New York Giants (+7) at Green Bay – I’ve burned money two weekends in a row by betting against the Giants. Why stop now? I don’t believe in this team despite their recent playoff run, and I am not confident that their pass rush will be able to shut down an opposing quarterback three weeks in a row. With the spread where it is I wouldn’t at all be surprised to have my money refunded for a push, but I still think that the value lies with the better team playing at home. Pick: Green Bay.

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I had a pretty good feeling about the games last Saturday, and I got them both wrong. Maybe it’s a good thing, then, that I don’t feel great about either of today’s games.

Seattle (+8) at Green Bay – I have no doubt that Green Bay is the better team and the pick. I’m just not particularly thrilled about having to give up eight points to take them. I don’t like the Seahawks at all, but last week is a clear sign that I underestimate them. Green Bay has more talent, more emotion, and they are at home, so I have to just bite the bullet and give the points. Hasselbeck’s bruised thigh makes me feel a bit better about having to do it. Pick: Green Bay.

Jacksonville (+15) at New England – I wasn’t at all happy about making a pick, but I feel a bit better now that I was able to find -15 at 5Dimes. The best bet there is on this game, I guess, is to take Jacksonville and hope that they can stay within two touchdowns. If they play at their best then I don’t see why that can’t happen. The problem is that I also don’t struggle to much to see the Pats win it by 30. reagrdless, the closest thing to value is the Jags. Pick: Jacksonville.

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Since I played so many games anyway, and since I have a tie, and since I hate ties, I might as well play the Monday night game. I am normally not nearly this footloose on my picks, but it’s a unique weekend.

Green Bay (+3) at Denver – Denver has three wins this year by a combined five points. When they win they have been barely winning. Green Bay has a stout defense, and they are very well rested (15 days between games) and healthy. Jay Cutler’s accuracy will be challenged by the aggressive defense, and he has struggled to put up points at the best of times. I think Green Bay will win, but even if they don’t this spread is very attractive because it provides a push at the most likely margin of loss. Pick: Green Bay.

UPDATE: What a freaking incredible pass that was by Favre to end the game in overtime and give me the win. At the beginning of the year I said repeatedly that I thought that it was time for Favre to pack it in because the game had passed him by. Well, the team is 6-1, he’s having an excellent year, and I look like a bit of an idiot. At least I’m used to that. And I got the win.

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Cincinnati (-1) at Kansas City – Neither of these teams have been very good at all, but the difference is that one of them should be. For the first half of the season I sometimes revert to a mental game to help me look at games like this – on a neutral field before the season started who would have been favored in this game? The answer, in my mind, would be Cincinnati in a cake walk. That makes them attractive to me here. The Kansas City secondary has mostly been solid, and they have a highly rated pass defense (#5), but they haven’t met a passing game with anywhere near the potential of the Bengals. If it gets to be a shootout, which it could because the Bengals haven’t exactly been able to stop anyone, then I like Carson Palmer over Damon Huard every time. Pick: Cincinnati.

St. Louis (+9.5) at Baltimore – I don’t like the Rams at all, but I don’t understand what the Ravens have done to justify being favored by this much. They have won their games by 2, 3, and 7 points this year, and they have yet to cover a spread. Again, I am not suggesting that the Rams are a good team, but they certainly have the potential to be better than they have been up to this point, and I think that this line compensates more for the worst case scenario then it does for a likely reality. Pick: St. Louis.

New Orleans (+7) at Seattle – I don’t want you to think that I am picking the Saints because they are due or something ridiculous. I am going with the Saints, but it’s because I think that there is a world of value in this line. Seattle’s running game is unsettled with Shaun Alexander out and Mack Strong newly retired. That means that the game could turn into a shootout and, despite the evidence of this year so far, I think that New Orleans can fare well enough to stay close in that kind of game. On paper they certainly should. Seattle has not looked like an inspired, committed team this year, and this could be a good spot for a hungry, embarrassed New Orleans team to try to right the ship. Pick: New Orleans.

Washington (+3.5) at Green Bay – The Chicago defense isn’t at its best this year, yet it was able last week to force the Packers to get conservative in the second half, and that limited them to just three points and caused them to lose. Washington has a secondary that very good, and it managed to completely shut down the Detroit passing offense last week. Washington QB Jason Campbell was very efficient and effective last week, and he could do that again if he can find the time. If that happens I think that Green Bay, which has been playing well but certainly over their heads compared to preseason expectations, could struggle to stay well ahead of the Redskins. That make this line, where a field goal loss for Washington is still a win, attractive to me. Pick: Washington.

Miami (+3.5) at Cleveland – The Dolphins are a really, really bad team. Not only that, but they have to face life with Cleo Lemon as their starter, and with Ronnie Brown and Jason Taylor hurting. Cleveland is a better team than many would expect, and this is the kind of game, with a struggling team visiting them, where they could really be tasting blood. Coach Romeo Crennel will be looking to recapture momentum after the New England loss and before the bye week. It also needs to be noted that Cleveland played a lot better against New England than the score would indicate. They had Tom Brady looking unsettled much more than any other team has, and they held the Pats scoreless for more than 20 minutes. Pick: Cleveland.

UPDATE: The week started badly when I misread both St. Louis and Cincinnati and gave them both significantly more credit than they obviously deserve. Those are two bad, bad teams. Thankfully it settled down nicely after that. New Orleans finally looked like New Orleans, Cleveland was as impressive as they needed to be thanks to some incredible chemistry between Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards, and Washington was able to hold on to lose by few enough points to keep me in the game. All in all, it was a 3-2 week that I’m not complaining about.

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