February 8th, 2008
Now that football is over here, our focus here will shift in other directions. We’ll hit lots of sports along the way, but college basketball will likely get the most attention over the next six weeks or so.
Which brings me to an announcement of great sadness - coach John Brady has been fired by LSU. As a sports bettor that is perhaps the saddest news of the year (And I mean the whole year, even if it is only February). Brady was probably the worst recruiter on the planet, and he was only barely better as a coach. His team was a disaster, and betting against them had been pretty much a lock for much of the year. Now they may actually bring in someone who is competent and can have his team prepared to play. That’s tragic. You’ll be missed, John. Terribly missed.
Tags: john brady, lsu
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By T.O. -- 1 comment
February 7th, 2008
If you tried to come to the site in the last 24 hours you probably didn’t succeed. Apparently the computer gods weren’t very happy with the Super Bowl, either, and they figured that a service outage would be the best way to show their disgust.
Things should be smoother going forward. Thanks for your patience.
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By T.O. -- 0 comments
February 5th, 2008
This is a column I do every week for Doc’s Sports. You can, and should, check them out at docsports.com for all sorts of information, insights and picks. I do a lot of writing for them.
A - Aggies. It’s been a pretty great 10 days for Texas A&M, with big conference wins over Oklahoma State, Texas and Oklahoma. The 17-point victory over Texas was particularly striking. The only problem is that the team preceded this nice string with three conferences losses in a row, and they weren’t close in two of them. This is one of those teams I find so hard to figure out - which team is the real one, and which one can we expect to show up in any given game?
B - Brock Lesnar. Well that was disappointing. It turns out that a couple of years of being a fake fighter does nothing to prepare you to be a real one. Lesnar made his much-hyped UFC debut on Saturday night against Frank Mir. For a brief while Lesnar looked okay. But then 90 seconds passed and it was all over. Lesnar tapped out to Mir, not exactly the toughest heavyweight in the UFC stable these days. I hope Dana White hadn’t pinned the hopes for the future on Lesnar, because he has a lot of work still to do. To say the least.
C - Crennel, Romeo. For a while it looked like they might screw it up, but the Browns did the right thing by bringing their coach back for two more years. Crennel managed something that hasn’t happened much in Cleveland for a decade or so - his team believed in themselves and were tough to play against. The defense was a disaster, but he can work on that, and he has much more to build on than he did when he arrived in town.
D - Ducks, Anaheim. The defending Stanley Cup champs keep getting better piece by piece. First, Scott Niedermayer, the best defenseman in the league for my money, ended a brief retirement and returned to action. Now he has been joined by Teemu Selanne, the Finnish sniper who took the first half of the season off. They need the help, too - they have lost six in a row and have just five goals over that stretch.
E - Eli Manning. Sure, you got a Super Bowl and your MVP. Congrats. That doesn’t mean I like you. In fact, I still find you pretty unimpressive. You’re a decent quarterback, and by that I mean better than 20 starters in the league, but you still haven’t done anything to make me believe that you are a legitimate star over the long term, and I can’t wait to feast on the lines that are inflated by the betting fools next season who think that you are the second coming of your brother. I don’t like him, either, but you can’t carry his jock strap.
F - FBR Open. A rock concert atmosphere hits the PGA tour ever year in Scottsdale, and it looks like one heck of a party. Despite unseasonably cool weather and the Super Bowl being in town, the crowds poured in the gates, and they were treated to a heck of a finish. J.B. Holmes birdied 18, and then did it again in a playoff to hold off Phil Mickelson and take home the title. Holmes may not be a household name, but he sure loves Arizona - this is his second win in three years at the FBR. It helps that Tiger is in Dubai at this time every year.
G - Gonzaga. The Bulldogs aren’t the team that they have been in recent years, but they reminded me yet again why I love college basketball on Saturday. I meant just to have their game at Santa Clara on in the background as I did some work, but I ended up being glued to the sloppy but totally captivating action. After trailing all day, they tied it up with 0.3 seconds left thanks to free throws from perhaps the most brainless foul I have ever seen a player commit. They got ahead in overtime, couldn’t hold, and had to do it all over again. They finally pulled away and won by five, but not before my emotions had been taken on a roller coaster like only college hoops can provide. And I don’t even care about either team.
