New quarterbacks all over the place in the NFL
We always see a lot of change at the quarterback position, but we rarely see as much as we are this week. Chicago, Buffalo, and Oakland are using new starters this week, Carolina might, and Baltimore and Arizona (and others) have their starters on very short leashes. Here’s a look at the betting impact of the certain changes:
Chicago - Rex Grossman is finally gone. Brian Griese is the better choice, and almost everyone knows it. This is a case, though, where the public will almost certainly overreact to the change. The woeful play of Grossman has been so well documented that the public will automatically give the Bears more offensive credit with the change. It’s pretty clear, though, that the line was et in this game to compensate for the expected public reaction. Chicago opened as three point favorites, and it’s fallen to 2.5 despite the fact that about 2/3 of bets have been on the Bears. That’s contrary to the expected move, and shows that the line is bigger than it probably should have been with all else being equal. By that logic there should be value in the Lions.
Buffalo - This one is very interesting. The public obviously doesn’t like J.P. Losman very much. The starter is out and raw rookie Trent Edwards from Stanford will be starting in his place, yet the line has not moved much at all on this game. That shows that bettors think that the change in quarterbacks will have little impact on the pathetic Buffalo offense. It also shows that bettors don’t have a lot of faith in the Jets and their ability to rattle a novice starter.
Oakland - Josh McCown and out and Daunte Culpepper is the new place filler until JaMarcus Russell is ready to take over his team. The public loves the move. McCown was an unknown, so Culpepper is seen as a big upgrade. Despite being the underdogs and the road team, two-thirds of bettors are on Oakland. That rarely happens. The line has moved from 5 to 4 as a result. It helps that they are playing an underwhelming Miami squad.
UPDATE: The games played out much like the odds and the betting attention said that they would. Chicago was a disaster, while Oakland and Buffalo rode their new starters to big wins.
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