The college football schedule is set up nicely this week for interest – one game each night on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I ignored last night’s game between Rice and Southern Mississippi because, well, it was Rice and Southern Mississippi. Tonight’s game between Kentucky and South Carolina, though, is one I have had circled on my calendar for a few weeks. It is the first real chance we get to see if the upstart Wildcats are for real. Here’s my analysis:

Kentucky (+4.5) at South Carolina – This is a tough game. The Wildcats have an inflated record by playing three weak teams and two high profile teams with serious flaws. South Carolina is a fairly legitimate team, though they were clearly outclassed when they stepped up in competition to face LSU. Much is being made of the effectiveness of the SC pass defense, currently ranked first in the country. While this is true, I think that it is a bit of a hollow stat. They haven’t faced an offense that is great at passing yet, and they certainly haven’t seen anyone like Andre Woodson. Georgia isn’t exactly a passing powerhouse, and yet Matthew Stafford passed more more than his season average of yards against SC. I think that Woodson will still be able to move the ball, though maybe not quite as much as normal. The Wildcats have a solid pass defense which should be able to contain Chris Smelley (best name in college football? Or is it Casey Dick?) reasonably well. It looks like Kentucky has a bad run defense, but those numbers are skewed because they got torched on the ground by Arkansas. There is no shame in that, and South Carolina will offer nothing near that caliber. It comes down to this in my mind – Kentucky will still be able to score, though perhaps not as much. South Carolina has struggled to score a lot at the best of times, so I don’t see how they stay a touchdown or more ahead. That means that if they win they are most likely to win by a field goal in my mind, and that makes Kentucky +4.5 attractive. Pick: Kentucky +4.5

UPDATE: Oops. This game showed the reason why coaches frown on turnovers. Kentucky would have been competitive, and may very well have won, if they didn’t insist on turning the ball over every time they touched it. When you go over 200 yards in rushing and passing you shouldn’t lose by 15. I’ll be curious to see how the Heisman buzz for Woodson reacts to this game. Not well, I would guess. I was also somewhat impressed by Chris Smelley. Not perfect, but I doubt that we’ll see Blake Mitchell again.

Post from: Ultra Sports Bet