Sunday, Sunday, Sunday
There may be more, but as of Friday night these are the NFL games I will be paying speciall attention to:
Philadelphia (+2.5) at Washington – Neither of these teams are playing particularly well right now. The difference, I think, is that Washington has the chance to rebound and make the playoffs, while this has the stench of a lost season for Philadelphia. Washington has played better at home than on the road, and they are back in front of their faithful after a couple of weeks away. Given the reasonable spread, the value is on the Redskins. Pick: Washington.
Dallas (-1.5) at N.Y. Giants – This is being painted as a battle for the top of the NFC, but I’m not buying it. New York is getting way too much credit for it’s six game winning streak. The last four wins have been against a true pack of losers – Miami, San Francisco, Atlanta, and the Jets. They looked pathetic against Miami, and I am not certain that you could call their offense trustworthy or particularly legitimate. This game could be a shootout, and I don’t like the Giants’ chances of keeping up. Tony Romo isn’t going to be as bothered by the pass rush as other quarterbacks with less swagger have. Pick: Dallas.
Detroit (+1.5) at Arizona – Try as I might, I can’t come up with a particularly good reason not to take a shot on Detroit here. This line really caught me off guard. I’m going to quit trying to over think it and just put my money down. Pick: Detroit.
Indianapolis (-3.5) at San Diego – I think that there is a ton of value in Indianapolis. They are going to be pissed off after their loss last weekend, and they will take it out on the Chargers. San Diego looked dismal last week, and they have only beaten bad teams this year. Indy has some injury issues, but I don’t think they are serious enough to overcome the advantage that Indy has in how they have been playing. Pick: Indianapolis.
Buffalo (-2.5) at Miami - I love how Buffalo has played the last three games. I don’t love anything about Miami. They are ravaged by injuries, they have nothing to play for, and they see to be self-destructing under the watch of a terrible coaching staff. Buffalo is playing like they believe in what they are doing, and I am a sucker for a plucky upstart. That makes the Bills the pick. Pick: Buffalo.
UPDATE: A very frustrating Sunday. Buffalo and Dallas did just what I hoped, but nothing else went right. Washington collapsed badly at the end, Detroit just forgot to show up, and Indy lost one of the most disgustingly bad football games in recent memory. 2-3 and the first losing weekend in the NFL in a long time.
5 Comments
Nice calls all around. I think it’ll turn out as a 4-1 weekend on these picks with NY getting the win over Dallas but there’s definite value, especially on Buffalo, Detroit, and Indy.
I certainly wouldn’t complain about 4-1 Kris. Frankly, I wouldn’t complain about 3-2, either.
Good luck Sunday.
Ended up 3-2-1 on the day. I was pulling hard for Indy to get the very unlikely comeback but it didn’t happen. Good day as both Hockey bets hit.
This was definitely ‘underdog’ Sunday. I think only two three teams covered the spread Sunday; the Bears, Cowboys and Packers. Fortunately, I played three games with the Colts – losers, Bills – push and Bears – winners. So I didn’t get stung too badly. I had a hunch for the boys, but opted to play the Bills instead. Hindsight is always great, but seeing as the Bills are playing the Pats this week.. ah well. Also got lucky on the Bears game. Anyone who watched that game knows the Raiders should have won.
It would have been a big day and good value for betting the underdogs.
It definitely was a dog day, James. Dogs were 8-4-1 against the spread on Sunday, and seven of the dogs won outright, including St. Louis as 10 point dogs. You could have done very well by playing the moneyline.