Winning Colors, the spectacular filly who won the Kentucky Derby in 1988, was euthanized yesterday at the age of 23. She was a completely one-dimensional horse who had to have the lead, but she had ridiculous speed to burn. She took the lead early and kept it the whole way around, and there are few horses out there that could pull that off, never mind against the opposite, stronger gender. I remember thinking that D. Wayne Lukas was nuts with his prediction of how the race would play out, but he was pretty much exactly right. Truly memorable, and against a field that turned out to be pretty impressive, too.
If you have never seen her race, or even if you have, you should check it out:
There are four games in tonight’s holiday college basketball action that stand out for me as providing some value:
Xavier (+2.5) at Rhode Island - Xavier has struggled a bit lately, but they have still won seven in a row even if the margin hasn’t been as big as it could be. This is a battle for A-10 supremacy, and I truly believe that Xavier is the better squad. That makes them attractive here.
Austin Peay (+1) at Tennessee State - Austin Peay is the better team by a wide margin, and they are playing reasonably well. The edge isn’t huge here, but it is big enough to make it worth a play.
Texas A&M (+5) at Texas - Texas is playing as well as anyway and they are at home. Texas A&M is great when they are on their game, but they are wildly inconsistent. The value is on the Longhorns.
Gonzaga (-6.5) at San Diego - The Bulldogs aren’t getting a lot of press this year, but they are still headed to the tourney, and they have made a habit of covering huge spreads lately. I expect them to cover a much more modest one here as they ramp their game up in anticipation of the postseason.
As is usual, there are a million college games this weekend. Here are the five that stick out as the best values on Saturday:
Louisville (-5.5) at Providence - I love how Louisville is laying, I think that they match up well here, and I think that Rick Pitino gets a little more fired up than usual(which is saying something) when he goes back to Providence. The Cardinals seem attractive.
Drake (-1.5) at Northern Iowa - Drake had a long winning streak snapped last time out. If they are going to bounce back then this is a great spot for them to do it. The line seems soft. I’d take Drake.
Creighton (+2) at Bradley - I have been very disappointed by Bradley this year. Creighton has played reasonably well, and they know they need to step their game up a bit to make the tournament. This seems like a good place for them to start.
Stanford (+1.5) at Arizona - This is a tough one because I like both teams. Stanford is a bit deeper, though, and they are coming off a tough loss. They should be able to bounce back and win a game that should be fascinating.
Purdue (-8) at Northwestern - Purdue is as hot as any team in the country. Northwestern really, really isn’t. Northwestern can’t compete on any level here, and I think that this one could get ugly.
The NBA Skills part of the All-Star weekend isn’t as good as it used to be, but it still has its moments. More importantly, though, it is something we can bet on. That’s always a good thing. Here are the three most interesting bets on the board in my mind:
Winner of the three-point shootout - Daniel Gibson - 7/2 - Gibson played in the Rookie Challenge on Friday night and he nailed 11 threes. It would appear that he is pretty dialed in. He seems like as good a bet as any.
Slam Dunk contest - Rudy Gay - 7/2 - This contest is completely wide open. Gay is the longest shot on the board, he is very talented, and he has been working hard to prepare on Youtube. He seems like he is worth a shot at the price.
MVP - Chris Bosh - 20/1 - I’m not saying that Bosh is likely to win, but he was very determined to make the game (his video campaign to get in was brilliant and hilarious), he is underappreciated, and he has the skills. He seems like an overlay at this price.
As I was writing about NBA Championship futures for a client this morning I found myself thinking that NCAA Futures were way more interesting. Maybe that’s because the tournament is much closer than the NBA playoffs, or maybe that’s because college basketball is about a million times more interesting than the NBA. Either way, there are some interesting values and some terrible prices on the board for the road to the Final Four.
Bargains
I’m not saying that these teams are a lock to win or anything, but I think that their chances are better than their price:
Stanford (35/1) - The Cardinal are easiily the second best team in the Pac-10, and that’s a tough conference. This price doesn’t give them enough respect.
Purdue (100/1) - They swept Wisconsin and they beat Michigan State. This might not be the best year for the Big Ten, but leading that conference should always mean something, and this team is way tougher than this price would suggest.
