Harvard (+7) at Columbia - I like Columbia here for several reasons:

1. They beat Harvard by nine on the road two weeks ago.
2. They are an impressive 10-4 ATS, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight.
3. John Baumann, the Columbia forward who is the only real scoring threat on either team, is in fine form recently and he will be able to feast on the truly pathetic Harvard D.
4. I hate Tommy Amaker, blame him for ruining my beloved Michigan basketball program, and want to see him suffer as much as possible.
5. Neither team has anything left to play for, so the home crowd (such as it will be) will make a big difference.

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1. Yao Ming’s season ending injury. My first reaction – wow, that sucks. My second reaction – with Rick Adelman at the helm, the team isn’t going to struggle as much as people think. That should create some value as the public over-reacts.

2. Scott Kazmir needed an MRI on his elbow. Ouch. I am relatively bullish on the Rays, and I think that there is very big value in playing the over on their season total. A lot of that value would evaporate if Kazmir isn’t okay. Thankfully, the MRI didn’t turn up anything.

3. Barry Bonds. The word is that no one seems interested in him, but I don’t buy that for a second. The guy is scum, but his OPS was 1.065 last year. That’s ridiculously good. Sooner or later some team is going to admit that they are interested, they are going to bring himin, and, sadly, they are going to be significantly better for it.

4. Tennessee. You finally get to number one, and then you let it all slip away with a lackluster effort and a loss at Vanderbilt? Oops.

5. NHL trading day. I love what Dallas did in adding Brad Richards. The West is going to be very tough. Pittsburgh took a huge gamble by trading away a ton of young talent for Marian Hossa, but I like the gamble, and I think it will comedown to them and New Jersey in the East.

6. Ottawa Senators. They fired coach John Paddock today. Wow. Remember at the start of the year when they couldn’t lose if they tried? What a wasted opportunity it looks like this season is going to be.

7. Jamaal Magloire signed with Dallas as a free agent. he hasn’t been anywhere near his former All-Star caliber recently, but he’s only 29 and he needs a better situation. This could be it. This makes Dallas significantly better in my eyes. Just what we needed – a Western conference that is even tougher.

8. Drake lost to Missouri State. The Bulldogs are a great story, but this game is an example of why I am going to find it hard to trust in the postseason.

9. Derrick Rose. Memphis’ stud frosh point guard missed practice on Monday with the flu, and is listed as questionable tonight against Tulsa. I will be filing away if and how he plays as an indicator of his heart and grit. Further, I’ll be looking to see how Rose’s whole team bounces back from a disheartening setback. Bettertha Tennessee bounced back from the win, I hope.

10. Congress is after Clemens again. What would it take to make this whole ugly, depressing thing just go away?

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Davidson (-3) at Winthrop – Off the top I’ll say that I like Davidson here. The Wildcats are playing well, especially on the road, and they match up well. Winthrop is at the top of the Big South, but that doesn’t mean too much. Of course, Davidson has faced only marginally better competition in the Southern conference. It comes down, then, to three things;

1) Non-conference competition – Winthrop has played a few decent teams, and they have a win over Miami that looks better after the Hurricanes stunned Duke. They haven’t played nearly the level of competition that Davidson has, though. The non-conference schedule holds more importance in my mind when the teams don’t play regularly, and these two programs have never met.

2) Stephen Curry – He’s one of the best players in the country, and the Davidson guard could be the difference here. Winthrop can’t score at all, but Davidson’s defense is only average, so the Wildcats won’t be able to exploit that edge as much as they could. Winthrop plays solid defense, but they haven’t seen an offense as strong as Davidson’s, or a player as good as Curry. I’m not confident that Winthrop is ready for the step up in class.

3) ATS records – It’s not Winthrop’s fault that they have only played three games with a spread, but it makes it difficult to know how they perform when bettors’ money is on the line. It also means that it is harder for the books to set an accurate line. On the other hand, Davidson, at 15-9 ATS, is a proven performer that has been decently consistent for bettors.

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The other way that you can know that this is a huge game is that the line came out on Wednesday night for a Saturday night game. That has happened, well, once this year that I am aware of. Memphis, the home team, has been installed as six point favorites.

Before I spend any time looking at this game I should be honest – I am a huge Memphis fan, and I have had a problem with Tennessee ever since Peyton Manning played there, so my objectivity isn’t all that it could be. That being said, I have to say that I was a little bit surprised to see Memphis favored by that much. I was expecting something more in the range of three or four points. I would lean towards taking Memphis, and the image that sticks in my mind is of how they dismantled Georgetown in the second half. I also don’t think that Tennessee will be able to play zone defense effectively enough to shut down the Memphis offense. I would certainly understand the opinion that the spread is a bit too big, though. I would anticipate that it will shrink a bit, and I would be inclined to wait a bit to see how it moves before I made a bet.

The one thing that excites me most about this game is how both teams came in. They played games on Wednesday night against lesser opponents – Tulane for Memphis, and Auburn for Tennessee. It would have been understandable to see the teams look beyond the easy games and put in a sub-par effort. Instead, both teams played well, won easily, and covered the large spreads. The focus isn’t that surprising given that both teams are exceptionally well coached, but it is still exciting to think that both teams are heading into the big game in top form. I’ll be counting the seconds until this one tips off.

