I could care less about this game, obviously. It just means that we are only a month away from the regular season of baseball. As a sports bettor, I love baseball. It goes on every day, there are a full range of options every day, and it forces you to have a patient, long term view. It’s not the most exciting sport to bet on, but it replaces adrenaline with intellectual challenge more than any other endeavor. I can’t wait.

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1. Yao Ming’s season ending injury. My first reaction – wow, that sucks. My second reaction – with Rick Adelman at the helm, the team isn’t going to struggle as much as people think. That should create some value as the public over-reacts.

2. Scott Kazmir needed an MRI on his elbow. Ouch. I am relatively bullish on the Rays, and I think that there is very big value in playing the over on their season total. A lot of that value would evaporate if Kazmir isn’t okay. Thankfully, the MRI didn’t turn up anything.

3. Barry Bonds. The word is that no one seems interested in him, but I don’t buy that for a second. The guy is scum, but his OPS was 1.065 last year. That’s ridiculously good. Sooner or later some team is going to admit that they are interested, they are going to bring himin, and, sadly, they are going to be significantly better for it.

4. Tennessee. You finally get to number one, and then you let it all slip away with a lackluster effort and a loss at Vanderbilt? Oops.

5. NHL trading day. I love what Dallas did in adding Brad Richards. The West is going to be very tough. Pittsburgh took a huge gamble by trading away a ton of young talent for Marian Hossa, but I like the gamble, and I think it will comedown to them and New Jersey in the East.

6. Ottawa Senators. They fired coach John Paddock today. Wow. Remember at the start of the year when they couldn’t lose if they tried? What a wasted opportunity it looks like this season is going to be.

7. Jamaal Magloire signed with Dallas as a free agent. he hasn’t been anywhere near his former All-Star caliber recently, but he’s only 29 and he needs a better situation. This could be it. This makes Dallas significantly better in my eyes. Just what we needed – a Western conference that is even tougher.

8. Drake lost to Missouri State. The Bulldogs are a great story, but this game is an example of why I am going to find it hard to trust in the postseason.

9. Derrick Rose. Memphis’ stud frosh point guard missed practice on Monday with the flu, and is listed as questionable tonight against Tulsa. I will be filing away if and how he plays as an indicator of his heart and grit. Further, I’ll be looking to see how Rose’s whole team bounces back from a disheartening setback. Bettertha Tennessee bounced back from the win, I hope.

10. Congress is after Clemens again. What would it take to make this whole ugly, depressing thing just go away?

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Let me say this up front – I hate the Red Sox and I will be looking for a way to pick against them. They are smug and superior and they make me throw up a little every time I see them. I respect several of their individual players, but as a team I don’t have any time for them at all.

That being said, they are the better team. By a lot. They have better pitching, a better bullpen, better hitting, more depth, and infinitely more experience. They are the favorites, and they unquestionably should be.

The problem, in my mind, is that they are way, way undervalued. They are currently (-231) to win the series. That puts the Rockies at (+211). You can’t tell me that that’s not an unbalanced, public driven set of numbers. Or rather, you can tell me all you want, but I won’t listen.

Exhibit A in my case is the first game. Jeff Francis, Colorado’s ace faces Josh Beckett. Francis is at (+202), and Beckett is at (-220). If you look back over the season, though, you’ll see that these two pitchers met up on a cold June day at Fenway. Francis went five scoreless innings, and Beckett was rocked for six runs in the same five innings. That was before Colorado was ridiculously hot, too. Francis was never anywhere near (+202) on the season, so he clearly shouldn’t be in this case. That means that there is value in him in game one. In there is value in the first game, and the price of the first game is a significant factor in the series price, then I would reason that there is also value in the Rockies for the series.

The Rockies are also getting discredited because of their eight day break. It’s definitely unfortunate, and no team in the history of baseball has had one as long (just think about that for a second), but the team is very aware of the problem, and has been very proactive in their responses to it. I think the team was playing so well because they were playing as a team and supporting each other, and that won’t have to change if the break was managed properly. The team will also be able to cultivate a powerful ‘us against the world’ mentality, because the odds clearly reflect that few people give them a chance.

In the end, it comes down to this – I have playoff profits locked in, and I would rather take a shot at the big returns that Colorado promises (especially since the price is inflated) than take a few pennies back in return for a bet on Boston. Pick: Colorado.

UPDATE: Wow, I couldn’t have been more wrong. I knew that Boston was the better team, and I knew that it was probably by a bit, but I had no idea just how good they were. That was a ridiculously embarrassing series. I tip my hats to the Red Sox (and resist the temptation to spit in their direction).

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1. Paul Byrd is an underappreciated pitcher. Sabathia and Carmona get all the credit in Cleveland, but Byrd was a solid 15-8 this year. In his appearance in the ALDS he handled the Yankees very nicely. He’s not flashy, but chances of a solid outing are very high.

2. Wakefield hasn’t pitched since September 29. In the last two years Wakefield has been hit hard and given up several runs each time he has come back from an extended absence like this one.

3. There is controversy around Wakefield. Many people think that Josh Beckett should start this game on one day less rest than normal, because that will have him ready at full rest for game seven. Boston manager Terry Francona has been vocally opposed to that suggestion, but you have to think that the team, and Wakefield, have been thinking about it. If things go badly early then the second guessing could be a distraction.

Cleveland played well last night, they are at home, and they have a pitching edge. That makes them an attractive underdog in my eyes. Pick: Cleveland (+104)

UPDATE: I was worried for the first few innings when Wakefield had a no-hitter going, but his recent form in situations like this came back to haunt him. 7-3 Cleveland.

