Here are some of the highlights of the three weeks of action:

Best game: Central Michigan and Purdue. My beloved Michigan thrashing Florida came a close second, but the Motor City Bowl gets the nod for the fireworks, the back and forth action, and the edge of the seat drama right up to the very end.

Best bet I made: I knew that Missouri (-3 vs. Arkansas) had a big edge, but I had no idea just how big of an edge it was. I felt good going into the game, and at no point did I have to break a sweat over the outcome.

Worst bet I made: I fell into the classic public trap with Oregon. They lost two quarterbacks, and I wrote them off entirely because of that. A deeper look would have identified their class advantage over South Florida, and the Bulls’ total inability to stop Jonathan Stewart. At the very least I wouldn’t have been enthusiastically in support of South Florida if I had slowed down and turned my brain on.

Most expected outcome: Rutgers over Ball State. This was a gigantic mismatch on paper, and it was a gigantic mismatch on the field. A gift from the bookmakers.

Least expected outcome: Michigan over Florida. I never would have guessed this outcome in a million years. I was positive that my team would be flat and, would at best, be able to keep it close. They did ten times better than that – they dominated the Gators and the game wasn’t near as close as the score. I truly have no idea how the Wolverines did it, and amidst my giddiness is a bit of frustration that the team hadn’t shown that kind of creativity and relentlessness before now.

Worst trend: I won just one of the six games before Christmas. I should have spent more time shopping. That means that I was a profitable 14-11-1 after the holiday.

Best trend: 5-0-1 in the first six games after Christmas returned me back to respectability and saved me from a big embarrassment.

Best overall performance by a team: Tulsa. there were much higher profile teams that played almost as well, but no team was more prepared for their game than Tulsa, and no team more thoroughly dominated their relatively evenly matched opponent. Tulsa was unbelievably focused and determined. Bowling Green never knew what hit them.

Worst overall performance by a team: Illinois. I took a risk that the Illini would play like the did against Ohio State and not ike they did against Michigan. they look poorly prepared, intimidated, and totally outmatched. Don’t get me wrong – the best team clearly won the Rose Bowl. Illinois had every chance to make it close, or at least respectable, though. They didn’t show up, and they should be ashamed.

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Thanks to LSU’s loss yesterday, this is the second straight year where we have a huge rivalry game to end the year with the number one ranking on the line for the winner. Kansas is the de facto number one already, and there is a good chance that Missouri would take the top spot with a convincing win. To make this game even more exciting (like it needs it), there are two incredibly explosive offenses, so we should see a shootout, the spread is at pick ‘em so the teams are very evenly matched, and it is at a neutral site so both teams will have all sorts of support in the crowd. I have gone back and forth on how this one will go a hundred times, and I really can’t decide. I think I will be cheering for Kansas, but either way it will be great to see two non-traditional powers duke it out for all the marbles. I likely won’t bet on the game, but I’ll be glued to my TV watching it.

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Three college football games intrigue me on Friday:

Central Michigan (-2.5) at Akron – The Akron offense has been struggling for the most part recently. Central Michigan never seems to falter offensively against teams of this caliber. I’ll take the explosive offense to win by less than a field goal. Pick: Central Michigan

Texas (-6) at Texas A&M – Texas has an outside shot of winning the Big 12 and earning the conference’s prime BCS spot. To do that they will  need Oklahoma to lose, and they will need to win themselves. That, coupled with seeking to avenge an A&M victory last year, should be motivation enough to win this game handily. A&M is slumping badly, and Texas has won five in a row. The Longhorns don’t always win by much, but they are clearly the better team here and should do just fine.  Pick: Texas

Boise State (+3) at Hawaii - I hate picking against an undefeated team, but the visitor is the better team here. The Broncos have been winning in dominating fashion, while Hawaii has been surviving one close call after another. It’s to their credit that they keep finding ways to win, but Boise State is by far the best team they have faced this year, and I’m not sure they will be able to come back again here. Taking the better team and the points is always a value play. Pick: Boise State

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USC (-3) at Arizona State – I think that it’s a bit of an insult that ASU is a home dog in this game given how the seasons have gone. More importantly, I think that ASU will view it as an insult. They are an explosive team who suddenly has the Pac-10 championship in their grasp despite their loss to Oregon. They will be motivated and they can stay close to USC. The home crowd will be very much into the game because this is the biggest home game the team has played since Jake Plummer was taking snaps. Pick: ASU.

UPDATE: I hate, hate, hate USC.

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Western Michigan (+14.5) at Iowa – Western Michigan is hit and miss and have not been a great team to bet on this year. that being said, I like them here. It comes down not to what they bring to the table, but rather that I have no faith in Iowa’s ability to beat anyone by more than two touchdowns right now. Pick: Western Michigan.