Texas (35/1) - They couldn’t score worth a darn, yet they beat Kansas by playing defense. That’s a sign of a pretty good team.
Xavier (80/1) - At this price these boys are a very live longshot. They have done what is asked of them, and they have the experience of blowing a game against Ohio State last year to build on.
No Value
North Carolina (6/1) - There is a lot wrong with the way this team is playing, and it goes way beyond Ty Lawson’s injury. they are not as sharp as they should be, and they are underpriced as a result.
Georgetown (12/1) - Louisville had their way with the Hoyas in the second half, and other good teams could, too. This is a huge underlay.
There was a truly fascinating situation involving Cleveland yesterday. On Sunday night the Cavs were crushed by the Nuggets in Denver. They lost by 30, and it wasn’t that close. In an ugly quirk of scheduling the team played the next night in Orlando. They settled onto their plane for the long trip but were grounded by mechanical troubles. That meant they wouldn’t be able to leave until the next morning, and they wouldn’t be able to arrive in Orlando until mid-afternoon. The game started at 7:00.
The public noticed this news and they panicked. The line was sitting with Orlando as four point favorites. As soon as the plane woes emerged the line jumped to 8.5 points almost immediately, and to 9.5 points by tip-off.
Why did the line move so much? The public figured that the team would be affected negatively (obviously quite affected) by the hassle and confusion of the travel problems, and that they wouldn’t be properly prepared. While that may be the case if you or I was traveling, it just doesn’t make a lot of sense here. These guys travel for a living, and they do it on planes designed for their every comfort. It’s not like they had to ride to Orlando squished into a school bus. This kind of a change would be nothing more than a mild annoyance for an NBA squad. It might make me consider whether I wanted to back the Cavs if the line didn’t move and their perceived edge was slight, but it certainly isn’t worth 5.5 points. That meant that the Cavs, a team that is playing well anyway (16 wins in 22 games before Orlando), suddenly had a ton of value fall into their laps.
In the end the Cavs rebounded nicely and had a nice seven point win against Orlando.
The lesson here is pretty clear - if you see a sudden and bizarre line movement, take the time to explain why it happened. If the logic doesn’t make sense you probably have a prime betting opportunity.
This is a column I do every week for Doc’s Sports. You can, and should, check them out at docsports.com for all sorts of information, insights and picks. I do a lot of writing for them.
A - Ascension. Few would be able to name the team at the top of the Big Ten standings at first guess. It’s Purdue. It might seem like they are upstarts compared to the four other likely tournament bound teams in the conference, but the Boilermakers proved they belonged this weekend by completing a season sweep of Wisconsin. Add in a sweep of Illinois, a solid beating of Ohio State, and a tight loss at Michigan State that far exceeded expectations and you havea team that has legitimately ascended to the upper tier of the conference.
B - Brady, John. LSU did a great disservice to sports bettors this week. They fired coach John Brady. Ever since Brady made the Final Four with Tyrus Thomas and Glen Davis it seems he has completely forgotten how to coach and recruit. His teams have been been terrible, and betting against them has been a virtual lock. The good days will end sooner or later for bettors, but the good news is he has made such a mess with the program that John Wooden himself wouldn’t be able to turn it around in a hurry.
C - Chris Webber. Webber made his debut for Golden State this week and, well, it was a debut. It was a bit of a surprise to see him start after missing so much time, and it was pretty obvious that he was rusty. He had four points in 12 minutes as the Warriors lost to the Bulls. His two points next time out against Sacramento were even worse, but at least he added five rebounds. I’m sure he’ll come around in time, but it’s a good that that the team doesn’t need a lot of immediate help.
D - Drake Bulldogs. Coming into the season, Drake was expected to be completely irrelevant in the Missouri Valley Conference. After all, the team has one winning season to its credit in the last two decades. You would be very rich if you had been able to predict before the season that this would be the team to reel off 21 straight wins. They have virtually clinched the conference already, and they are an incredible 15-4 ATS, to boot.
E - Earnhardt, Dale Jr. So much for an adjustment period for Junior with his new car and new team. In his Hendrick Motorsports debut, Earnhardt won the Bud Shootout at Daytona. It may have only come in an exhibition, but it was still a much needed win for the driver - he hasn’t had a win of any kind since the summer of 2006. maybe this is a sign of what can happen when the popular driver has a good team on top of their game behind him. No team is stronger than Hendrick these days - they had four drivers in the top six.
