An opportunity in Cleveland?
Game four of the ALCS goes tonight in Cleveland, and there may be a chance to get some decent betting value. The pitching matchup is Paul Byrd (+104) for the Indians versus knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (-114) for Boston. I’m on Cleveland for the series and I would suggest that there is value on them here, too. Here are three reasons why:
1. Paul Byrd is an underappreciated pitcher. Sabathia and Carmona get all the credit in Cleveland, but Byrd was a solid 15-8 this year. In his appearance in the ALDS he handled the Yankees very nicely. He’s not flashy, but chances of a solid outing are very high.
2. Wakefield hasn’t pitched since September 29. In the last two years Wakefield has been hit hard and given up several runs each time he has come back from an extended absence like this one.
3. There is controversy around Wakefield. Many people think that Josh Beckett should start this game on one day less rest than normal, because that will have him ready at full rest for game seven. Boston manager Terry Francona has been vocally opposed to that suggestion, but you have to think that the team, and Wakefield, have been thinking about it. If things go badly early then the second guessing could be a distraction.
Cleveland played well last night, they are at home, and they have a pitching edge. That makes them an attractive underdog in my eyes. Pick: Cleveland (+104)
UPDATE: I was worried for the first few innings when Wakefield had a no-hitter going, but his recent form in situations like this came back to haunt him. 7-3 Cleveland.
Tags: alcs, boston-red-sox, cleveland-indians, paul_byrd, tim_wakefieldRelated Stories
POSTED IN: Baseball, Selections
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