Ultra Sports Bet

Last year the story in college basketball was all about two freshmen. Greg Oden at Ohio State had the spotlight early, but was held back by an injury that limited him until Christmas. In his absence, Kevin Durant stepped up for Texas and put together one of the greatest freshmen seasons in college basketball history. Oden came on strong at the end of the year, though, leading his team to the national championship game, while the Longhorns were knocked out in the second round. Both guys moved on to the pros and left the stage to the next class of youngsters.

And what a class it is. Whereas it was a story of two players with a few lesser lights last year, this year’s  group of freshmen is an embarrassment of riches. The way things have started out it seems as if there are six or eight freshmen who would be the best out there in most other years. In part we have David Stern and his prohibition of high school players in the draft for this freakish class, but it partly has to be just a fluke of genetics and timing, too.

Betting on the freshmen is a bit of a challenge. Their lack of experience can make them less consistent than more seasoned stars, and the betting public will flock to them as they put up big numbers and draw headlines. That can make it hard to find value. On the other hand, a solid young player can dramatically elevate a team ahead of expectations and create underlays for bettors. Davidson, for example, covered nine of their first 11 games and were 19-7-1 ATS overall in large part because it took a while for people to figure out just how good frosh stud Stephen Curry was. Like in most other betting situations, it is crucial to evaluate individual games for value instead of playing or avoiding the top freshmen as a rule.

If you haven’t tuned into college basketball yet you might not be tuned into the best freshmen out there. Here, in alphabetical order, are my top ten youngsters:

Jerryd Bayless, Arizona – Arizona had at least two big problems last year – they were lousy at outside shooting, and they struggled on defense. This shooting guard helps on both fronts. He’s as smooth as silk from long range, and he is probably the best defender on the team without even having played a game.

Michael Beasley, Kansas State  – If you haven’t heard of Beasley, there is only one thing you need to know about him – in his first game he broke the all-time Big 12 single game record with 24 rebounds. He’s averaging 31 points a game on top of that. This kid is disgustingly good.

Corey Fisher, Villanova – How can you not be excited about the arrival of a lightning fast, athletic guard at Villanova. The place is a guard factory and coach Jay Wright is a master at both recruiting guards and using them to maximum potential. Fisher will be slowed at the start with knee tendinitis, but will get worked into a three guard backcourt as soon as he is healthy. I expect fireworks when that happens.

Eric Gordon, Indiana – I’m optimistic that we are on the verge of a renaissance for the Big Ten, and guys like Gordon will be at the forefront of it. He’s a shooting guard who can score in his sleep. If I had to pick a favorite to lead the conference in scoring there wouldn’t be too many players, if any, ahead of Gordon. He started it off right with 33 points in his debut.

Kosta Koufos, Ohio State – There is nothing worse than having to follow in the shoes of a legend, so being the next Buckeye center is unenviable. Koufos wasn’t getting a ton of attention at the end of the last high school season, but he was amazing playing for Greece at the U-18 European Championships this summer. Unlike most of the players on this list who have obvious and immediate talent, Koufos will be exciting to watch more to see if he can realize his potential. 18 points and eight boards in his first game was a promising start.

Kevin Love, UCLA – UCLA has made it to the Final Four two years in a row despite having Richard Mbah a Moute playing in a power forward role that isn’t his best spot. Imagine how good they can be now that they have Love, a prototype power forward to fill the position. Mbah a Moute can move over to his preferred spot, and Love can do what he does so well. He’s averaging a double double in two games.

O.J. Mayo, USC – I’m so sick of hearing about Mayo, and he hasn’t even played a game yet. He’s been the talk of basketball circles for years, and is seen as a lock. His first game was solid, as he put up 32 points to lead the way for the Trojans. It’s got to be more than a bit of a concern, though, that despite that effort his team lost by 15 to lowly Mercer.

Patrick Patterson, Kentucky – Kentucky got off to a rough start by losing to Gardner-Webb in their second game, but it was not Patterson’s fault. The forward had 12 points and 12 rebounds in the game, and he blocked two shots as well. It’s a pretty good start, and Patterson will be given every chance to shine this year because his team is much weaker up front than they are in the back court.

Derrick Rose, Memphis – Here’s my personal favorite. Memphis has as many good guards as any team in the country, and returns the team tat was so good last year, but Rose is so good that he will be the starting point guard from the start. He has averaged 19 points per game while leading his team to their first two wins.

Kyle Singler, Duke – I absolutely hate Duke, so a guy has to be pretty good before I am willing to acknowledge him. He’s pretty much what you would expect from Coach K – a relentless white guy who is deadly from the perimeter. Unlike some of Duke’s other players of that ilk, though, Singler is also a fine shot blocker and an excellent defender.

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