F - Faint hope. Indulge me for a second here. As a guy who lives and dies for Michigan it has not been a fun basketball season. Not only have wins been scarce, but we haven’t even been competitive. I knew it was going to be a painful transition to John Beilein but I wasn’t expecting anything quite like this. It pleases me, then, that we have shown signs of hope in the last five games. They actually won one on the weekend against Penn State, and they have covered spreads against three impressive teams - Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State - as well. Bright days are still way off, but at least I can actually believe that they might eventually arrive. That’s progress.
G - Gasol, Pau. How is Gasol fitting in with his new team? It depends upon the game. His first start was brilliant - Kobe Bryant struggled, but Gasol picked up the slack and led the Lakers to an easy win. The very next game, though, was a disaster. They lost to the Hawks of all teams, and Al Horford looked like Wilt Chamberlain as he posted a career high 20 rebounds. Overall, though, they have little to complain about - they’ve won three of four on the road since the trade, including a nice win at Orlando.
H - Hurler. The Mariners should that they are heading into the season serious about winning. They were closer than people expected last year, and they are significantly better after finally adding Erik Bedard from the Orioles to the top of the rotation after weeks of flirting. The Canadian lefty is a true star who will only be better now that he is out of the dysfunctional mess in Baltimore. The surprising part is that Baltimore got a better package of players for Bedard than Minnesota did for Johan Santana. I really like Bedard, but I’d take Santana any day.
I - Insanity. At some point in this column this week I planned to write about the Pro Bowl. In the end, though, I couldn’t even bring myself to read a recap of the game, never mind watch the game itself. I honestly have no idea why the league still insists on playing this glorified flag football game between all the good players who aren’t smart enough or important enough to come up with an excuse to skip it. This dog needs to be taken out back and put down humanely.
J - Jozy Altidore. The future is now for the U.S. Soccer team. Altidore, the biggest soccer phenom in the country not named Freddy Adu, made his first career start for the national side in a friendly against Mexico this week. Altidore made a big impression in the game that was played to a 2-2 draw in front on a shockingly large crowd of 70,000 in Houston. He scored the second goal to give his team a lead, but they couldn’t play the defense to stay ahead.
K - Knight, Bobby. The old coach pulled off his final surprise this week. Or maybe it won’t be his final surprise and he has one up his sleeve that will put Eddie Sutton to shame. Regardless, it was a shock when word came down at the start of the week that Knight had resigned effectively immediately and passed his team off to his son. It wasn’t hugely relevant because the Texas Tech was on a slow road to nowhere, but I would have liked to see the guy get a better send off than this.
L - Louisville. It was an exceptional week for the Cardinals. Any week with two wins against ranked teams is one to remember. On Monday they went on the road and made Marquette look ridiculous in a crushing defeat. On Saturday they hosted a tougher opponent in Georgetown, but they were able to fight back from a big halftime deficit to win going away. Louisville has found their form at just the right tie, and I expect them to be extremely tough down the stretch.
M - Malkin, Evgeni. It could very easily have been a disaster for the Pittsburgh Penguins when Sidney Crosby was hurt. Instead, Malkin has stepped up and filled the gap nicely. The Russian has 21 points in the ten games since Crosby went down, including 15 in the last five. The Pens have won six of ten, and picked up a point in two overtime losses, so they’ve hardly noticed that Crosby is gone. Not that they won’t be thrilled to have him back, of course.
N - Nowitzki, Dirk. It probably doesn’t seem like much of a surprise that the German star of the Mavs had a big triple double on Wednesday to lead his team past the Bucks. It should. As incredible as it seems, that was the first triple double of Nowitzki’s career. The 29 points, 12 assists and 10 boards weren’t enough to help his boys cover, though. For a team with a .680 win percentage, the Mavs are just a terrible bet - 20-27-3 ATS.
