It’s Thursday night again
Oregon (-10) at Arizona – I’m going to play this game because I have a good streak going on Thursday nights, and to give you all something to read, but it’s one I would probably pass most days. On the surface, I really like Oregon here. The Wildcats only have an average defense, and they look better than they really are thanks to their two game winning streak. They have won two in a row by beating up on struggling teams – Washington and UCLA. In both cases they gave up more points than I would have liked. I think that the Ducks will use their offensive balance to score, and Arizona and their one-dimensional, pass-only offense will struggle to keep up. Oregon has everything to play for here – they want to stay in the number two spot for their shot at the national title, and they are avenging an embarrassing lost to Arizona last year. Oregon has a clear edge, and I am comfortable with this line.
One thing makes me very uneasy here. The line opened at 13, a large majority of bettors are on Oregon, yet the line is falling significantly and fairly quickly. That either means that the books aren’t afraid of Oregon action for some reason because they are confident in Arizona, or that the smart money is pouring in on Arizona. Either way, the size of the line drop given the situation is why I would normally pass this game. For fun, though, I’ll make a pick. Pick: Oregon.
UPDATE: What a disaster. Dennis Dixon went down early, Brady Leaf played like we have come to expect from the Leaf family, and yet another number two has gone down the drain. There clearly was a good reason to pass this game.
1 Comment
It isn’t looking too good at halftime especially with Dixon out but they could still pull it out, just seems unlikely.