If you have never seen her race, or even if you have, you should check it out:

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Post from: Ultra Sports Bet

Check out this article. It’s one I wrote today about the effect of superstars on the performance of NBA teams against the spread. I’m biased, but I think it is kind of interesting.

The focus of the racing world is mostly on the road to the Derby, but there are other things going on. This is Asiatic Boy, and he is making me giddy. He is based in Dubai, and he is spectacular. He won the UAE Triple Crown last year, and he had a big, impressive win today in Dubai. I’m so excited because of what is on his horizon. He’s pointed at the Dubai World Cup. So is Curlin, my favorite horse in the world who, it was just announced, will be racing again this year. Curlin versus Asiatic Boy coud be a real Clash of the Titans. I can’t wait. The race is on March 29, by the way.

Speaking of racing, I won’t say much yet, but I will foreshadow a bit… there will soon be much more thoroughbred content available in these parts, but not at the expense of the other sports. Happy days are ahead.

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There isn’t a sport I love more than horse racing. As we get closer to the Triple Crown and the race for one of the 20 starting spots heats up we’ll spend more time looking at the sport of kings. I want to take a few minutes now, though, to look at some intriguing races this weekend. We’re in the early days of the year, and high profile drama is hard to find, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t good stuff going on.

Six year old Einstein is making his season debut in an allowance on Friday. This is an immensely talented horse who I have always liked. The last time I saw him was in the Dixie Stakes at Pimlico on Preakness day, and I was pretty sure he had died. He was in a truly awful wreck, but he managed to get up with little damage. This is his first start since then, and I will be very interested to see if he still has what it takes.

There are three good stakes races on Saturday at Santa Anita. If, that is, they can manage to make their new Cushion Track functional. They had to cancel racing last weekend after rain caused a world of troubles for the fake track. Don’t even get me started on what I think about stupid synthetic surfaces.

The most interesting is the return of Tiago (pictured) in the San Fernando. He disappointed the many who picked him as an upstart contender in the Breeders’ Cup when he finished fifth. This is his first race back, but he showed in the fall he likes Santa Anita’s synthetic surface, so he could be in a good spot. He faces a field of 12 that includes some interesting horses. Johnny Eves won his graded stakes debut the day after Christmas in the Malibu and is back for more. Ravel was one of the top three year olds in the country at this time last year before an injury made him disappear for seven months. Great Hunter is a horse I never thought I would see again. His last start was the Kentucky Derby.

The San Pasqual Handicap was canceled last weekend, and Arson Squad has joined the field in the re-do. He looked like he was going to be one of the top older horses around last year in the first couple months, but then he fell off the face of the earth. I am very interested to see what he can do against six horses that are talented but far from unbeatable.

Finally, the first Derby prep of the year in California is the San Rafael. The race last year turned out to be irrelevant. Great Hunter’s stablemate Notional won, but faded on the trail, and no other horse in the field made any real noise. This year’s version would have been much better if the track wasn’t such a mess. Potential freak Maimonides was pulled out of consideration for the race because of surface concerns. That leaves Massive Drama as the only real proven contender, and El Gato Malo and Overbid as two horses that might have some talent but will have to step up. I hope to be proven wrong, but I don’t see this race as relevant this year, either.

UPDATE: Something I forgot to mention when I wrote this – undefeated Indian Blessing, the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner who is a lock for the Eclipse award, makes her three year old debut on Sunday in the Santa Ynez at Santa Anita. Here’s hoping she lives up to her scary potential.

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If you don’t know the story of The Green Monkey, you should. He sold last year as a two year old for a ridiculous $16 million. He finally got to the track late this summer after more than a year of delays. He should have stayed in the barn. In three races he has burned a lot of money up as solid favorite each time because he has yet to be competitive. Here’s a good write-up of the situation and all its ridiculousness.

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The favorite, Wrzeszcz (easily the hardest to pronounce name in the country), was never a factor. Neither were the second or third choice. A 40-1 shot somehow found the lead at the start and never gave it up. A 45-1 horse made a ridiculous move all the way from last to second at the wire. The 7-1 fourth choice was third, and a 16-1 horse finished the superfecta.

What did that all mean? Ridiculously huge payouts. And I do mean ridiculously huge. The exacta paid $2,103.60 on a $2 bet. The trifecta was a stunning $17,270.60 for a $2 investment, and the super was  $57,620 from $1. Needless to say, this will lead to gigantic pick three and pick four tickets, too.

There is very likely no sound handicapping system that would have led you to nailing this result. Mine sure didn’t. Nonetheless, it’s always fun to dream, and a win like this is certainly something to dream about.

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Filly and Mare Sprint - My Pick: Maryfield. Winner: Maryfield. I’ll never complain about hitting an $18.00 winner. The race set up almost exactly as I hoped it would. Dream Rush and La Traviata tried to kill each other on the front with a ridiculous pace, and that left it for the closers to pick up the scraps. Maryfield was the closer I liked, and she did me proud.

Juvenile Turf – My Pick: Gio Ponti. Winner: Nownownow. I spent about two seconds on this race, and really didn’t care that I didn’t win. The horses were from all over the place, the surface was terrible, and the experience of the runners was wildly varied. A handicapping nightmare. I had no emotional buy-in with my pick, and passed on the race.

Dirt Mile – My Pick: Gottcha Gold. Winner: Corinthian. I have no regrets here. Gottcha Gold got the lead and hung on nicely to the end in a Hard Spun-like effort. He was clearly the second best and would have won if it weren’t for Corinthian. I have thoroughly enjoyed Corinthian in his career and have won on him in the past. Unfortunately, I have lost on him more. He’s a hit or miss horse, and I bet that he would miss here.

