Ultra Sports Bet

Before I make my Super Bowl pick I want to go through the exercise of looking at the teams one at a time and considering the ways that they could win the game. Yesterday it was the Patriots, and today it is the Giants. I should say up front that I am confident that the Patriots are going to win. The point of this exercise is to see if they can win by enough to cover the spread. The Giants can cover because:

1. The Pats are struggling ATS. After covering their first eight games the Patriots have covered just twice in their last ten, and they haven’t covered in five. That’s good news for a team that has covered five in a row, especially when that team has the benefit of a double digit spread.

2. Momentum. I’m not sure that I believe in momentum in football, but if it exists then the Giants have it. They are playing truly possessed football of late – their run through the playoffs has been nothing short of remarkable.

3. Manning is limiting mistakes. The Giants get into trouble when Eli Manning tries to do too much. He is an above average quarterback, but not by a wide margin. In the playoffs he has done what he knows he can do, and that has meant accuracy, fewer turnovers and far more effective overall play. If he keeps that up he can keep this game competitive.

4. The pass rush. The Giants had no luck getting to Brady last time, but the quarterback isn’t likely to be at his full mobillity. If the pass rush can get to him and bother him then they can neutralize the mid and deep passing games that are so potent. If the Giants can’t do it then no one can.

5. Ahmad Bradshaw. A rookie kick returner rarely factors in significantly, but Bradshaw has become much more than that. When he showed late in the year that he was a legitimate running back he created a real matchup problem. He is small and lightning fast. Brandon Jacobs is a bulldozer. Those two trading off carries will help keep the Pats defense off balance, and could leaad to the team to success on the ground.

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