Iowa State (+27) at Kansas – I love the Jayhawks story this year, and I hope they run the table and really make a mess of the BCS. That being said, they are getting a ridiculous number of points here. Iowa State has won two in a row, covered four straight, and has regularly shown their ability to get up for a big game. This is the biggest of games – a chance to knock of the last major conference undefeated team. Kansas has covered every game this year, and I think that this is a case of the books trying to set a line high enough to get them beat. Pick: Iowa State.

Cal (-7) at Washington - The season has taken a horrible, horrible turn for Cal after such a great start. They are still a talented team, though, and I think that this is where they start to get it back on track. Two more wins gets them a decent bowl game. Washington has been terrible, and QB Jake Locker is likely out for this game. They have the look of a team that could quit, and I like Cal’s chances of winning by at least a touchdown. Pick: Cal.

NC State (+6.5) at Wake Forest - I love the way that the Wolfpack is playing lately. Tom O’Brien is a great coach, and his message is clearly catching on. They have won four in a row, covered five straight, and are playing tough, competitive ball. They are one win away from bowl eligibility, and I believe that that will be a huge motivator for the squad. Wake Forest has has two straight missteps, and they need to improve from where they have been to win this game. I think NC State is getting too many points here, and that makes this a betting opportunity Pick: NC State.

Boston College (+8.5) at Clemson – This line makes no sense to me. I know that the Eagles have lost two in a row, but they are a solid team with a talented QB, and they can be expected to bounce back. These two teams have played very tight games the last two weeks, and they are reasonably well matched. Clemson is on a tear over the last four, but they looked pretty mortal before that and could easily crash back to earth. I think that this game could go either way, but I will happily bet that BC can stay within a touchdown. Pick: Boston College.

UPDATE: First, Michigan sucks. What a disgusting effort. Or rather, lack of effort. So long, Lloyd Carr. It’s only sort of been good to know you. That lousy game was part of a pretty lousy day of football from a betting perspective. I was happy with how Western Michigan did, and I was glad to see Boston College win a tight one, but that was the end of the good news. Kansas is a very solid team – better than I have given them credit for. I am very much looking forward to their showdown with Missouri next Saturday night. Cal is just a mess – what a collapse. NC State didn’t show up either. That brings me to 2-3 on the day. Yuck. My first losing weekend since week 6.

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Oregon (-10) at Arizona – I’m going to play this game because I have a good streak going on Thursday nights, and to give you all something to read, but it’s one I would probably pass most days. On the surface, I really like Oregon here. The Wildcats only have an average defense, and they look better than they really are thanks to their two game winning streak. They have won two in a row by beating up on struggling teams – Washington and UCLA. In both cases they gave up more points than I would have liked. I think that the Ducks will use their offensive balance to score, and Arizona and their one-dimensional, pass-only offense will struggle to keep up. Oregon has everything to play for here – they want to stay in the number two spot for their shot at the national title, and they are avenging an embarrassing lost to Arizona last year. Oregon has a clear edge, and I am comfortable with this line.

One thing makes me very uneasy here. The line opened at 13, a large majority of bettors are on Oregon, yet the line is falling significantly and fairly quickly. That either means that the books aren’t afraid of Oregon action for some reason because they are confident in Arizona, or that the smart money is pouring in on Arizona. Either way, the size of the line drop given the situation is why I would normally pass this game. For fun, though, I’ll make a pick. Pick: Oregon.

UPDATE: What a disaster. Dennis Dixon went down early, Brady Leaf played like we have come to expect from the Leaf family, and yet another number two has gone down the drain. There clearly was a good reason to pass this game.

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Michigan (-2.5) at Wisconsin – I have a firm rule that I will never bet on my beloved Michigan Wolverines. Rules, of course, are made to be broken. I am a little concerned that Michigan won’t be at full effort because a win here doesn’t affect the team’s ability to win the conference if they beat Ohio State. Regardless, Michigan is on a roll, they are playing with focus and determination, and I don’t think that Lloyd Carr will let them slack off – this Ohio State game matters as much as any in a long time, and they need to stay sharp to win it. I wouldn’t be interested in betting on this game if the spread were a little wider, but I had set it in my mind at well over the key number of three, so the fact that my Wolverines only need to win by a field goal to pay off here gives the bet too much value to pass up. Pick: Michigan.

Virginia (+3.5) at Miami - I love this game. From a betting perspective, that is – I doubt it will be fascinating to watch. Virginia has been playing tough, determined football, and they stay close virtually every time out. They are in the unfamiliar position of being ranked, and I think that they want to stay there. They have much more to play for than Miami, they are a better team right now, and they are solid value at this price. Pick: Virginia.

