Harvard (+7) at Columbia - I like Columbia here for several reasons:

1. They beat Harvard by nine on the road two weeks ago.
2. They are an impressive 10-4 ATS, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight.
3. John Baumann, the Columbia forward who is the only real scoring threat on either team, is in fine form recently and he will be able to feast on the truly pathetic Harvard D.
4. I hate Tommy Amaker, blame him for ruining my beloved Michigan basketball program, and want to see him suffer as much as possible.
5. Neither team has anything left to play for, so the home crowd (such as it will be) will make a big difference.

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Davidson (-3) at Winthrop – Off the top I’ll say that I like Davidson here. The Wildcats are playing well, especially on the road, and they match up well. Winthrop is at the top of the Big South, but that doesn’t mean too much. Of course, Davidson has faced only marginally better competition in the Southern conference. It comes down, then, to three things;

1) Non-conference competition – Winthrop has played a few decent teams, and they have a win over Miami that looks better after the Hurricanes stunned Duke. They haven’t played nearly the level of competition that Davidson has, though. The non-conference schedule holds more importance in my mind when the teams don’t play regularly, and these two programs have never met.

2) Stephen Curry – He’s one of the best players in the country, and the Davidson guard could be the difference here. Winthrop can’t score at all, but Davidson’s defense is only average, so the Wildcats won’t be able to exploit that edge as much as they could. Winthrop plays solid defense, but they haven’t seen an offense as strong as Davidson’s, or a player as good as Curry. I’m not confident that Winthrop is ready for the step up in class.

3) ATS records – It’s not Winthrop’s fault that they have only played three games with a spread, but it makes it difficult to know how they perform when bettors’ money is on the line. It also means that it is harder for the books to set an accurate line. On the other hand, Davidson, at 15-9 ATS, is a proven performer that has been decently consistent for bettors.

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Xavier (+2.5) at Rhode Island - Xavier has struggled a bit lately, but they have still won seven in a row even if the margin hasn’t been as big as it could be. This is a battle for A-10 supremacy, and I truly believe that Xavier is the better squad. That makes them attractive here.

Austin Peay (+1) at Tennessee State – Austin Peay is the better team by a wide margin, and they are playing reasonably well. The edge isn’t huge here, but it is big enough to make it worth a play.

Texas A&M (+5) at Texas – Texas is playing as well as anyway and they are at home. Texas A&M is great when they are on their game, but they are wildly inconsistent. The value is on the Longhorns.

Gonzaga (-6.5) at San Diego - The Bulldogs aren’t getting a lot of press this year, but they are still headed to the tourney, and they have made a habit of covering huge spreads lately. I expect them to cover a much more modest one here as they ramp their game up in anticipation of the postseason.

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Bargains

I’m not saying that these teams are a lock to win or anything, but I think that their chances are better than their price:

Stanford (35/1) – The Cardinal are easiily the second best team in the Pac-10, and that’s a tough conference. This price doesn’t give them enough respect.

Purdue (100/1) – They swept Wisconsin and they beat Michigan State. This might not be the best year for the Big Ten, but leading that conference should always mean something, and this team is way tougher than this price would suggest.

Texas (35/1) – They couldn’t score worth a darn, yet they beat Kansas by playing defense. That’s a sign of a pretty good team.

Xavier (80/1) – At this price these boys are a very live longshot. They have done what is asked of them, and they have the experience of blowing a game against Ohio State last year to build on.

No Value

North Carolina (6/1) – There is a lot wrong with the way this team is playing, and it goes way beyond Ty Lawson’s injury. they are not as sharp as they should be, and they are underpriced as a result.

Georgetown (12/1) – Louisville had their way with the Hoyas in the second half, and other good teams could, too. This is a huge underlay.

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USC at Washington State – The Cougs are in a freefall, and USC has covered six of seven. The Trojans are solid on the road and could be tough here if the odds are attractive.

Northwestern at Michigan State – This one is a bit like watching a car accident. Northwestern is truly terrible, but I really want to see how much damage Michigan State can do in this case. The Spartans are a solid team, but I would love to see just a bit more from them, and this would be a good place to start.

