Chasing serious longshots
I think he’s somewhat kidding, but Jay Cronley wrote an interesting article on ESPN.com about how to hit 50/1 winners at the racetrack. His theory is that you only have to hit a $100 winner one time in 50 to break even. The math is obviously true, but I doubt that a lot of bettors have the discipline and mental strength to endure that many losses with the prospect of a win somewhere down the road. Most people would panic and change what they are doing as the inevitable losses piled up. Still, chasing the longshots can be a fun thing to do during a lazy day at the track, and some of what he talks about is relevant and interesting even if you aren’t looking to make your fortune on just one bet. One of his points in particular jumped out at me:
‘Lousy horses picking up decent jockeys.’ – This is always something to look out for. The jockeys and their agents know more about what’s going on at the track than you ever could. Jockey’s don’t like wasting their time or giving up a chance to make some money, so a serious upgrade in jockey is a sign that a horse might be ready for a big run.
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