$1000 Bankroll - The Oscars
As I have done in the past, I thought it would be fun to take a mythical $1000 bankroll, figure out how I would bet it on the Oscars, and see how it goes. There’s a problem, though - there just isn’t a lot of value out there. There are a couple of interesting props, like a total on the number of speeches that will be interrupted by music because they go too long, but without historical data on that it is just a guess. I hate betting on a guess.
The problem this year is that, for people who have been following things closely, there is very little suspense with the show this year. With the exception of Best Supporting Actress all of the major categories have a heavy favorite, and any other result would be a serious upset. That means that you have to content yourself with a little bit of relatively secure return instead of a lot of potential profit with high risk.
The way I am going to try to make some money with this mythical bankroll is something I would never do with my own hard earned cash - I am putting it all in one place. The best combination of a (relatively) sure win and a (relatively) decent price is with best director. The Coen brothers are going to win, and you can get 1/5 for it. That’s a pitiful 20 percent return, but, sadly, I think that that is pretty good for this event. You could get a better return for No Country for Old Men as best picture (1/3 vs. 1/5), but I am a bit more wary of an upset there than in the director. That’s it, then - $1000 on the Coen brothers to win best director.
Tags: joel and ethan coen, no country for old men, oscarsRelated Stories
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