H - Hughes, B. Wayne. You might not know the name, but the thoroughbred world does. He’s a ridiculously wealthy horse owner, and he is one happy dude this weekend. Crown of Thorns, a three year old stretching out around two turns for the first time in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Saturday, made it look easy in winning, and he placed himself directly on the road to the Derby. He looked like he might get stuck on the rail, but when he found space he pounced and ran away.
I - Incredible. On a list of things I never thought I would see in sports, a second go-round in the relationship between Chris Webber and Don Nelson would have been right up there near the top. The first time they were together it was a disaster. Both guys are much older now, though, and Webber is much more aware of his role, so it could work. If he can fit into the Warriors’ lineup without disrupting all that is already working for the hot team then he could be a huge addition down the stretch for a team that could do some playoff damage.
J - Johan Santana. I wouldn’t have believed it, but apparently a guy who will make more than $20 million a year can be a bargain. The Mets won the long and drawn out Santana Derby, and they had to send surprisingly little to Minnesota in the end to do it. Santana is pricey, but he is going to an easier league, he’ll be in a pitcher’s paradise at Shea, and he should be able to truly dominate. It’s a good time to be a Mets fan, I would guess. As a bettor, though, you can throw away any hope of value every fifth day.
K - Kansas State. If I was a fan of the Wildcats I would be slitting my wrists right about now. They had a historic win on Wednesday, knocking rival Kansas from the ranks of the undefeated, and ending a home losing streak against the Jayhawks that stretched back a quarter century. But then they came out on Saturday and lost to Missouri. Yes, that is the same Missouri squad that suspended five players indefinitely this week after they were in a brawl at a nightclub.
L - Lakers. Wow. that’s really all their is to say about that. They get an all-star caliber player in Pau Gasol, and all they had to give up was spare parts and some draft picks which, thanks to Gasol, won’t be very high. I haven’t understood how the Lakers have done it so far, but all I know now is that they are way up among the elite of the league now, and that front court is really going to be something to watch when Andrew Bynum returns to action.
M - Mountaineers. It was a humiliating Wednesday night at home for West Virginia. They had what should have been an easy game against coach Bob Huggins old team from Cincinnati. They were favored by 13.5, but you’d have never guessed it from the scoreboard - they lost by 23. No matter how bad it gets for the team, though, they can rest assured that things are worse for former coach John Beilein. His Michigan team has won just once in their last 11, and look as bad as a basketball team can look.
N - Notre Dame. That scent you can catch in the air is the smell of desperation, and it is coming from South Bend. The Irish added a pretty high profile piece to their coaching staff this week. Jon Tenuta, the defensive coordinator at Georgia Tech, is the new assistant head coach for defense at Notre Dame. Both sides of the ball were a total disaster last year, and Charlie Weis seems to be better at recruiting than coaching, so the move makes sense for a program desperate for a return to respectability.
O - Ovechkin, Alexander. Who says Russian hockey players are soft? Ovechkin had a tough night on Thursday against Montreal. He broke his nose when he was pounded into the boards, and he needed stitches in his lip after someone tried to make him eat the puck. All he did in response was score four goals, including the overtime winner, and added an assist as the Caps beat the Habs, 5-4. Washington still can’t be mistaken for a good team, but they have won 10 of 15, and they are at .500 on the season - a level they haven’t been at this late for a while.
P - Patriots. I have just two questions for this team. First, how in the world did you manage to win 18 straight games when you apparently have no ability to tackle? There were three of you with your hands on Manning with the game on the line and he got away. Come on, now. Second, you had two weeks to prepare for this game. Didn’t you consider even for a second that they might rush Brady hard on every single snap? I’m no hoodie-wearing genius or anything, but I might have planned for that or something.
Q - Quit it. Does Arlen Specter really have nothing more important to worry about than Spy-gate? If I lived in Pennsylvania I would really wonder why my senator is spending his time worrying about why some essentially meaningless tapes were erased instead of focusing on, I don’t know, say education, war, health care, or any one of a million other things that actually matter even a little bit. I could feel my brain cells taking their own lives as I listened to Specter speak.
R - Redskins. Washington has made a total mess of their coaching search, but at least they are showing signs that they may get it right. Or, if nothing else, they at least paid attention during the Super Bowl. The word is that they will interview Giants’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo on Tuesday, and they have decided against their original plan of also interviewing New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Those two coaches played a high profile chess match on Sunday and Spagnuolo scored an impressive checkmate.
