Ultra Sports Bet

There are four games that have caught my eye this weekend because of the value they offer:

Indiana (-1.5) at Northwestern – This is a game between two teams who are better than they have been in recent years, but still are a long way from being great. Of the two, though, I think Indiana is further ahead. It hasn’t been a smooth road, and they were struggling before a big win last week, but I think that their offense has more depth and is a bit more reliable. Northwestern has had big wins, but they seem to be playing above themselves when they do well. Given that the spread is essentially a pick, I think that the value is with the Hoosiers. Pick: Indiana.

Michigan (-2.5) at Wisconsin – I have a firm rule that I will never bet on my beloved Michigan Wolverines. Rules, of course, are made to be broken. I am a little concerned that Michigan won’t be at full effort because a win here doesn’t affect the team’s ability to win the conference if they beat Ohio State. Regardless, Michigan is on a roll, they are playing with focus and determination, and I don’t think that Lloyd Carr will let them slack off – this Ohio State game matters as much as any in a long time, and they need to stay sharp to win it. I wouldn’t be interested in betting on this game if the spread were a little wider, but I had set it in my mind at well over the key number of three, so the fact that my Wolverines only need to win by a field goal to pay off here gives the bet too much value to pass up. Pick: Michigan.

Virginia (+3.5) at Miami - I love this game. From a betting perspective, that is – I doubt it will be fascinating to watch. Virginia has been playing tough, determined football, and they stay close virtually every time out. They are in the unfamiliar position of being ranked, and I think that they want to stay there. They have much more to play for than Miami, they are a better team right now, and they are solid value at this price. Pick: Virginia.

Kentucky (-3.5) at Vanderbilt – The Wildcats are going through a rough stretch right now. After a very impressive start, Kentucky has lost three of four, and have had a word of troubles. They’ve had a week off to get their act together, and I look for them to finish strong down the stretch. Vanderbilt has a nice win against South Carolina on their record, but for the most part they just haven’t been good enough against top teams. I think that this game has the potential to get out of hand. Pick: Kentucky.

UPDATE: You’d never guess that the Big Ten is my favorite conference, because I sucked at picking them this weekend. Thankfully, I am good at picking conferences I don’t care about. Kentucky won a close game and covered, and Virginia laid a royal beatdown on Miami. That leaves me at an acceptable 3-2 for the weekend (including Thursday). I’m not making excuses, but I never would have been on Michigan if I had have made the choices late Saturday morning instead of Friday night, because the game was very different once Mike Hart wasn’t playing. Regardless, I made the pick and I will live with it.

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