Oakland (-11) at Green Bay – I can’t believe I am actually going to take the Raiders, but it’s true. I think that 11 points is too many here. The Raiders have won two in a row, and they are running the ball very well. Until he proves me wrong I can’t believe that Favre is 100% healthy after his injury last week. I think that the Packers will win, but this is too many points. Pick: Oakland.

Tampa Bay (-3) at Houston – The Texans are not in a good place right now. They have lost two in a row, and they haven’t looked good doing it. Tampa Bay has had every reason to struggle this year, but they keep finding ways to win. Jeff Garcia may be back in action this week, and even if he isn’t Tampa Bay finds ways to get by. They are hungry and eager to put their division out of the grasp of others, and that should be enough to cover here. Pick: Tampa Bay.

Minnesota (-8.5) at San Francisco - I have a soft spot for San Francisco, but they are in a terrible spot here. Minnesota is incredible on the ground, and they have more confidence offensively than almost any team in the league right now. The Niners are weak on defense, and essentially incompetent against the run. Minnesota’s sprint to the playoffs continues here in a big way. Pick: Minnesota.

Cleveland (-3) at New York Jets – Cleveland has to be upset, because Kellen Winslow was the victim of a bad call that cost them the game last week. They are a proud team, and they are still very much in the playoff hunt. They need a win here, and I expect them to come out very hungry and feast on a vulnerable New York team. Pick: Cleveland.

San Diego (pick) at Tennessee – I have no faith in the Titans. San Diego is suddenly playing with confidence and passion that was lacking early. The combination of those two factors make the Chargers very attractive at this price. Pick: San Diego.

UPDATE: Nice wins by Minnesota, Cleveland and San Diego overcame incompetent performances by Tampa Bay and Oakland to move me to 3-2 on the weekend. I’ll certainly take that.

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Houston (+3) at Cleveland – Cleveland has won four in a row at home. Houston has won two straight, but I’m not convinced that they are for real. They’ve matched up situationally well the last two games, and I am not confident that they will again here. This game opened with a spread of six. At that level I wasn’t interested, but when it dropped to the key number of three it definitely got my attention. Three points is essentially home field advantage in the NFL, so this line says that these two teams are essentially equal. I don’t think that that gives Cleveland enough credit. Pick: Cleveland

 Saskatchewan Roughriders (-11) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers – The Grey Cup, for the uninitiated, is the championship of the Canadian Football League. It’s a big deal in my country, and is especially big this year because these two teams have by far the most rabid fans in the country. Saskatchewan comes into the final game off of a huge and somewhat shocking win over B.C., the best team in the league over the regular season. They are playing extremely well and have a clear edge. Winnipeg would have been in a bit of trouble here at their best because the Eastern conference was the weaker of the two. They are far from their best, though – their star quarterback broke his wrist in the Eastern final and they are forced to start Ryan Dinwiddie, who the hardcore among you will recognize as a former Boise State starter. Saskatchewan’s defense smothered the powerful B.C. offense, and I strongly suspect that they will be able to do the same against the inexperienced Dinwiddie. The line seems high for a championship game, but I still believe that there is value in the favorites. Pick: Saskatchewan.

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New York Giants (-3) at Detroit – I know I said I was done with betting on the Lions, but I just can’t quit them. I don’t trust the Giants at all, and Detroit has been great at home, So the value lies in the Lions and the points. Pick: Detroit.

St. Louis (-3) at San Francisco – The Rams looked pretty good in winning last week, and I like their chances to do it again here. The Niners are in a deep, ugly funk. Pick: St. Louis.

Cleveland (-2.5) at Baltimore – This is an easy game for me to pick. I love teams that play with heart. Cleveland is playing with more than anyone right now, while Baltimore isn’t showing any of the heart that has made me like them for so long. Cleveland is in a good spot here. Pick: Cleveland.

UPDATE: 2-1 on the day. Cleveland and St. Louis didn’t win pretty, but at least they won and covered. Detroit, on the other hand, was a frustrating mess. I guess I should have meant it when I said I was done with them.

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Washington (-3.5) at New York Jets – Washington was embarrassed by New England last week. I suspect that their pride will lead them to take out their frustrations on a far inferior New York team. The last time they had a bad loss, to the Giants, they came back the next week and crushed Detroit. Kellen Clemens is starting, and Washington will do everything they can to make his life miserable. Pick: Washington.

Seattle (pick) at Cleveland – When the game is a pick you just put your money on the better team. That is, unbelievably, Cleveland. Their offense has really found its stride, and they are playing like they finally believe in themselves – something they haven’t done since Bernie Kosar retired. Seattle is coming off a bye, but they have been decidedly lackluster all year, and I am not expecting to be impressed. Pick: Cleveland.

Jacksonville (+3) at New Orleans – The Jags have struggled defensively the last few weeks. New Orleans is experiencing an offensive renaissance. The game could become a shootout. If it does then I would bet on New Orleans every time, because I don’t like Quinn Gray’s chances of keeping up. Pick: New Orleans.

Dallas (-3) at Philadelphia – I’ve been taking the public teams all the way along today, so I might as well stick with it. At this spread I think Dallas is a steal. They have had a bye week to prepare for an inferior team. They have an offense that Philly won’t be able to keep up with. They did a decent job of containing Minnesota’s potent run game and should be able to do the same for Philadelphia. If Dallas is near their best then I don’t see how the Eagles compete. Pick: Dallas.

UPDATE: Sooo close. 3-1 on the games today, and a lousy half a point in the Washington game away from 4-0 and a perfect weekend. I think that the Dallas line was one of the softest ones of the season.

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