S - Sutton, Eddie. The veteran coach got what he came out for - his 800th win. That’s why he came out of retirement to take over San Francisco, and it is unquestionably an impressive total, but I can’t help wondering if it really matters. Nobody can believe he is at San Francisco for the long term, or for any reason other than the record, and the whole thing seems hollow given the reason for his retirement just short of the mark in the first place. In this case maybe sleeping dogs should have stayed lying down.
T - Tony Parker. Mr. Longoria will be spending a lot of time with his hot wife for now, because he is sidelined with heel spurs. He’s been shelved, and there is no timeline for his return. Needless to say, this is not good news for the Spurs. They signed Damon Stoudamire to help fill the gap, but Mighty Mouse is a big step down from the Frenchman. Still, no need to panic - they went in to Phoenix without Parker and won by three as 7.5 point underdogs.
U - Ugly. The Top 25 was not particularly impressive in Saturday action. Nineteen ranked teams played unranked opponents on the day. Five of those teams lost outright. A couple showings were particularly embarrassing - Michigan State was favored by nine over Penn State but lost by the same margin, and Villanova lost to Syracuse by 14. The news was even more grim for bettors - only eight of the 19 ranked teams covered the spread. Trusting the opinion of the polls was a quick road to poverty.
V - Varejao, Anderson. Apparently teams from Cleveland aren’t allowed to have any luck. The Cavs lost Varejao, their second leading rebounder, for three weeks with an ankle sprain this week. That comes just after they lost Sasha Pavlovic, a starting guard, for six weeks. Those are tough breaks for a team that has won 12 of 15, covered seven of nine, and is finally playing like many expected them to coming into the season.
W - Washington State. The Cougars are, it appears, falling from grace. They were media darlings earlier in the season, but two losses this week, and three in their last four games, has decreased their appeal quite dramatically. They at least made it to overtime with Stanford, but there is no excuse for losing to Cal at home. Next up this week is UCLA and USC, so it could really get ugly if they don’t get their act together.
X - Xavier. It was an easy week for the mascots of the column, but they did what they had to do. Their lone game was at home against the outclassed La Salle, and they cruised to a 13-point win without breaking a sweat. That wasn’t a cover against a 20.5-point spread, but I’m not at all convinced that there is enough difference between a 13 and 20-point margin to get worried about. At some point the big spreads are pretty meaningless, really.
Y - Yawn. I am about to write the most predictable thing on this list - Tiger won a tournament this week. It wasn’t looking good for him in Dubai. He was chasing Ernie Els after three rounds, he had been inconsistent in the third round, and Dubai hadn’t always been kind to him in the past. The freak did what is now expected of him each time he touches his clubs, though - he birdied five of his last seven to charge back and win it by a stroke. That’s four wins in a row in official tournaments and six in his last seven. The more he plays, the more a Grand Slam seems not only possible but likely.
Z - Zzzzz. That was not a good Super Bowl game. In fact, it was, for the most part, pretty terrible. The first half was almost entirely unwatchable, and the third quarter was only barely better. The fourth quarter was better, but by that point it was almost too far gone to be saved in my eyes. I should know better than to expect anything other than utter disappointment from the biggest of NFL games. Give me a good week 13 slate of games over that circus any day.
Tags: a-to-z
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By T.O. -- 0 comments
February 4th, 2008
I have a hangover today. I’m not talking about the after effects of all that beer, though that didn’t help. Rather, I’m talking about the stark reality that football is over, and it is a long time until it rolls around again. The worst part of being a football fan is that the off-season is longer than the season itself. Sure, there are things along the way to break the monotony - signing day this week, the draft and all the chaos around that, spring practices, free agency and the like - but it’s just not the same. Before I figure out how I am going to deal with the withdrawal, though, let’s take a quick look back at the Super Bowl to see if we can make sense of the last four quarters of real, live football we will see for months. Here are my 12 observations from the big game:
1. What the hell was that? I didn’t see that coming, and if you say you did then you are probably lying.
2. I’m not sure Brady has ever been hit like that. Judging by how he reacted to it, I would guess that he hasn’t. The most shocking part wasn’t the number of times he had to pick himself up, it was the number of pretty awful passes he threw as a result of the constant pressure.
3. That non-sack of Manning that essentially sealed the game was one of the sorriest things I have ever seen. There is no excuse for that from the Raiders, never mind an undefeated Super Bowl favorite.
