in three of their last four, and will certainly be motivated to make a statement against a top team. I think Indy will still win the game, and under normal circumstances I wouldn’t touch this game, but I do believe that this spread is a bit high given the current reality. Pick: Atlanta

UPDATE: Wow, that was a terrible day of football. Three games, and barely a highlight. That’s ten hours of my life I will never get back.  It was made a bit more bearable thanks to the profit. Green Bay came through as expected, and the Jets failed to show up which made it easy for the Cowboys. That was two wins. Atlanta looked like they were going to give me a sweep, but they couldn’t stay close, and they couldn’t score a late, meaningless touchdown. Oh well, I’ll take 2-1 any day.

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Detroit (+1.5) at Arizona – Try as I might, I can’t come up with a particularly good reason not to take a shot on Detroit here. This line really caught me off guard. I’m going to quit trying to over think it and just put my money down. Pick: Detroit.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at San Diego – I think that there is a ton of value in Indianapolis. They are going to be pissed off after their loss last weekend, and they will take it out on the Chargers. San Diego looked dismal last week, and they have only beaten bad teams this year. Indy has some injury issues, but I don’t think they are serious enough to overcome the advantage that Indy has in how they have been playing. Pick: Indianapolis.

Buffalo (-2.5) at Miami - I love how Buffalo has played the last three games. I don’t love anything about Miami. They are ravaged by injuries, they have nothing to play for, and they see to be self-destructing under the watch of a terrible coaching staff. Buffalo is playing like they believe in what they are doing, and I am a sucker for a plucky upstart. That makes the Bills the pick. Pick: Buffalo.

UPDATE: A very frustrating Sunday. Buffalo and Dallas did just what I hoped, but nothing else went right. Washington collapsed badly at the end, Detroit just forgot to show up, and Indy lost one of the most disgustingly bad football games in recent memory. 2-3 and the first losing weekend in the NFL in a long time.

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New England (-5) at Indianapolis – Normally I wouldn’t touch this game. Having the defending Super Bowl champs, who are undefeated after seven weeks, as five point underdogs at home is way too bizarre to have anything to do with. Since this game is the only thing that anyone is talking about, though, I figure I had better wade right into it. Despite the odd line, I like New England. I have six reasons:

1. Marvin Harrison, if he plays, isn’t at full health. Manning hasn’t developed a relationship with another receiver that comes close to replacing that.
2. Manning hasn’t been as sharp in recent weeks as he can be. Harrison’s absence is part, but not all, of that. His completion percentage is low at times, and he has looked off somehow.
3. Indy’s defense is good, but they don’t have the depth to contain New England’s three stellar receivers, along with a good tight end and a passable run game.
4. New England is playing with a ferociousness and determination which isn’t an act. They have lost three in a row to Indy, and I am sure that they will be out to avenge those losses.
5. Tom Brady is playing as well as a quarterback can play.
6. I hate Indianapolis.

This should be a heck of a game and I can’t wait to watch it. I have a feeling that, which ever team comes out ahead, it isn’t going to be close. Pick: New England.

UPDATE: The game went close to how I hoped, but just not quite enough. The Colts defensive depth was eventually a problem, and Manning missed his key personnel, but the team held on for longer than I was hoping. We did learn a couple of things – Manning relies heavily on Harrison, and the Pats are really, really, good. Those last nine minutes, especially since they were played in a hostile road environment, were incredible. It was a great game, but there was a good reason I had no interest in betting on it – way too many variables when teams that good face off.

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Indianapolis (-6.5) at Carolina – I am concerned by the injury situations of both Marvin Harrison and Tony Ugoh. Despite that, Indy’s defense is healthy, and that makes the Panthers an automatic bet-against in my book thanks to the Vinny Testaverde factor. You can not get ready for a team like in as little time as Vinny has had, and I don’t care how Disney-like his story has been. Pick: Indy.

New York Giants (-9.5) vs. Miami in London - Given the recent play of both teams this spread seems about accurate. Add in the season ending injuries to Ronnie Brown and Renaldo Hill, and the absence of Zach Thomas, and I am more than happy to do the oftentimes unthinkable – put my faith in Eli manning. Pick: Giants.

Oakland (+6.5) at Tennessee – I was basing my pick on this game on one thing – reports out of Titans camp on the status of Vince Young. He’s apparently fine. The Raiders defense has been fading in recent weeks, and Young’s mobility and creativity ids the kind of thing that can cause a defense like that to have a very bad day. Pick: Tennessee.

Philadelphia (-1) at Minnesota – I like to take a first stab at handicapping games before I see the spread. When I looked at this one I thought that the Eagles would win a close game because Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass and because the Minnesota quarterbacking situation is cloudy at this point. This spread fit well with my theory. Pick: Philadelphia.

Buffalo (+3) at New York Jets – When you get to take the best team and the points then it’s a no-brainer. Buffalo is one crazy finish against Dallas away from being unbeaten in three. The Jest haven’t won since they saw the even more pathetic Dolphins. The Bills are playing with heart. That makes one team. Pick: Buffalo.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay’s defense will be able to give Quinn Gray fits, and Jeff Garcia will be as surgically precise as he has been all year against a Jaguars defense that had a pretty rough week last week. Pick: Tampa Bay.

New Orleans (-1) at San Francisco – I desperately want to like the 49ers, but they are making that a very tough thing to do this year. The Saints’ offense is finally showing signs of life, and the Niners have made competent offenses look very good in recent weeks. Pick: New Orleans.

Washington (+17) at New England – The Pats are better than the Redskins. Probably way better. 17 points against a decent team is way, way too many, though. I’ll take a shot with Washington. Pick: Redskins.

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