Central Michigan (-3) vs. Miami of Ohio – The MAC Championship won’t be the highest profile game of the day, but it should be a good one. I really like the Central Michigan offense. Dan LeFevour is a pleasure to watch at QB, and the unit is piling up the points lately. The defense can’t stop anything, but I’m not convinced that Miami has the offense to keep pace if this becomes a shootout. On a neutral field that should have a strong Central Michigan presence I like the Chippewas here. Pick: Central Michigan.

Tennessee (+7.5) vs. LSU – There are a lot of reasons in my mind to like Tennessee here. LSU lost some swagger, and their shot at a title, last weekend. Their coach is on the way out the door. Tennessee is playing well over the last month, and should have a huge boost coming off an emotional win against Kentucky last year. Tennessee QB Matt Flynn is questionable, and probably won’t be at his best even if he does play. I’m not confident that Tennessee will win, but I do like their chances of of keeping it close, and getting that extra half point on top of the touchdown makes them good value. Pick: Tennessee.

Missouri (+3) vs. Oklahoma - The top ranked team in the country is an underdog at a neutral site – this truly is a bizarre season. Missouri is in top form, they have the ultimate motivation to play for, and they showed last week that they can handle the pressure of huge games. Oklahoma struggled badly against Texas Tech, and the Mizzou offense is similarly elusive and explosive. It would be entirely different if the Tigers were heavily favored, but taking them and the points seems like a pretty solid idea. Pick: Missouri.

Arizona (+6.5) at Arizona State - USC will probably have the Pac-10 title wrapped up by the time this game kicks off, but I don’t expect that to diminish the effort the Sun Devils will show here.  For one, this is a huge rivalry for the team, and a chance to redeem themselves after a frustrating loss to USC. They also have a chance to play in a very big bowl game, and that would be a great way to cap a an outstanding an unexpected first year under Dennis Erickson. This line is as low as it is because Arizona has won three straight, but they have not been against good competition, so I am not buying it. Pick: Arizona State.

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Oregon (-10) at Arizona – I’m going to play this game because I have a good streak going on Thursday nights, and to give you all something to read, but it’s one I would probably pass most days. On the surface, I really like Oregon here. The Wildcats only have an average defense, and they look better than they really are thanks to their two game winning streak. They have won two in a row by beating up on struggling teams – Washington and UCLA. In both cases they gave up more points than I would have liked. I think that the Ducks will use their offensive balance to score, and Arizona and their one-dimensional, pass-only offense will struggle to keep up. Oregon has everything to play for here – they want to stay in the number two spot for their shot at the national title, and they are avenging an embarrassing lost to Arizona last year. Oregon has a clear edge, and I am comfortable with this line.

One thing makes me very uneasy here. The line opened at 13, a large majority of bettors are on Oregon, yet the line is falling significantly and fairly quickly. That either means that the books aren’t afraid of Oregon action for some reason because they are confident in Arizona, or that the smart money is pouring in on Arizona. Either way, the size of the line drop given the situation is why I would normally pass this game. For fun, though, I’ll make a pick. Pick: Oregon.

UPDATE: What a disaster. Dennis Dixon went down early, Brady Leaf played like we have come to expect from the Leaf family, and yet another number two has gone down the drain. There clearly was a good reason to pass this game.

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Detroit (+1.5) at Arizona – Try as I might, I can’t come up with a particularly good reason not to take a shot on Detroit here. This line really caught me off guard. I’m going to quit trying to over think it and just put my money down. Pick: Detroit.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at San Diego – I think that there is a ton of value in Indianapolis. They are going to be pissed off after their loss last weekend, and they will take it out on the Chargers. San Diego looked dismal last week, and they have only beaten bad teams this year. Indy has some injury issues, but I don’t think they are serious enough to overcome the advantage that Indy has in how they have been playing. Pick: Indianapolis.

Buffalo (-2.5) at Miami - I love how Buffalo has played the last three games. I don’t love anything about Miami. They are ravaged by injuries, they have nothing to play for, and they see to be self-destructing under the watch of a terrible coaching staff. Buffalo is playing like they believe in what they are doing, and I am a sucker for a plucky upstart. That makes the Bills the pick. Pick: Buffalo.

UPDATE: A very frustrating Sunday. Buffalo and Dallas did just what I hoped, but nothing else went right. Washington collapsed badly at the end, Detroit just forgot to show up, and Indy lost one of the most disgustingly bad football games in recent memory. 2-3 and the first losing weekend in the NFL in a long time.

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Kansas (-3.5) at Colorado – The Jayhawks are a huge surprise this year with their undefeated record. Colorado is much better than they are supposed to be, too. Colorado is coming off a bad loss, though, while Kansas has covered every time out. I expect them to do the same here. Pick: Kansas

Stanford (+14) at Arizona – Neither team is very good, but Stanford is playing with heart as of late. They had the huge upset over USC and then they hung tight with TCU. That’s two covers in a row. They obviously don’t mind going on the road. They marched into L.A. and took a win, so I can’t think of a good reason why they couldn’t do the same in Tucson. At the very least, they should be able to stay close. Pick: Stanford

Michigan State (+19) at Ohio State – The Buckeye defense is the best in the country, but Michigan State can score a lot of points. Purdue could too, and Ohio State shut them down. Michigan State has a much more balanced offense than Purdue does, though. I don’t have much doubt that Ohio State will win, but I am willing to bet that the Spartans can stay within 19. Pick: Michigan State

UPDATE: After a couple of rough weeks for me in college football, the betting gods were smiling down on me today. Kansas held on late to remain undefeated and cover, Stanford stayed hot with a big upset (at least according to the spread), and Michigan State faltered early but fought back late to stay close and cover easily. That 3 for 3. I’ll take that any day. Obviously.

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