Baylor at Kansas – The Bears have been a very pleasant surprise this year, and they should be fired up to prove that they are for real here. This will be a good test for both teams.

Evansville at Drake – Drake is a covering machine, but this will be a much bigger spread than they are used to, and Evansville played them tough last time the teams met. If the lline gets crazy, which it really could, there could be some value in the visitors.

Georgetown at Louisville – I love how Louisville is playing, and Georgetown is very solid. This should be a slugfest.

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Bradley (-1.5) at Wright State – Wright State is getting a lot of credit because they beat Butler last time out. They deserve some, but not much. They won, but Butler shot absolutely horribly and would win the game most days. Before that game, they had shown far less in losing to Valpo and getting blown out by Marist. Bradley has some nice wins and two solid losses to Vanderbilt and Michigan State. I think Bradley is the better team here, and I like the value since they only have to win by a basket. Pick: Bradley.

St. Mary’s (+4.5) at Southern Illinois – This is a very interesting game, with a surprising undefeated team with a huge win over Oregon visiting a talented but underachieving Southern Illinois team. The Salukis have lost three in a row and are shooting just horribly. St. Mary’s scores a pile, but they haven’t played anyone meaningful away from home. I think that this line is inflated a bit by the reputation the Salukis have built in recent years, and I am willing to take a chance that the Gaels are going to rise up ad keep it close here. They have to be incredibly frustrated that no one cares about anyone in their conference besides Gonzaga, and they are as good as they have ever been. Pick: St. Mary’s.

UPDATE: Bradley needed overtime, but they came through as I hoped. St. Mary’s, on the other hand, didn’t. You can’t win them all, but at least winning one of two isn’t too expensive.  Anti-climactic, but not expensive.

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And what a class it is. Whereas it was a story of two players with a few lesser lights last year, this year’s  group of freshmen is an embarrassment of riches. The way things have started out it seems as if there are six or eight freshmen who would be the best out there in most other years. In part we have David Stern and his prohibition of high school players in the draft for this freakish class, but it partly has to be just a fluke of genetics and timing, too.

Betting on the freshmen is a bit of a challenge. Their lack of experience can make them less consistent than more seasoned stars, and the betting public will flock to them as they put up big numbers and draw headlines. That can make it hard to find value. On the other hand, a solid young player can dramatically elevate a team ahead of expectations and create underlays for bettors. Davidson, for example, covered nine of their first 11 games and were 19-7-1 ATS overall in large part because it took a while for people to figure out just how good frosh stud Stephen Curry was. Like in most other betting situations, it is crucial to evaluate individual games for value instead of playing or avoiding the top freshmen as a rule.

If you haven’t tuned into college basketball yet you might not be tuned into the best freshmen out there. Here, in alphabetical order, are my top ten youngsters:

Jerryd Bayless, Arizona – Arizona had at least two big problems last year – they were lousy at outside shooting, and they struggled on defense. This shooting guard helps on both fronts. He’s as smooth as silk from long range, and he is probably the best defender on the team without even having played a game.

Michael Beasley, Kansas State  – If you haven’t heard of Beasley, there is only one thing you need to know about him – in his first game he broke the all-time Big 12 single game record with 24 rebounds. He’s averaging 31 points a game on top of that. This kid is disgustingly good.

Corey Fisher, Villanova – How can you not be excited about the arrival of a lightning fast, athletic guard at Villanova. The place is a guard factory and coach Jay Wright is a master at both recruiting guards and using them to maximum potential. Fisher will be slowed at the start with knee tendinitis, but will get worked into a three guard backcourt as soon as he is healthy. I expect fireworks when that happens.

Eric Gordon, Indiana – I’m optimistic that we are on the verge of a renaissance for the Big Ten, and guys like Gordon will be at the forefront of it. He’s a shooting guard who can score in his sleep. If I had to pick a favorite to lead the conference in scoring there wouldn’t be too many players, if any, ahead of Gordon. He started it off right with 33 points in his debut.

