Sunday football
It’s not a very interesting weekend to me on the football front. The Thursday games were boring, but they represented most of the weekend’s value in my mind. Only one NFL game captures my interest. Don’t worry, though – I have another game for you to look at, too.
Houston (+3) at Cleveland – Cleveland has won four in a row at home. Houston has won two straight, but I’m not convinced that they are for real. They’ve matched up situationally well the last two games, and I am not confident that they will again here. This game opened with a spread of six. At that level I wasn’t interested, but when it dropped to the key number of three it definitely got my attention. Three points is essentially home field advantage in the NFL, so this line says that these two teams are essentially equal. I don’t think that that gives Cleveland enough credit. Pick: Cleveland
Saskatchewan Roughriders (-11) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers – The Grey Cup, for the uninitiated, is the championship of the Canadian Football League. It’s a big deal in my country, and is especially big this year because these two teams have by far the most rabid fans in the country. Saskatchewan comes into the final game off of a huge and somewhat shocking win over B.C., the best team in the league over the regular season. They are playing extremely well and have a clear edge. Winnipeg would have been in a bit of trouble here at their best because the Eastern conference was the weaker of the two. They are far from their best, though – their star quarterback broke his wrist in the Eastern final and they are forced to start Ryan Dinwiddie, who the hardcore among you will recognize as a former Boise State starter. Saskatchewan’s defense smothered the powerful B.C. offense, and I strongly suspect that they will be able to do the same against the inexperienced Dinwiddie. The line seems high for a championship game, but I still believe that there is value in the favorites. Pick: Saskatchewan.
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