My Super Bowl pick
I’ve gone back and forth on this game for two weeks now. I am confident that the Patriots are going to win, but the question has been by how much. The problem is, in my mind, the line is pretty solid. It could go either way. In the end, though, I am going to do the reasonably unthinkable and jump on the favorite. Here are seven reasons I will take the Pats:
1. I can’t get over the fact that Bill Belichick and company have seen Eli Manning once already, so they know what to expect from him. If you listen to the media talk, Manning has suddenly surpassed his brother in excellence. I don’t buy that at all. I think he is a suspect quarterback, and I think that the Patriots have the ability to plan and scheme better than anyone, so they will be able to shut him down.
2. I think that the running game is going to be more of a wash than it is initially thought. The Giants have the better numbers, but the Patriots have been much improved in recent weeks. The Giants were not hugely effective on the ground last time the teams met, and I don’t expect much more here. Ultimately, they have to rely on two inexperienced backs playing on a huge stage against season defensive veterans for New England. The mistakes won’t be made by the Patriots. The difference is that the Giants need a strong running game to succeed, while the Patriots have shown repeatedly that they can win without one.
3. Despite what Plaxico Burress claims, the passing game is a total mismatch. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the league, and he has a ridiculous number of weapons. The Patriots can ruthlessly pick apart teams when they want to, and they will certainly want to here.
4. Experience matters, and the Patriots have all of it. Their players will be more prepared for the game, they are better coached, and they have played under much more pressure all year. Despite what people claim, the Giants haven’t proven that they can come through when it truly matters, and they have way more vulnerability than the Patriots do.
5. I think that the Patriots feel like they have been disrespected for a while now. They aren’t going to like that. They have been an ATS disaster for a couple of months, but they haven’t had much to play for and have gotten a bit complacent. They won’t be this week. I look for them to come out and try to crush the soul out of the Giants like they did against some of the other legitimate contenders they faced during the season – Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Diego, Cincinnati.
6. The public likes the Giants. Two thirds of bets placed have been on the underdog, yet the line hasn’t moved significantly since the first move down from 14. That strikes me as a bit odd, and it would make me uncomfortable to be on the same side as so much dumb money.
7. The Patriots are much, much better. They have a huge advantage at quarterback, they have a better offensive line, they have much better receivers, their running backs are comparable, they have a better secondary, and their coaching staff is far superior. On top of all that, they have not lost this year, and they have toyed with top teams when they have chosen to. I was going to bet that the Giants could keep it close, but ultimately I couldn’t justify saying that a decidedly inferior team was only going to lose by a bit.
There it is then. I will take the Giants and the points. It is down to 11.5 in some places now, but the most attractive price in my mind is -12 -104 at 5Dimes.
Whether you are with me or against me, enjoy the game – drink too much, eat too much, and don’t lose too much. I’ll be back after the game with my 12 observations on what happened.
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