O - Older horse division. With Curlin off to Dubai for his next two starts, the division is very wide open in the States. All the names we have gotten used to in the last couple of years have been retired and it is time for new stars to emerge. One of the first appears to be Grasshopper. He got his first graded stakes win on Saturday in the Mineshaft, and he looked good doing it. Though he hadn’t won before he had a solid record - he was a strong second to Street Sense in the Travers last summer.
P - Pyro. I have my first crush on the Triple Crown trail this year, and for the second straight year he is from the Steve Asmussen stable. Curlin’s stable mate Pyro was a strong second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year, but he looked like a whole new horse in the Risen Star Saturday. He was last of 12 at the top of the stretch before totally exploding in a move you have to see to believe to take it going away. If you missed it, you had better head to Youtube right away. You don’t have to be a racing fan to be in awe of this one.
Q - Quite insane. I was on the edge of my seat for all of Wednesday because it was national signing day. Once I thought about it, though, I was a bit embarrassed that I was so interested and affected by the decisions of 17 year olds. It made me feel very old. Regardless, I was shocked by how well Miami and Notre Dame were able to do despite on-field struggles, I was saddened by the success of the devil himself in Alabama, and I was pleased by how well Michigan did despite the coaching change. It was nice to see USC not quite do as well as usual, too.
R - Reversal. Washington State had been free falling after a strong start, with consecutive losses to Cal, Stanford and UCLA, and six games without a cover. They found their form again with a bang on Saturday, though. USC rolled into town and probably wished they had just stayed at home. They lost by 24, and Wazzu shut down everything the team tried. O.J. Mayo was ineffective, and his teammates were no better. We’ll have to wait to see if the Cougars just got lucky or if their mojo is back, but for one game at least we remembered why people were so high on this team a month ago.
S - Shaq. For the second time in two weeks we have been caught completely off guard by a huge NBA trade. Unlike the Gasol move, though, it isn’t completely obvious why the better team made the deal. Shaq has a lot to offer, but he’s also well past his prime, not totally healthy, and way to slow even at his best to fit seamlessly into the Phoenix offense. Still, I am cautiously optimistic that the deal will end up as a winner for the Suns. My biggest wish is a Phoenix - Lakers Western Final - the hate on that court could be cut with a knife.
T - Ty Lawson. Tyler Hansbrough may be the superstar on the Tar Heels, but it is pretty clear that Ty Lawson is the engine that keeps the team rolling strong. Lawson has missed two games, and it hasn’t been pretty. The Tar Heels got blown out at home by hated rivals Duke, and then needed a miraculous late comeback and two overtime periods to get past Clemson. Lawson can’t heal fast enough.
U - UCLA. The Bruins will have to work very hard to find ways to spin the embarrassment they suffered on Sunday. They were playing Washington, a team that is just 4-7 in conference, and a pitiful 9-14 ATS, so there was no reason for them, the best team in the conference, to have any problems at all. There was really no reason for them to lose by 10, but they did it anyway. Darren Collison was terrible in the loss - three points in 38 minutes.
V - Vijay. Singh hung around all weekend, and was able to close with a birdie to force a playoff at Pebble Beach this weekend. It wasn’t meant to be, though - the pride of Fiji was dispatched by Steve Lowery on the extra hole. The highlights of the tournament were elsewhere, though - seeing Phil Mickelson shoot an 11 on a par five on Friday made every amateur golfer in the world feel better, and it was a treat to see 48 year old Corey Pavin finish an unexpected third.
W - Wildcats. Kansas State played an emotional game against Nebraska on Wednesday. Senior guard Clent Stewart lost his mother to bone cancer, and the team played in her honor. Michael Beasley, like he does so often we have almost become numb to it, stepped up and had a huge game. He pretty much beat Nebraska single-handedly with 35 points and 13 rebounds as the much improved Wildcats won by 15.
X - Xavier. Our mascots made us nervous on Sunday when they looked like they were going to drop one to St. Joe’s, the third best team in the A-10. In the end, though, our faith was rewarded as they won by four. There’s a bit of a disturbing trend, though - that’s the seventh time in none that they have failed to cover, and the second straight game when they won by far less than they really should have.
Y - Yahoo. I really don’t like cheering for an injury, but I will make an exception in Curt Schilling’s case. The Boston hurler has a serious arm injury, and there is at least a decent chance that it could be career ending for the aging player. I know that retirement won’t totally shut the guy up, and it certainly won’t make him any less annoying, but at least it would mean that he’d find himself in front of a microphone less often. That would make the world a better place.
