Picking the baseball series winners
The baseball playoffs are here, and I couldn’t be happier. Baseball is a great, great sport, but it is truly at its best in the playoffs. The drama that the sport is capable of is incredible.
That’s enough talking about the sport, let’s talk about betting on it. Here’s a quick look at the series prices with my thoughts and my selections. If you want more depth, you can check out what I wrote here.
Colorado (+114) vs. Philadelphia (-124) – Both teams come in with tremendous momentum. To put it simply, I am taking the Rockies. I think the series is basically a coin toss, so I will take the better price. My big concern with the Phillies is their rotation. I’m not super confident that Hamels will stand up well in his first playoff appearance, and the rotation drops off sharply past him. The Rockies are hitting so well that I think they have the edge. Pick: Rockies.
Arizona (+117) vs. Chicago (-127) – I really like what the D-Backs have done this year, and I can’t say I saw it coming, but I think the train stops here. The Cubs are hitting too well, and I don’t think that Arizona can keep up with the offensive output. Brandon Webb will have tremendous pressure on his shoulders. He doesn’t give up long balls, and he will have to win twice for his team to have a chance. Pick: Cubs.
Anaheim (+153) vs. Boston (-163) – The Angels limped into the playoffs, but so did Boston. Pitching on both sides is strong. In the end, though, I like the Red Sx. The Angels have struggled in Fenway badly this year, and that park is such an advantage for Boston. I think that this is destined to be the least interesting of the first round matchups. Pick: Red Sox (though I am hesitant to bet at this low of a price)
Cleveland (+169) vs. New York (-184) – This price is absolutely ridiculous. Without even handicapping the matchup I am taking the Indians. I know that the Yanks swept the six game series, but Sabathia didn’t pitch any of those games, and the Indians have too much pitching in a five game series to be this low. The series is a total coin flip (especially with Cleveland having the home field advantage). I will happily flip a coin with a 1.69/1 payoff if I am right any time. Pick: Cleveland.
UPDATE: This worked out pretty well for me. I was dead wrong on the Chicago series, but I hit the other three. A flat $100 bet on each series would have netted a total profit of $344, and a ROI of 86 percent. There is nothing wrong with that.
3 Comments
Agreed on the Cleveland/New York series. The Yankees’ offense notwithstanding, these are two evenly matched teams.
Arizona and Chicago should be very tight. If the Diamondbacks get any offense (which they haven’t most of the season), they could be tough.
Hooray for picking the Sox, even if the payoff is low. Coin flip for CI/NYY agreed, with a special wish that the Yanks don’t let the door hit their “tails” on the way out.
Despite the low payoffs, I’ve gotta disagree with most of your picks in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs.
The Phillies pitching may not be there, but this is the most dynamic offense by far in the National League this year. They’re my pick to represent the NL in the World Series this year, though I wouldn’t be surprised if that doesn’t happen. All the same, they’re not going home this early in post-season.
The Cubs / Diamondbacks is probably actually the biggest coinflip in the first round. Because of that, this is the one where I go ahead and move with the underdog. If I’m betting, gimme ‘Zona here.
No disagreement on the Sox.
The Yanks are one of my least favorite teams in all of baseball … more out of spite than anything else. All the same, their my World Series winner this year, so I can’t bet against ‘em in the first round no matter what the odds are.