Public panic pays off
There was a truly fascinating situation involving Cleveland yesterday. On Sunday night the Cavs were crushed by the Nuggets in Denver. They lost by 30, and it wasn’t that close. In an ugly quirk of scheduling the team played the next night in Orlando. They settled onto their plane for the long trip but were grounded by mechanical troubles. That meant they wouldn’t be able to leave until the next morning, and they wouldn’t be able to arrive in Orlando until mid-afternoon. The game started at 7:00.
The public noticed this news and they panicked. The line was sitting with Orlando as four point favorites. As soon as the plane woes emerged the line jumped to 8.5 points almost immediately, and to 9.5 points by tip-off.
Why did the line move so much? The public figured that the team would be affected negatively (obviously quite affected) by the hassle and confusion of the travel problems, and that they wouldn’t be properly prepared. While that may be the case if you or I was traveling, it just doesn’t make a lot of sense here. These guys travel for a living, and they do it on planes designed for their every comfort. It’s not like they had to ride to Orlando squished into a school bus. This kind of a change would be nothing more than a mild annoyance for an NBA squad. It might make me consider whether I wanted to back the Cavs if the line didn’t move and their perceived edge was slight, but it certainly isn’t worth 5.5 points. That meant that the Cavs, a team that is playing well anyway (16 wins in 22 games before Orlando), suddenly had a ton of value fall into their laps.
In the end the Cavs rebounded nicely and had a nice seven point win against Orlando.
The lesson here is pretty clear - if you see a sudden and bizarre line movement, take the time to explain why it happened. If the logic doesn’t make sense you probably have a prime betting opportunity.
Tags: cleveland cavaliers, NBA, orlando magicRelated Stories
POSTED IN: NBA
3 opinions for Public panic pays off
Educated Bet
Feb 13, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Lebron , should skip more naps !
Let me know if you are interested i exchanging links.
pEACE…iRON mIKE
T.O.
Feb 13, 2008 at 12:56 pm
I added you to my blogroll this morning I should have done it earlier. Thanks for being such a frequent visitor.
Danny
Aug 29, 2008 at 4:47 am
TO… It’s about that time… R u Ready!! U may not remember me, but we corresponded a few times about the patriots and our philosophies on spread streaks!!!! I’m ready for a wildly successful football season!! I know u post a lot of picks on this site but I can’t seem to find them…. Who do u like this weekend?? I LOVE UTAH @ +3.5.. But the game that jumps off the page at me that no one is talkin about is Fla Atlantic @ texas. Let me know what u think??!!!!
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