I wouldn’t touch the Monday Night game with a 100 foot pole. Both teams are ridiculously flawed and I don’t see any way to squeeze any value out of it. It’s also a frustratingly dull night on the college front. What’s a guy to do to get a little action? Look to the rink, I guess. There are two games that are reasonably interesting on Monday night:

Anaheim (+100) at Columbus – Anaheim got a huge boost with the announced return of Scott Niedermayer this week, and I expect them to ride that wave to a victory over the struggling Blue Jackets.

Edmonton at Dallas (-1.5 +155) – I am from Calgary, so hatred for the Oilers is programmed into my DNA. Dallas is a better team, and the Oilers don’t travel well. I’ll take a risk at this price that Edmonton won’t be competitive.

UPDATE: Anaheim won, and so did Dallas, but not by enough. That means I exactly break even on the day. That seems fitting for a sports day that was so flat and uninteresting.

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Green Bay (+7) at Dallas - I’ll start at the end and go backwards. I’m taking Green Bay and the points. I think that the game is pretty well matched and could go any way, so I will take the one that gets the points. There are three key matchups I think could affect the outcome of the game. The first is Tony Romo vs. the Green Bay pass rush. Romo gets sacked more than he should, andGreen Bay has two solid rush ends. Advantage: Green Bay. Next up – the Dallas running game vs. the Green Bay run defense. Green Bay gives up more than 100 yards per game on the ground, and Dallas has a pretty good two headed monster carrying the ball. Advantage: Dallas. And the tiebreaker: Brett Favre vs. the Dallas pass defense. Favre is in the zone, and the pass defense is the weakest part of Dallas’ overall game (bottom third of the league). The potential exists for Favre to have a big day. Advantage: Green Bay. That 2-1. I’m nothing if not democratic, so I will lean slightly towards taking the points, especially now that the number has drifted up to the key number of seven. Pick: Green Bay.

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Happy Thanksgiving to all you Americans out there. I’m a Canadian, so it’s not my Thanksgiving, but I work mostly for Americans, I will be lying on the couch watching football all day like most Americans, and I really, really love turkey, so there will be a bird in the oven at my house in the spirit of cross-border cooperation. It’s the least I can do.

The fun of watching the game will obviously be enhanced by having betting interests in them. I normally wouldn’t play all three of the NFL games, but then I wouldn’t normally spend a Thursday lying on the couch and gorging myself on Turkey, so it seems fitting to go all the way:

Green Bay (-3) at Detroit – I don’t want to overthink this one. I am sick of losing money on the Lions, and I don’t trust them. I don’t understand how it is happening, but the Packers are consistently winning. I think that they will continue their winning ways, and I think that only having to give up a field goal is a relative field goal. Pick: Green Bay

New York Jets (+14) at Dallas – I have gone back and forth on this one. Obviously the Cowboys are far superior, but they haven’t been blowing teams away, and the Jets did post a big upset last week. Despite that, New York can’t stop the run, and Dallas will be able to pound their backs, which will in turn provide opportunities for the passing game. I wish that the line were a bit smaller (and I think it probably should be), but I can’t convince myself to take the Jets. Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis (-13) at Atlanta – I must say in advance that I can’t believe I am actually going to pick the Falcons. The woes of the Colts are so extreme that I have no choice, though. The injury problems, most notably Marvin Harrison, are still a problem, and the team has lost its mojo. Though Atlanta is only 3-7, they have a surprisingly good record of 6-4 against the spread. They have played well in three of their last four, and will certainly be motivated to make a statement against a top team. I think Indy will still win the game, and under normal circumstances I wouldn’t touch this game, but I do believe that this spread is a bit high given the current reality. Pick: Atlanta

UPDATE: Wow, that was a terrible day of football. Three games, and barely a highlight. That’s ten hours of my life I will never get back.  It was made a bit more bearable thanks to the profit. Green Bay came through as expected, and the Jets failed to show up which made it easy for the Cowboys. That was two wins. Atlanta looked like they were going to give me a sweep, but they couldn’t stay close, and they couldn’t score a late, meaningless touchdown. Oh well, I’ll take 2-1 any day.

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Detroit (+1.5) at Arizona – Try as I might, I can’t come up with a particularly good reason not to take a shot on Detroit here. This line really caught me off guard. I’m going to quit trying to over think it and just put my money down. Pick: Detroit.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at San Diego – I think that there is a ton of value in Indianapolis. They are going to be pissed off after their loss last weekend, and they will take it out on the Chargers. San Diego looked dismal last week, and they have only beaten bad teams this year. Indy has some injury issues, but I don’t think they are serious enough to overcome the advantage that Indy has in how they have been playing. Pick: Indianapolis.

Buffalo (-2.5) at Miami - I love how Buffalo has played the last three games. I don’t love anything about Miami. They are ravaged by injuries, they have nothing to play for, and they see to be self-destructing under the watch of a terrible coaching staff. Buffalo is playing like they believe in what they are doing, and I am a sucker for a plucky upstart. That makes the Bills the pick. Pick: Buffalo.

UPDATE: A very frustrating Sunday. Buffalo and Dallas did just what I hoped, but nothing else went right. Washington collapsed badly at the end, Detroit just forgot to show up, and Indy lost one of the most disgustingly bad football games in recent memory. 2-3 and the first losing weekend in the NFL in a long time.

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Washington (-3.5) at New York Jets – Washington was embarrassed by New England last week. I suspect that their pride will lead them to take out their frustrations on a far inferior New York team. The last time they had a bad loss, to the Giants, they came back the next week and crushed Detroit. Kellen Clemens is starting, and Washington will do everything they can to make his life miserable. Pick: Washington.

Seattle (pick) at Cleveland – When the game is a pick you just put your money on the better team. That is, unbelievably, Cleveland. Their offense has really found its stride, and they are playing like they finally believe in themselves – something they haven’t done since Bernie Kosar retired. Seattle is coming off a bye, but they have been decidedly lackluster all year, and I am not expecting to be impressed. Pick: Cleveland.

Jacksonville (+3) at New Orleans – The Jags have struggled defensively the last few weeks. New Orleans is experiencing an offensive renaissance. The game could become a shootout. If it does then I would bet on New Orleans every time, because I don’t like Quinn Gray’s chances of keeping up. Pick: New Orleans.

Dallas (-3) at Philadelphia – I’ve been taking the public teams all the way along today, so I might as well stick with it. At this spread I think Dallas is a steal. They have had a bye week to prepare for an inferior team. They have an offense that Philly won’t be able to keep up with. They did a decent job of containing Minnesota’s potent run game and should be able to do the same for Philadelphia. If Dallas is near their best then I don’t see how the Eagles compete. Pick: Dallas.

UPDATE: Sooo close. 3-1 on the games today, and a lousy half a point in the Washington game away from 4-0 and a perfect weekend. I think that the Dallas line was one of the softest ones of the season.

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