4. Nice catch, David Tyree. Enjoy your 15 seconds.
5. I still hate Eli. I don’t see that changing.
6. How is it that the Patriots didn’t have a way figured out to contain the pass rush when they had two weeks to prepare? That’s the biggest story of the game in my mind. I was watching the game with a couple of people who aren’t even close to football fans, yet by about the second snap they had figured out that the Giants were going to rush Brady every time he touched the ball. It wasn’t a secret.
7. I was interested to see how quickly the Pats gave up on the run. It was working well in the playoffs, but it didn’t start well in the big game, and they moved away from it. As a result, especially with the Kevin Faulk hamstring tweak, the play seemed to be a pass to Welker every time out. It’s not hard to look like a defensive genius when you just have to defend the same play every time out.
8. I keep hearing about how this was one of the all-time great Super Bowls. I’m not buying it. The first half was defensively impressive, but the offenses did little to help themselves out. The third quarter was sloppy. The fourth quarter was entertaining, and the last scoring drives by both teams were impressive, but for me that payoff at the end doesn’t outweigh the disappointment and boredom of early on. As good as the Giants were defensively, a game can’t be great when the teams don’t play like they can, and the Pats were a shadow of themselves. That was partly because of the Giants, but only partly.
9. The Patriots’ decision on what to do with Randy Moss just got much harder.
10. It seems poetic that the biggest total in Super Bowl history resulted in the biggest margin that two teams have gone under the total in Super Bowl history. The teams went under by 24 points.
11. That’s four unders in a row after the games had gone over in six of eight. Trend watchers will have to adjust expectations.
12. Man, do I hate the Mannings.
Tags: new england patriots, new york giants, NFL, Super Bowl
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By T.O. -- 0 comments
February 2nd, 2008
I’ve gone back and forth on this game for two weeks now. I am confident that the Patriots are going to win, but the question has been by how much. The problem is, in my mind, the line is pretty solid. It could go either way. In the end, though, I am going to do the reasonably unthinkable and jump on the favorite. Here are seven reasons I will take the Pats:
1. I can’t get over the fact that Bill Belichick and company have seen Eli Manning once already, so they know what to expect from him. If you listen to the media talk, Manning has suddenly surpassed his brother in excellence. I don’t buy that at all. I think he is a suspect quarterback, and I think that the Patriots have the ability to plan and scheme better than anyone, so they will be able to shut him down.
2. I think that the running game is going to be more of a wash than it is initially thought. The Giants have the better numbers, but the Patriots have been much improved in recent weeks. The Giants were not hugely effective on the ground last time the teams met, and I don’t expect much more here. Ultimately, they have to rely on two inexperienced backs playing on a huge stage against season defensive veterans for New England. The mistakes won’t be made by the Patriots. The difference is that the Giants need a strong running game to succeed, while the Patriots have shown repeatedly that they can win without one.
3. Despite what Plaxico Burress claims, the passing game is a total mismatch. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the league, and he has a ridiculous number of weapons. The Patriots can ruthlessly pick apart teams when they want to, and they will certainly want to here.
4. Experience matters, and the Patriots have all of it. Their players will be more prepared for the game, they are better coached, and they have played under much more pressure all year. Despite what people claim, the Giants haven’t proven that they can come through when it truly matters, and they have way more vulnerability than the Patriots do.
5. I think that the Patriots feel like they have been disrespected for a while now. They aren’t going to like that. They have been an ATS disaster for a couple of months, but they haven’t had much to play for and have gotten a bit complacent. They won’t be this week. I look for them to come out and try to crush the soul out of the Giants like they did against some of the other legitimate contenders they faced during the season - Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Diego, Cincinnati.
6. The public likes the Giants. Two thirds of bets placed have been on the underdog, yet the line hasn’t moved significantly since the first move down from 14. That strikes me as a bit odd, and it would make me uncomfortable to be on the same side as so much dumb money.
7. The Patriots are much, much better. They have a huge advantage at quarterback, they have a better offensive line, they have much better receivers, their running backs are comparable, they have a better secondary, and their coaching staff is far superior. On top of all that, they have not lost this year, and they have toyed with top teams when they have chosen to. I was going to bet that the Giants could keep it close, but ultimately I couldn’t justify saying that a decidedly inferior team was only going to lose by a bit.
There it is then. I will take the Giants and the points. It is down to 11.5 in some places now, but the most attractive price in my mind is -12 -104 at 5Dimes.
Whether you are with me or against me, enjoy the game - drink too much, eat too much, and don’t lose too much. I’ll be back after the game with my 12 observations on what happened.