Z - Zorn, Jim. The Redskins found yet another way to prove that they are a confused and ultimately doomed franchise. First they hire coordinators before they have a coach, then they strike out on landing their top choices for their empty head job, then they string along three contenders seemingly forever before ultimately elevating their new offensive coordinator, Zorn, to head coach. No one saw that one coming, and even fewer will be excited by this move that reeks of desperation and chronic ineptness. Zorn has never even been a coordinator before (unless you count his two weeks for the Redskins).
I am the worst Kentucky Derby handicapper in the world. It’s not that I don’t put the time into it. I start following the two year olds in the summer and get more and more obsessed as the first Saturday in May draws near. My problem is that I fall in love with a horse or two at some point in the process, and then odds or value are irrelevant to me. Sometimes I get lucky, like I did last year with Curlin. More often I don’t, with a long list of also-rans having my love and affection through the years. This year I picked a favorite early. I liked Pyro a lot heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I originally noticed him because he is a stable mate of Curlin. He treated me well in that race, finishing a strong second to War Pass. Since then he has largely been off the radar, though I couldn’t have been more excited when he recently started working with Curlin. Well, he made his three year old debut in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds this year. Wow. He was good last year, but he grew into himself in a big way in the offseason. It’s too early to peak, and I know I am setting myself up for a tough fall, but I am just plain giddy about this horse. Check out this race - the stretch drive is truly incredible:
There is a whole lot of interesting horse racing going this weekend, as the Triple Crown trail reaches a new level and some golden oldies come back in action. I’ll be watching it all, but one horse that I am especially excited to see is Grasshopper (on the rail in the Travers when he wasn’t quite good enough against Street Sense). He was terrible last time out in the Super Derby, but he is well rested and quite a bit older now, and I am very curious to see if he is better off for it. He runs in the Mineshaft at Fair Grounds on Saturday, and he is the 5/2 second choice behind the incredibly overrated Magna Graduate. The sport has a pretty big void in the older horse division that was made even more gaping with Curlin heading to Dubai for two races. Grasshopper has the talent to step up into that void, and I can’t wait to see if he has the heart to go with it.
Key Saturday games. As I write this it is Friday afternoon, so there are no lines out for Saturday’s games. There are, however, several games of interest that I will be keeping a close eye on when the lines come out. Here’s the cream of them:
Boston College at Duke - If the price is right I’ll be looking for a post-UNC letdown for the Blue Devils that could allow Boston College to stay close enough to cover what should be a pretty big spread.
USC at Washington State - The Cougs are in a freefall, and USC has covered six of seven. The Trojans are solid on the road and could be tough here if the odds are attractive.
Northwestern at Michigan State - This one is a bit like watching a car accident. Northwestern is truly terrible, but I really want to see how much damage Michigan State can do in this case. The Spartans are a solid team, but I would love to see just a bit more from them, and this would be a good place to start.
Baylor at Kansas - The Bears have been a very pleasant surprise this year, and they should be fired up to prove that they are for real here. This will be a good test for both teams.
Evansville at Drake - Drake is a covering machine, but this will be a much bigger spread than they are used to, and Evansville played them tough last time the teams met. If the lline gets crazy, which it really could, there could be some value in the visitors.
Georgetown at Louisville - I love how Louisville is playing, and Georgetown is very solid. This should be a slugfest.
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There is a whole lot of interesting horse racing going this weekend, as the Triple Crown trail reaches a new level and some golden oldies come back in action. I’ll be watching it all, but one horse that I am especially excited to see is Grasshopper (on the rail in the Travers when he wasn’t quite good enough against Street Sense). He was terrible last time out in the Super Derby, but he is well rested and quite a bit older now, and I am very curious to see if he is better off for it. He runs in the Mineshaft at Fair Grounds on Saturday, and he is the 5/2 second choice behind the incredibly overrated Magna Graduate. The sport has a pretty big void in the older horse division that was made even more gaping with Curlin heading to Dubai for two races. Grasshopper has the talent to step up into that void, and I can’t wait to see if he has the heart to go with it.
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