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For those that missed it, Indiana has been in turmoil for more than a week now. It basically boils down to this – head coach Kelvin Sampson is a total moron. He left Oklahoma before he got fired, but not before he caused that school to have to suffer sanctions for his recruiting violations. He somehow managed to get the job at Indiana despite being a total slime bucket. Proving that a snake is always a snake, he did the exact same things at Indiana that he was doing at Oklahoma, got caught, and will now lose his job as well as probably bringing sanctions to another proud and undeserving program. Or I suppose that the programs are deserving, because they were both dumb enough to hire Sampson in the first place.

Anyway, Indiana has been playing great, but they have shown some betting vulnerability recently. It would make sense given the distractions of the implosion of their program that they may not be at there best. This was an especially tempting train of thought because they had two straight rough games – Michigan State and Purdue, and because they were coming off a loss to a Wisconsin team that seems to be a step behind both the Spartans and the Boilermakers. A bet against Indiana in those games would have been too tempting to avoid.

Hopefully you did avoid the temptation. Indiana won both games easily, and covered in both cases. The Michigan State game was ridiculous – they won by 19 as four point favorites. The lesson? It is almost impossible to determine the motivation level of college athletes, and trying too hard to do so is a quick road to poverty.

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Xavier (+2.5) at Rhode Island - Xavier has struggled a bit lately, but they have still won seven in a row even if the margin hasn’t been as big as it could be. This is a battle for A-10 supremacy, and I truly believe that Xavier is the better squad. That makes them attractive here.

Austin Peay (+1) at Tennessee State – Austin Peay is the better team by a wide margin, and they are playing reasonably well. The edge isn’t huge here, but it is big enough to make it worth a play.

Texas A&M (+5) at Texas – Texas is playing as well as anyway and they are at home. Texas A&M is great when they are on their game, but they are wildly inconsistent. The value is on the Longhorns.

Gonzaga (-6.5) at San Diego - The Bulldogs aren’t getting a lot of press this year, but they are still headed to the tourney, and they have made a habit of covering huge spreads lately. I expect them to cover a much more modest one here as they ramp their game up in anticipation of the postseason.

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Louisville (-5.5) at Providence -  I love how Louisville is laying, I think that they match up well here, and I think that Rick Pitino gets a little more fired up than usual(which is saying something) when he goes back to Providence. The Cardinals seem attractive.

Drake (-1.5) at Northern Iowa – Drake had a long winning streak snapped last time out. If they are going to bounce back then this is a great spot for them to do it. The line seems soft. I’d take Drake.

Creighton (+2) at Bradley – I have been very disappointed by Bradley this year. Creighton has played reasonably well, and they know they need to step their game up a bit to make the tournament. This seems like a good place for them to start.

Stanford (+1.5) at Arizona - This is a tough one because I like both teams. Stanford is a bit deeper, though, and they are coming off a tough loss. They should be able to bounce back and win a game that should be fascinating.

Purdue (-8) at Northwestern – Purdue is as hot as any team in the country. Northwestern really, really isn’t. Northwestern can’t compete on any level here, and I think that this one could get ugly.

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Bargains

I’m not saying that these teams are a lock to win or anything, but I think that their chances are better than their price:

Stanford (35/1) – The Cardinal are easiily the second best team in the Pac-10, and that’s a tough conference. This price doesn’t give them enough respect.

Purdue (100/1) – They swept Wisconsin and they beat Michigan State. This might not be the best year for the Big Ten, but leading that conference should always mean something, and this team is way tougher than this price would suggest.

Texas (35/1) – They couldn’t score worth a darn, yet they beat Kansas by playing defense. That’s a sign of a pretty good team.

Xavier (80/1) – At this price these boys are a very live longshot. They have done what is asked of them, and they have the experience of blowing a game against Ohio State last year to build on.

No Value

North Carolina (6/1) – There is a lot wrong with the way this team is playing, and it goes way beyond Ty Lawson’s injury. they are not as sharp as they should be, and they are underpriced as a result.

Georgetown (12/1) – Louisville had their way with the Hoyas in the second half, and other good teams could, too. This is a huge underlay.

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USC at Washington State – The Cougs are in a freefall, and USC has covered six of seven. The Trojans are solid on the road and could be tough here if the odds are attractive.

Northwestern at Michigan State – This one is a bit like watching a car accident. Northwestern is truly terrible, but I really want to see how much damage Michigan State can do in this case. The Spartans are a solid team, but I would love to see just a bit more from them, and this would be a good place to start.

Baylor at Kansas – The Bears have been a very pleasant surprise this year, and they should be fired up to prove that they are for real here. This will be a good test for both teams.

Evansville at Drake – Drake is a covering machine, but this will be a much bigger spread than they are used to, and Evansville played them tough last time the teams met. If the lline gets crazy, which it really could, there could be some value in the visitors.

Georgetown at Louisville – I love how Louisville is playing, and Georgetown is very solid. This should be a slugfest.

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Which brings me to an announcement of great sadness – coach John Brady has been fired by LSU. As a sports bettor that is perhaps the saddest news of the year (And I mean the whole year, even if it is only February). Brady was probably the worst recruiter on the planet, and he was only barely better as a coach. His team was a disaster, and betting against them had been pretty much a lock for much of the year. Now they may actually bring in someone who is competent and can have his team prepared to play. That’s tragic. You’ll be missed, John. Terribly missed.

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