Kentucky (-3.5) at Vanderbilt – The Wildcats are going through a rough stretch right now. After a very impressive start, Kentucky has lost three of four, and have had a word of troubles. They’ve had a week off to get their act together, and I look for them to finish strong down the stretch. Vanderbilt has a nice win against South Carolina on their record, but for the most part they just haven’t been good enough against top teams. I think that this game has the potential to get out of hand. Pick: Kentucky.

UPDATE: You’d never guess that the Big Ten is my favorite conference, because I sucked at picking them this weekend. Thankfully, I am good at picking conferences I don’t care about. Kentucky won a close game and covered, and Virginia laid a royal beatdown on Miami. That leaves me at an acceptable 3-2 for the weekend (including Thursday). I’m not making excuses, but I never would have been on Michigan if I had have made the choices late Saturday morning instead of Friday night, because the game was very different once Mike Hart wasn’t playing. Regardless, I made the pick and I will live with it.

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Louisville (+17) at West Virginia – I have been wildly disappointed by Louisville this year. I had high hopes, and they have repeatedly been dashed. I’m not nearly pessimistic enough about the team and what has occurred, though, to believe that 17 points against West Virginia is a fair spread. Louisville hasn’t lost by near this much this year, they are playing better in recent weeks, and they are going to be up for this game because it is a shot at a little redemption in a year that desperately needs some. West Virginia is very good, but the value is in Louisville’s pride. Pick: Louisville.

UPDATE: 38-31 West Virginia. I was worried at the start of the third quarter, but Louisville managed to stay close and cover this spread easily. Their season, at 5-5, is a disaster, but at least it’s not a total waste if it can make us some money.

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Kansas (-3.5) at Colorado – The Jayhawks are a huge surprise this year with their undefeated record. Colorado is much better than they are supposed to be, too. Colorado is coming off a bad loss, though, while Kansas has covered every time out. I expect them to do the same here. Pick: Kansas

Stanford (+14) at Arizona – Neither team is very good, but Stanford is playing with heart as of late. They had the huge upset over USC and then they hung tight with TCU. That’s two covers in a row. They obviously don’t mind going on the road. They marched into L.A. and took a win, so I can’t think of a good reason why they couldn’t do the same in Tucson. At the very least, they should be able to stay close. Pick: Stanford

Michigan State (+19) at Ohio State – The Buckeye defense is the best in the country, but Michigan State can score a lot of points. Purdue could too, and Ohio State shut them down. Michigan State has a much more balanced offense than Purdue does, though. I don’t have much doubt that Ohio State will win, but I am willing to bet that the Spartans can stay within 19. Pick: Michigan State

UPDATE: After a couple of rough weeks for me in college football, the betting gods were smiling down on me today. Kansas held on late to remain undefeated and cover, Stanford stayed hot with a big upset (at least according to the spread), and Michigan State faltered early but fought back late to stay close and cover easily. That 3 for 3. I’ll take that any day. Obviously.

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• The Trojans just can’t catch a break. USC’s charter plane plummeted during a thunderstorm on the way to South Bend. People were thrown from their seats, there was lots of screaming, and the pilot had to abort the initial landing attempt. Reports are that the team is shaken. I have no idea how to factor this into the handicapping, but thankfully I don’t have to worry about it – USC and Notre Dame are both so troubled that I wouldn’t touch the game with a ten foot pole.
• South Florida became the third straight number two ranked team to lose last night. I have no idea who will be at number two next week, but it might be worth throwing a few bucks on the moneyline of their opponents.
• After last night’s result the Big East is now a total mess. But then so is the SEC, Pac-10, Big Ten, and Big 12. Chaos is just par for the course this year, it seems.
• Mike Hart’s status is still unknown for the Illinois game Saturday night after an ankle injury in the Purdue game last week, according to Michigan coach Lloyd Carr. His teammates all say he will play, though, so I suspect he will be just fine. Or maybe I am just delusional because of my Michigan obsession.
• Tank Johnson has started practicing with his new team, the Cowboys. His suspension for being an idiot ends Nov. 11. He’ll make a big impact on a team that is already pretty good. If he can stay out of jail, that is.
• Jon Runyan, the right tackle for the Eagles who has started more than 180 straight games, suffered the greatest injury I have heard in awhile – he bruised his tailbone falling off the training table. He missed practice today, but is expected back on Sunday. He’s needed to keep Donovan McNabb comfortable, and the Eagles desperately need a win against the Bears, so his progress is worth watching.
• There are five unbeaten college teams remaining – Arizona State, Boston College, Hawaii, Kansas, and Ohio State. Only two, the Buckeyes and Jayhawks, play this weekend. What are the odds of three unbeaten teams all having the same bye week?

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