Taking Stock - Rehashing the Breeders’ Cup
The Breeders’ Cup is now five days gone, and it’s time to revisit my selections. I don’t need to see how I did (I know that intimately by now), but rather how I feel about my picks and the process behind them. The BC is a major crapshoot, so even the best handicapping in the world isn’t always going to be effective and profitable. You need to make sure that you make decisions that you would be happy to make again.First, some background. My betting strategy was ultimately built around pursuing exotics based on my top three horses in each race. In addition to that, though, I picked one horse for each race as my top horse. This was more of an intellectual exercise than a betting strategy. The top horse was a combination of winning potential and betting value on the morning line. Here’s who they were and how they went:
Filly and Mare Sprint - My Pick: Maryfield. Winner: Maryfield. I’ll never complain about hitting an $18.00 winner. The race set up almost exactly as I hoped it would. Dream Rush and La Traviata tried to kill each other on the front with a ridiculous pace, and that left it for the closers to pick up the scraps. Maryfield was the closer I liked, and she did me proud.
Juvenile Turf - My Pick: Gio Ponti. Winner: Nownownow. I spent about two seconds on this race, and really didn’t care that I didn’t win. The horses were from all over the place, the surface was terrible, and the experience of the runners was wildly varied. A handicapping nightmare. I had no emotional buy-in with my pick, and passed on the race.
Dirt Mile - My Pick: Gottcha Gold. Winner: Corinthian. I have no regrets here. Gottcha Gold got the lead and hung on nicely to the end in a Hard Spun-like effort. He was clearly the second best and would have won if it weren’t for Corinthian. I have thoroughly enjoyed Corinthian in his career and have won on him in the past. Unfortunately, I have lost on him more. He’s a hit or miss horse, and I bet that he would miss here.
Juvenile Fillies - My Pick: Izarra. Winner: Indian Blessing. I stayed away from the favorite (the winner) because I was concerned by the fact that, despite winning, she had slowed badly down the stretch in her last effort. I figured that that would set the race up well for Izarra. She was a powerful closer, and though she hadn’t run on dirt before I hoped that she would take to it well. Despite the fact that the opportunity for a strong close was present (Indian Blessing did the last two furlongs in a very pedestrian 27.1 seconds), Izarra didn’t fire and ended up tenth. Whether it was the dirt or the weather, it just wasn’t her day.
Juvenile - My Pick: Pyro. Winner: War Pass. I am totally happy with this pick. Pyro had finished an impressive second to War Pass in the Champagne, and I was confident that those were the two best horses in this field. I liked both, but I went with Pyro based on his price and on the fact that I though War pass may have been burned out by a pace challenge. That pace challenge didn’t materialize, War Pass was able to run his race, and my horse was clearly second best. A fine result in a race this tough to call.
Filly and Mare Turf - My Pick: Passage of Time. Winner: Lahudood. Not a lot to complain about here, as my three horses made up the trifecta. I took a shot on Passage of Time because she had solid form and because her trainer was emphatic throughout the week that she would be happier the softer the ground got. I stuck with the pick, but would have moved away from it near post time if I could have because passage of Time was made the favorite at an underlay, while Honey Ryder and Lahudood were both attractive overlays. Excluding the odds, though, I’m happy with my logic.
Sprint - My Pick: Smokey Stover. Winner: Midnight Lute. My horse didn’t fire at all and was eased before the finish line. Clearly the surface was a disaster. Though there’s nothing I could do about that, I do have to admit one big error here. I had completely ruled out Midnight Lute, not even including him in my trifecta. I didn’t believe in his ability to replicate his monster performance in the Forego, and I thought there was absolutely no value in the price. His move down the stretch was truly monstrous, and I didn’t give him nearly enough credit.
Mile - My Pick: Nobiz Like Shobiz. Winner: Kip Deville. This is another race where, like the F&M Turf, I made a pick based on morning lines that I wouldn’t have made at the post time odds. I didn’t believe that Nobiz was the best horse in the field currently, but I love his potential, and I thought that he was a nice overlay at 8-1. When he went off at less than 4-1 I felt a sense of inevitable doom. I have nothing to complain about with his effort - he ran a career best Beyer and finished fourth. I just wouldn’t have made the pick if he’d been 4-1 in the morning line. Of course, it all doesn’t matter, because Kip Deville would never have been my pick anyway, and I thought that the favorite, Excellent Art, who finished second, was a bet-against. This just wasn’t my race.
Distaff - My Pick: Lady Joanne. Winner: Ginger Punch. If I could have found an eight sided coin I would have used it to handicap this race. There were eight horses in the 12 horse field that I liked for one reason or another, and I found it very difficult to separate any of them. In the end I went with Lady Joanne because she had a nice price and she has consistently been in the money. She finished fourth. The top six horses were all in my eight, so I really can’t complain too much.
Turf - My Pick: Dylan Thomas. Winner: English Channel. I messed this one up (Dylan Thomas was fifth), but I didn’t know how to get away from it. Over the week before I had repeatedly written that I thought that Dylan Thomas was primed to be beaten because of the challenge of coming off the Arc to win here. Despite that, I ended up going with him. In part I got taken in by the hype, and in part I just couldn’t find a better option. I discredited English Channel because of the ground, and thought that Dylan Thomas would handle the ground because he won over a soft ground at the Arc (upon further research after the race I found that the ground at the Arc was soft but drying - oops). Unwilling to back English Channel at his price, there was no one else that I felt good enough about, so I went with Dylan Thomas pretty much by default. Certainly the pick I feel the least proud of.
Classic - My Pick: Curlin. Winner: Curlin. I made my pick for the BC Classic on Preakness day when Curlin beat Street Sense, and I blindly stuck with it since then. I love this horse and was thrilled with his performance. I looked very closely at this race, but it was only to pick my other two horses, because there was virtually nothing that would have moved me off my top pick.
Overall - My top picks in the 11 races ended up winning twice and finishing second twice. $2 win bets on all 11 horses would have netted a profit of $6.80 and an ROI of 30.9%. $2 place bets on all 11 races were also profitable, with a net of $3 and an ROI of 13.6%. It wasn’t a dominating weekend, but it was a reasonably successful one and I can’t be too disappointed given the conditions. Most importantly, there is only one pick - Dylan Thomas - that I wish I had to do all over again. That makes for a good day, and it means I can’t wait until next year.
Tags: Breeders-Cup, SelectionsRelated Stories
POSTED IN: Horse Racing, Selections
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