Juvenile Fillies – My Pick: Izarra. Winner: Indian Blessing. I stayed away from the favorite (the winner) because I was concerned by the fact that, despite winning, she had slowed badly down the stretch in her last effort. I figured that that would set the race up well for Izarra. She was a powerful closer, and though she hadn’t run on dirt before I hoped that she would take to it well. Despite the fact that the opportunity for a strong close was present (Indian Blessing did the last two furlongs in a very pedestrian 27.1 seconds), Izarra didn’t fire and ended up tenth. Whether it was the dirt or the weather, it just wasn’t her day.

Juvenile – My Pick: Pyro. Winner: War Pass. I am totally happy with this pick. Pyro had finished an impressive second to War Pass in the Champagne, and I was confident that those were the two best horses in this field. I liked both, but I went with Pyro based on his price and on the fact that I though War pass may have been burned out by a pace challenge. That pace challenge didn’t materialize, War Pass was able to run his race, and my horse was clearly second best. A fine result in a race this tough to call.

Filly and Mare Turf - My Pick: Passage of Time. Winner: Lahudood. Not a lot to complain about here, as my three horses made up the trifecta. I took a shot on Passage of Time because she had solid form and because her trainer was emphatic throughout the week that she would be happier the softer the ground got. I stuck with the pick, but would have moved away from it near post time if I could have because passage of Time was made the favorite at an underlay, while Honey Ryder and Lahudood were both attractive overlays. Excluding the odds, though, I’m happy with my logic.

Sprint - My Pick: Smokey Stover. Winner: Midnight Lute. My horse didn’t fire at all and was eased before the finish line. Clearly the surface was a disaster. Though there’s nothing I could do about that, I do have to admit one big error here. I had completely ruled out Midnight Lute, not even including him in my trifecta. I didn’t believe in his ability to replicate his monster performance in the Forego, and I thought there was absolutely no value in the price. His move down the stretch was truly monstrous, and I didn’t give him nearly enough credit.

Mile – My Pick: Nobiz Like Shobiz. Winner: Kip Deville. This is another race where, like the F&M Turf, I made a pick based on morning lines that I wouldn’t have made at the post time odds. I didn’t believe that Nobiz was the best horse in the field currently, but I love his potential, and I thought that he was a nice overlay at 8-1. When he went off at less than 4-1 I felt a sense of inevitable doom. I have nothing to complain about with his effort – he ran a career best Beyer and finished fourth. I just wouldn’t have made the pick if he’d been 4-1 in the morning line. Of course, it all doesn’t matter, because Kip Deville would never have been my pick anyway, and I thought that the favorite, Excellent Art, who finished second, was a bet-against. This just wasn’t my race.

Distaff - My Pick: Lady Joanne. Winner: Ginger Punch. If I could have found an eight sided coin I would have used it to handicap this race. There were eight horses in the 12 horse field that I liked for one reason or another, and I found it very difficult to separate any of them. In the end I went with Lady Joanne because she had a nice price and she has consistently been in the money. She finished fourth. The top six horses were all in my eight, so I really can’t complain too much.

Turf - My Pick: Dylan Thomas. Winner: English Channel. I messed this one up (Dylan Thomas was fifth), but I didn’t know how to get away from it. Over the week before I had repeatedly written that I thought that Dylan Thomas was primed to be beaten because of the challenge of coming off the Arc to win here. Despite that, I ended up going with him. In part I got taken in by the hype, and in part I just couldn’t find a better option. I discredited English Channel because of the ground, and thought that Dylan Thomas would handle the ground because he won over a soft ground at the Arc (upon further research after the race I found that the ground at the Arc was soft but drying – oops). Unwilling to back English Channel at his price, there was no one else that I felt good enough about, so I went with Dylan Thomas pretty much by default. Certainly the pick I feel the least proud of.

Classic – My Pick: Curlin. Winner: Curlin. I made my pick for the BC Classic on Preakness day when Curlin beat Street Sense, and I blindly stuck with it since then. I love this horse and was thrilled with his performance. I looked very closely at this race, but it was only to pick my other two horses, because there was virtually nothing that would have moved me off my top pick.

Overall - My top picks in the 11 races ended up winning twice and finishing second twice. $2 win bets on all 11 horses would have netted a profit of $6.80 and an ROI of 30.9%. $2 place bets on all 11 races were also profitable, with a net of $3 and an ROI of 13.6%. It wasn’t a dominating weekend, but it was a reasonably successful one and I can’t be too disappointed given the conditions. Most importantly, there is only one pick – Dylan Thomas – that I wish I had to do all over again. That makes for a good day, and it means I can’t wait until next year.

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My beloved Curlin was absolutely dominant in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (and a major steal at 4/1 to boot) and wrapped up Horse of the Year, and my beloved Michigan rolled to an easy win and a cover of a huge spread against Minnesota. I may forget it sometimes, but life is pretty darned good.

You can catch the highlights of the race here.

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It is truly ugly in New Jersey for the Breeders’ Cup. There are unconfirmed reports that Sheik Mohammed has ordered an ark to be built. When doing your final handicapping for the big day there’s really only one thing to remember: DON’T OVERTHINK IT. The weather is a mess, but it is just one factor that makes handicapping these races as difficult as it is. Just have fun. The horses that won today were, for the most part, good enough to win on a dry track.

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