Kosta Koufos, Ohio State – There is nothing worse than having to follow in the shoes of a legend, so being the next Buckeye center is unenviable. Koufos wasn’t getting a ton of attention at the end of the last high school season, but he was amazing playing for Greece at the U-18 European Championships this summer. Unlike most of the players on this list who have obvious and immediate talent, Koufos will be exciting to watch more to see if he can realize his potential. 18 points and eight boards in his first game was a promising start.

Kevin Love, UCLA – UCLA has made it to the Final Four two years in a row despite having Richard Mbah a Moute playing in a power forward role that isn’t his best spot. Imagine how good they can be now that they have Love, a prototype power forward to fill the position. Mbah a Moute can move over to his preferred spot, and Love can do what he does so well. He’s averaging a double double in two games.

O.J. Mayo, USC – I’m so sick of hearing about Mayo, and he hasn’t even played a game yet. He’s been the talk of basketball circles for years, and is seen as a lock. His first game was solid, as he put up 32 points to lead the way for the Trojans. It’s got to be more than a bit of a concern, though, that despite that effort his team lost by 15 to lowly Mercer.

Patrick Patterson, Kentucky – Kentucky got off to a rough start by losing to Gardner-Webb in their second game, but it was not Patterson’s fault. The forward had 12 points and 12 rebounds in the game, and he blocked two shots as well. It’s a pretty good start, and Patterson will be given every chance to shine this year because his team is much weaker up front than they are in the back court.

Derrick Rose, Memphis – Here’s my personal favorite. Memphis has as many good guards as any team in the country, and returns the team tat was so good last year, but Rose is so good that he will be the starting point guard from the start. He has averaged 19 points per game while leading his team to their first two wins.

Kyle Singler, Duke – I absolutely hate Duke, so a guy has to be pretty good before I am willing to acknowledge him. He’s pretty much what you would expect from Coach K – a relentless white guy who is deadly from the perimeter. Unlike some of Duke’s other players of that ilk, though, Singler is also a fine shot blocker and an excellent defender.

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Brown (+13.5) at Michigan – The John Beilein era at Michigan started strong, and I expect that to continue. Michigan played with some solid tempo in their opening game, and I don’t expect Brown to be able to match it. Pick: Michigan.

Pepperdine (+9) vs. Western Michigan – I expect pretty good things for Western Michigan this year. A trip to the dance at the end of the year wouldn’t surprise me. That being said I think that this line is a bit optimistic. Pepperdine likes to run, and that up-tempo approach should be enough to keep it close. That means that there is value in the Waves. Pick: Pepperdine.

Nevada (+1) at Central Florida – Nevada has to reinvent themselves without Nick Fazekas. Marcelus Kemp is still there to keep things going, though. Central Florida is a team on the rise but I think that Nevada will be too much to handle here. Pick: Nevada.

UPDATE: 2-1 on the day, with a big win by Michigan and a cover by Pepperdine offsetting a loss by Nevada in a close game. That’s an acceptable 3-2 start to the season.

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William & Mary (+22.5) at Georgetown – This is the first game for both teams, and the time the programs have ever met. Georgetown wants to win it all this year, and they will be looking to make a statement to get it going. Georgetown is better at every position and, if they want to, should run away with it. I’m betting that they will want to. Pick: Georgetown.

UPDATE: As I hoped, Georgetown pulled away in the second half. Unfortunately, they waited too long to do it and only won by 15. So much for an undefeated betting season in college basketball.

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Maine (+1.5) versus Tennessee-Martin – Both teams lost yesterday in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. Maine lost 44-42 to Richmond, and Tennessee Martin lost 102-71 to Memphis. Tenn-Martin is coming back from a rough season, but they carried themselves well in the opener. They scored an impressive 71 points, they had the lead well into the first half, and they were surprisingly solid. Maine lost a close game, but it was very ugly. They turned the ball over 28 times, and three starters didn’t score. They looked very rusty, and I don’t trust that they will have been able to shake that rust off already. Pick: Tenn-Martin.

UPDATE: 66-62 Tennessee-Martin. Maine took an early lead, they traded back and forth for a while, and it didn’t look good until Tenn-Martin got hot down the stretch and drained a couple of threes in the last minute to put it away. A great start to a long and exciting college season.

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