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Arizona (+115) vs. Colorado (-135) – I’m torn on this one. I think that Colorado is the choice, but I don’t love the price. Both teams are overachieving compared to what they show on paper, but the Rockies are playing with a cohesiveness and unified vision that I’m not sure I have seen before, and that will be tough to beat. One key to the series will be Jeff Francis’ ability to match up with Arizona ace Brandon Webb. If he can do that, and his recent performances suggest he has a good chance (We’ll know for sure after game one), then Colorado should be fine. Pick: Colorado

Boston (-170) vs. Cleveland (+150) – You can read everything I read about the last Cleveland series and apply it here. Boston is a very good team with solid starters and a good bullpen So is Cleveland. Both teams had the identical regular season record, and both teams played well in the first round. They both have bats that can get hot, and they both play in front of crowds that give them an edge. Boston may have a slight edge in this series, but in my eyes the edge is only very slight, and that makes it pretty much a coin flip. That makes Cleveland at 1.5/1 full of value in my eyes. Pick: Cleveland.

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That’s enough talking about the sport, let’s talk about betting on it. Here’s a quick look at the series prices with my thoughts and my selections. If you want more depth, you can check out what I wrote here.

Colorado (+114) vs. Philadelphia (-124) – Both teams come in with tremendous momentum. To put it simply, I am taking the Rockies. I think the series is basically a coin toss, so I will take the better price. My big concern with the Phillies is their rotation. I’m not super confident that Hamels will stand up well in his first playoff appearance, and the rotation drops off sharply past him. The Rockies are hitting so well that I think they have the edge. Pick: Rockies.

Arizona (+117) vs. Chicago (-127) – I really like what the D-Backs have done this year, and I can’t say I saw it coming, but I think the train stops here. The Cubs are hitting too well, and I don’t think that Arizona can keep up with the offensive output. Brandon Webb will have tremendous pressure on his shoulders. He doesn’t give up long balls, and he will have to win twice for his team to have a chance. Pick: Cubs.

Anaheim (+153) vs. Boston (-163) – The Angels limped into the playoffs, but so did Boston. Pitching on both sides is strong. In the end, though, I like the Red Sx. The Angels have struggled in Fenway badly this year, and that park is such an advantage for Boston. I think that this is destined to be the least interesting of the first round matchups. Pick: Red Sox (though I am hesitant to bet at this low of a price)

Cleveland (+169) vs. New York (-184) – This price is absolutely ridiculous. Without even handicapping the matchup I am taking the Indians. I know that the Yanks swept the six game series, but Sabathia didn’t pitch any of those games, and the Indians have too much pitching in a five game series to be this low. The series is a total coin flip (especially with Cleveland having the home field advantage). I will happily flip a coin with a 1.69/1 payoff if I am right any time. Pick: Cleveland.

UPDATE: This worked out pretty well for me. I was dead wrong on the Chicago series, but I hit the other three. A flat $100 bet on each series would have netted a total profit of $344, and a ROI of 86 percent. There is nothing wrong with that.

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• Marc Bulger has been benched to recover from injuries including broken ribs sustained because his line couldn’t stop my three year old cousin. He’s being replaced by Gus Frerotte. I had no idea that Frerotte was still alive. Bulger will likely be backup because the only other QB the team has is Brock Berlin, and he’s on the practice roster.
• Kwame Brown faces a misdemeanor charge in Georgia after he tried to interfere with a police investigation as his cousin was charged with DUI. So much for him finally growing up and maturing into a solid player.
• The Bucs have Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham to fill in for the injured Cadillac Williams, but they aren’t confident in those options. They have been shopping around, including Mewelde Moore from Minnesota.
• Though this incident seems like a misunderstanding that might go away, senior captain and safety Tony Joiner is the eighth Florida Gator in nine months to get arrested. Will discipline be an issue down the road for his team?
• Stanford QB T.C. Ostrander has suffered a seizure and will be out this weekend against USC. Sophomore Tavita Pritchard, 1 for 2 on the season, will be thrown to the wolves. Stanford’s offense will struggle, but it was probably going to anyway.
• Pat White will be a game time decision for West Virginia.
• Colt McCoy says he feels fine and is over the mild concussion that was partly to blame for his terrible performance against kansas State last weekend.
• The Bears will stick with Brian Griese at QB. I like this move. He wasn’t as bad as Grossman, and it wasn’t his fault that the results weren’t all everyone hoped they would be – the Bears are one broken team.

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The public is jumping all over Jake Peavy and the Padres. I’m not buying it. I don’t love Josh Fogg, but the Rockies are at home, they are the hottest team in baseball, they are playing a team that fizzled down the stretch, and they are +120. That’s a lot of reasons for me to be on Colorado.

UPDATE: What a freaking game. That was high drama at its best, and a perfect start to the playoffs. 9-8 Colorado in 13 innings – you couldn’t have scripted that better.

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I love Washington. They may be one of my favorite teams. Sure, I don’t know all of their players (parts of their lineup are so obscure that I doubt the coaching staff know them, either), I almost never watch them play, and as a Canadian I am a little bitter that they aren’t still in Montreal. None of that matters when it comes to the betting window, though. This team has had the perfect combination of circumstances this year – they are not that bad, yet the public thinks that they are terrible. That’s why I love them. They were picked to be terrible in the preseason, and the public never changed their minds.  They are 73-88 as of Saturday night, yet they have been profitable if you had bet on them for every game all year. Really profitable. There are only 12 teams that have been profitable on the year, and Washington is the fourth best.

Every other team on the list except Texas (8th) had a winning record on the year. The Yankees, Cubs and Mets could all be playoff bound, yet you would have lost money by betting blindly on all of them. Not the Nats. They were profitable on the road, at home, and really profitable on the runline. The public missed the boat on the Nationals more than they have for any team in a long time. I hope you enjoyed some of the benefits of this misperception over the season.

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