Ultra Sports Bet » indiana

Indiana proves you can rarely guess motivation

Wed, 20 Feb 2008 20:37:04 +0000

The fun thing about sports betting is that you never know what is going to happen. Coincidentally, that is also the frustrating thing. Indiana is a perfect and truly fascinating example.

For those that missed it, Indiana has been in turmoil for more than a week now. It basically boils down to this – head coach Kelvin Sampson is a total moron. He left Oklahoma before he got fired, but not before he caused that school to have to suffer sanctions for his recruiting violations. He somehow managed to get the job at Indiana despite being a total slime bucket. Proving that a snake is always a snake, he did the exact same things at Indiana that he was doing at Oklahoma, got caught, and will now lose his job as well as probably bringing sanctions to another proud and undeserving program. Or I suppose that the programs are deserving, because they were both dumb enough to hire Sampson in the first place.

Anyway, Indiana has been playing great, but they have shown some betting vulnerability recently. It would make sense given the distractions of the implosion of their program that they may not be at there best. This was an especially tempting train of thought because they had two straight rough games – Michigan State and Purdue, and because they were coming off a loss to a Wisconsin team that seems to be a step behind both the Spartans and the Boilermakers. A bet against Indiana in those games would have been too tempting to avoid.

Hopefully you did avoid the temptation. Indiana won both games easily, and covered in both cases. The Michigan State game was ridiculous – they won by 19 as four point favorites. The lesson? It is almost impossible to determine the motivation level of college athletes, and trying too hard to do so is a quick road to poverty.

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Bowling for Dollars – Insight Bowl

Sun, 30 Dec 2007 14:12:50 +0000

This is part of our Bowling for Dollars contest. You can start participating at any time. Check out the announcement here.

Oklahoma State (-4.5) vs. Indiana (Monday, Dec. 31, 5:30 p.m. ET) – Another tough game between two teams that are not amongst the class of their leagues. Both have pretty solid offenses and pretty uninspiring defenses. In the end, I like Indiana for two reasons – I get to take points instead of giving them, and the Kellen Lewis factor works on my side. Indiana’s quarterback is shifty and explosive – just the kind of player who can shine in the playoffs. Pick: Indiana.

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Seeking value on a college football Saturday

Sat, 10 Nov 2007 05:44:55 +0000

There are four games that have caught my eye this weekend because of the value they offer:

Indiana (-1.5) at Northwestern – This is a game between two teams who are better than they have been in recent years, but still are a long way from being great. Of the two, though, I think Indiana is further ahead. It hasn’t been a smooth road, and they were struggling before a big win last week, but I think that their offense has more depth and is a bit more reliable. Northwestern has had big wins, but they seem to be playing above themselves when they do well. Given that the spread is essentially a pick, I think that the value is with the Hoosiers. Pick: Indiana.

Michigan (-2.5) at Wisconsin – I have a firm rule that I will never bet on my beloved Michigan Wolverines. Rules, of course, are made to be broken. I am a little concerned that Michigan won’t be at full effort because a win here doesn’t affect the team’s ability to win the conference if they beat Ohio State. Regardless, Michigan is on a roll, they are playing with focus and determination, and I don’t think that Lloyd Carr will let them slack off – this Ohio State game matters as much as any in a long time, and they need to stay sharp to win it. I wouldn’t be interested in betting on this game if the spread were a little wider, but I had set it in my mind at well over the key number of three, so the fact that my Wolverines only need to win by a field goal to pay off here gives the bet too much value to pass up. Pick: Michigan.

Virginia (+3.5) at Miami - I love this game. From a betting perspective, that is – I doubt it will be fascinating to watch. Virginia has been playing tough, determined football, and they stay close virtually every time out. They are in the unfamiliar position of being ranked, and I think that they want to stay there. They have much more to play for than Miami, they are a better team right now, and they are solid value at this price. Pick: Virginia.

Kentucky (-3.5) at Vanderbilt – The Wildcats are going through a rough stretch right now. After a very impressive start, Kentucky has lost three of four, and have had a word of troubles. They’ve had a week off to get their act together, and I look for them to finish strong down the stretch. Vanderbilt has a nice win against South Carolina on their record, but for the most part they just haven’t been good enough against top teams. I think that this game has the potential to get out of hand. Pick: Kentucky.

UPDATE: You’d never guess that the Big Ten is my favorite conference, because I sucked at picking them this weekend. Thankfully, I am good at picking conferences I don’t care about. Kentucky won a close game and covered, and Virginia laid a royal beatdown on Miami. That leaves me at an acceptable 3-2 for the weekend (including Thursday). I’m not making excuses, but I never would have been on Michigan if I had have made the choices late Saturday morning instead of Friday night, because the game was very different once Mike Hart wasn’t playing. Regardless, I made the pick and I will live with it.

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