Monday Night Football
New England (-18.5) at Baltimore – I am on Baltimore tonight. There are a couple of emotional based reasons, including the impact of the pride of a very potentially solid defense for Baltimore. My biggest reason to be on Baltimore, though, is the line movement. More than two thirds of the bets made have been on the Pats. Despite that, though, the line has fallen from the opening level of 20.5 down two and a half points to 18 in some places. That’s contrary to expectations, and can be a good indicator that the books don’t fear action on the Pats. That means that there is value in finding the best price on the birds you can find. At this time that’s +20 at Bodog. At the price of +1150 on the moneyline I will probably throw a couple of bucks on that, too. Miracles can happen, after all. Pick: Baltimore
UPDATE: Soooo close. The cover was very easy, and the game was very close to being, and probably should have been, a monumental upset. I would have enjoyed winning an 11.5/1 bet, but I am still happy to have been on the right side for the game.
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