Betting on the Oscars
Movies aren’t sports, but anything you can bet on is worth a look. The Academy Awards nominations were announced on Tuesday, and the odds have been posted at Bodog and other sportsbooks for the winners. This is a fun way to stay interested in Hollywood’s big day, and often a way to make a few bucks as well. Here’s a quick breakdown of the major categories with a focus on betting opportunities. As in most years, the favorites are the way to go in many cases:
Best Picture – This category seems wide open, with the highest price being just 7/2 in the five horse field. There is a clear leader, though – No Country for Old Men is at 5/6. The early buzz is very strong for this movie. If it stays strong for a while, then 5/6 wouldn’t be a terrible price. Atonement seems like decent value at 3/1 given that it won the Golden Globe, but I am less enthusiastic after it got shut out of all the acting and directing categories except for Best Supporting Actress. That has to make you think that the Academy isn’t as enthusiastic as it could be.
Best Director – This is where the best shot to make a solid profit occurs. The leaders in the race are the Coen brothers at 6/5 for No Country. Julian Schnabel, the director of The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, beat them at the Golden Globes, though, and he is a relative bargain at 9/4. In a year without a clear directing leader, the Academy could very well choose to reward a foreign film that is bold and daring. I’ll take a shot on it.
Best Actor – Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood is as close to a lock as there is, but at 1/7 he certainly isn’t an attractive bet.
Best Actress – This is where perhaps the best bargain is available. Julie Christie for Away From Her has been the clear leader for a long time, and she is still a leader after the nominations are out. Her odds are lower than the rest by a fair margin, but at 11/10 they still represent a reasonable return unless something changes significantly in this race. I expect this price to fall as the show gets closer.
Best Supporting Actor – Javier Bardem is another virtual lock at 1/5. I obviously have no interest in that price.
Best Supporting Actress – Cate Blanchett is the leader at 10/11 for her turn as Bob Dylan in I’m Not There. She has all the elements that the Oscars love – she’s a previous winner, she won the Golden Globe, and she played a man. The supporting categories are sometimes tough to call, but Blanchett is reasonable value here.
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