Tags: NFL, picks, Selections, Super Bowl
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By T.O. -- 0 comments
February 1st, 2008
This is an article I had fun writing this week for Doc’s Sports. There is a ton of good information and articles over there for you to check out about the Super Bowl and everything else.
It’s incredible to see the number of Super Bowl prop bets that are being offered by books this year. You can bet on almost everything from the relevant and interesting to the truly ridiculous. As hard as it is to believe, though, there are quite a few bets that I was looking to make that I couldn’t find anyone offering action on. Here, then, are the 25 bets I wish I could make, with my chosen side in brackets. If anyone wants a piece of any of them just drop me a line.
Percentage of ads that will leave me with a sense of general disappointment (over)
Percentage of the game that will leave me with a sense of general disappointment (over)
Number of times that Joe Buck says something mind-numbingly obvious (way over)
Number of times Troy Aikman will not so subtly suggest that he is a better quarterback than Tom Brady will ever be (over)
Blood alcohol level of Tom Petty when he takes the stage (so far over that most human beings would be dead)
Number of times I will get frustrated by something someone I am watching the game with says (over)
Chances that I will throw something at that person (over)
Length of time my wife won’t talk to me after I throw something at one of our guests (over)
Number of times I say to myself during the game ‘okay, just one more Dorito’. (over)
Times we will hear about Randy Moss’ troubled past, and his rebirth after the Pats took a chance on him (over)
Times I almost throw up my Doritos after hearing about Moss (over)
What will we hear more - Plaxico Burress is tall, or Wes Welker is small? (Welker - and I’ll parlay it with ‘Brandon Jacobs is a bull’)
Color of Tom Coughlin’s face by halftime (some shade of purple)
Chances that Bill Belichick looks like a homeless man on the sidelines (over - this is a stone cold lock)
Over/under on the number of presidential candidates in the crowd (most of the ones that didn’t drop out this week)
Number of those candidates that could have named the teams playing in the game before they entered the stadium (all of them)
Number of stars of Fox shows that just happen to be sitting in the crowd watching the game (does Fox have stars?)
Number of American Idol plugs in the first half (I’d confidently take the over regardless of what the number was)
Number of times the words Brady and Hall-of-fame will be used in the same sentence (I’ll take the over)
Number of times the words Strahan and orthodontist will be used in the same sentence (definitely the under)
Point in the game at which I will first look at my watch and wonder why it feels like the game has been going on for three days (first quarter)
Number of times the words maturity and Eli will be used in the same sentence (over)
Number of times during the game I will mumble the phrase ‘I hate the Mannings’ (way over)
Amount I will have to spend on therapy if another Manning wins a Super Bowl (way, way over - and I doubt my insurance will cover it)
Amount of time it will take, if the Giants win, for Tiki Barber to run on to the field, grab the Lombardi Trophy, and claim that he is the only reason they won (under)
Tags: NFL, prop-bets, Super Bowl
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By T.O. -- 0 comments
February 1st, 2008
Yesterday it was player props, and today it is team bets. As a general rule, I think that the team props almost always offer more value than the player props - you don’t have to rely on just one player doing the right thing in order to cash a ticket. There are quite a few attractive team bets this year. I’ll post mine, and you can add any you like in the comments.
Will the game ever be tied after the first score? - Yes +130 - $250 - The score has been tied twice in the Pats two playoff games and four times in the Giants three games, so the price seems to be right to bet that it will happen again here.
Team to have most first downs in first quarter - Patriots -2 +130 - $250 - The way I see this game being played out is that the Pats won’t let the Giants hang around early like they did last time. That means that I see them getting off to a strong start on both sides of the ball, and that makes this bet good value.
First scoring play of the game will be? - Patriots field goal 7/2 - $250 - I don’t necessarily think that this is what will happen, but the price is much more attractive than any kind of touchdown, and they certainly could have to settle for three points if the Giants defense is feeling good.
Team to record first sack? - Giants +120 - $250 - I know Tom Brady can be hard to get to, but getting better than even money betting that the best pass rush in league will get the first sack seems like a decent deal to me.
Tags: NFL, Super Bowl
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By T.O. -- 0 comments
January 31st, 2008
There are so many different prop bets available for the Super Bowl that I can’t do them justice in one day. So many options mean lots of potential value, though, so it is worthwhile to spend the time looking around at what is offered. I’ll look at the player props today and the team props tomorrow. For each one I’ll make it more interesting by taking a $1000 bankroll and spreading it around in a way I hope will ultimately be profitable. Feel free to add your favorites in the comments.
Eli Manning’s first pass of the game will be incomplete - 8/5 - $150 - I think that Manning will be uncomfortable early on, and the Patriots defense will do everything they can to keep him that way. That makes this price attractive to me.
Will Randy Moss score two or more TDs? - Yes - +250 - $150 - Manning has had a rough playoff stretch, but he had eight multi-touchdown games on the season, and he torched the Giants last time out.
Donte Stallworth over three receptions - +115 - $150 - I like the price, and I think Stallworth will be looked at as a real option if Moss can’t get free.
Stephen Gostkowski over 8.5 points - +110 - $150 - The Patriots’ kicker had 12 points the last time the teams played.
Most TD Passes - Tom Brady - -1.5 +160 - $250 - Needless to say, this bet reflects my belief that this is going to be a one-sided game, and that the imbalance in quarterback play will reflect that.
Player to score first pats TD - Randy Moss - 5/2 - $150 - I think the Pats are going to go to Moss early and often after his ineffectiveness two weeks in a row. Going to him early will show that the Pats don’t fear or respect the Giants.
Tags: prop-bets, Super Bowl
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By T.O. -- 3 comments
January 30th, 2008
Before I make my Super Bowl pick I want to go through the exercise of looking at the teams one at a time and considering the ways that they could win the game. Yesterday it was the Patriots, and today it is the Giants. I should say up front that I am confident that the Patriots are going to win. The point of this exercise is to see if they can win by enough to cover the spread. The Giants can cover because:
1. The Pats are struggling ATS. After covering their first eight games the Patriots have covered just twice in their last ten, and they haven’t covered in five. That’s good news for a team that has covered five in a row, especially when that team has the benefit of a double digit spread.
2. Momentum. I’m not sure that I believe in momentum in football, but if it exists then the Giants have it. They are playing truly possessed football of late - their run through the playoffs has been nothing short of remarkable.
3. Manning is limiting mistakes. The Giants get into trouble when Eli Manning tries to do too much. He is an above average quarterback, but not by a wide margin. In the playoffs he has done what he knows he can do, and that has meant accuracy, fewer turnovers and far more effective overall play. If he keeps that up he can keep this game competitive.
4. The pass rush. The Giants had no luck getting to Brady last time, but the quarterback isn’t likely to be at his full mobillity. If the pass rush can get to him and bother him then they can neutralize the mid and deep passing games that are so potent. If the Giants can’t do it then no one can.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw. A rookie kick returner rarely factors in significantly, but Bradshaw has become much more than that. When he showed late in the year that he was a legitimate running back he created a real matchup problem. He is small and lightning fast. Brandon Jacobs is a bulldozer. Those two trading off carries will help keep the Pats defense off balance, and could leaad to the team to success on the ground.
Tags: new york giants, NFL, Super Bowl
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By T.O. -- 1 comment
January 29th, 2008
Before I make my Super Bowl pick I want to go through the exercise of looking at the teams one at a time and considering the ways that they could win the game. I’ll start with the favorites today and hit the underdogs tomorrow. The Patriots can cover because:
1. Tom Brady. The guy is the best quarterback in the league, and the biggest asset, too. He can single handedly win this game if he decides to.
2. Depth. The offense is scary. They have pass catching threats everywhere, Brady will get the time he needs, and they can run at will. On the defensive side they aren’t quite as scary, but they can still give the Giants nightmares. They are more talented in a significant majority of positions.
3. Experience. Just think about this - this is the fourth time in seven years that the Pats have been here. The roster and coaching staff has undergone changes along the way, but the core is the same, the attitude is the same, and the hunger is stronger than ever. It is not a coincidence that the Patriots have been as consistently outstanding as they have been, and they’re ongoing excellence is a compelling reason to support them.
4. 19-0. The chance to be the first team to do something that seems impossible has been motivating this team all year, and it will be a huge motivator in this game. They could decide that they really want to put an exclamation point on the victory, and that would mean a cover.
5. The public doesn’t believe it. For the first time all year, the public is firmly on the side of the other guys. The spread is seen as too big by bettors, and more than two-thirds of bets have been on the Giants. Going against the public is never a bad thing, and especially not in a game where so much of the public money isn’t backed by a lot of rational thought.
Tags: new england patriots, NFL, Super Bowl
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